Am I the only one, or are others skeptical of the sockeye numbers that ADF&G has reported in the last few days? I think there have always been apportionment problems in big pink years but these numbers are ridiculous. Comments?
Kenai Sockeye Counts
- Thread starter BN2FSH
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I talked to ADFG biologist running site today and they are aware of the concern and internally having discussions. However, do not jump to a conclusion these are not correct but one should check for potential errors. So here are some data he indicated to me. The majority of the counts are on the south bank. That typically is not the bank pink salmon counting issues have come up. The north bank pinks spawn in front of the counters but that is not a problem on the south bank. The fishwheel catches increased significantly on the days the counts increased. This is an indication that sockeye numbers were increasing and is independent of the counters. The size of the sockeye are very small less than 500 mm and some as small as 333mm. The return this year was basically not harvested so the whole return basically is entering the river. The fish condition is a mixed of colored fish and bright fish indicating new fish entering the inlet. Now here are some concerns that need further investigation. This is a record pink salmon return above the counter approaching 600,000 fish. A small bias in counting could result in a large error for sockeye. That bias could be that sockeye are caught in the wheel in a higher portion than pinks. That has not been the historical trend but could happen this year. Next coho salmon returns to the Kenai can be between 100,000 and 300,000 fish. Coho are not caught in the wheels in portion to abundance as they migrate offshore more. The total targets is being over-estimated because of the large volume of targets which would skew the counts. The expansion of subset of the hourly counts could be wrong. The Kasilof River is not showing a similar increase which causes some concern. Also the downstream chinook netting program and counters are not seeing sockeye in this abundance but the netting program tends to be more mid-river. ADFG has the data so I would suggest anyone interested should call the Comm Fish Area Manager or the sonar project leader. My point is that one should let ADFG do its job and sometime post season ask for a white paper on what they found out.
Of more significance is the fact that due to regulations and ADFG actions over 50% of the sockeye entering the Kenai River are spawning in August for over a decade. This can result in a major shift in run timing from normal run timing which peaks in July. If these counts are real they are red flags to managers and Board of Fish to start to realize that the present regulations are causing a significant biological alternation. That is not good fishery management.
Finally, the return to Kenai this year is estimated at around 1.6-1.9 million fish. The bulk come from brood year 2015. In that year the fall fry was around 29 million and they were only 0.8 grams. The spawning escapement was 1.4 milllion. At 0.8 grams we know overwinter survival decreases significantly. So if survival was only 40% that would mean 12 million smolt out. Marine survival would be around 15%. Thus the poor return would be a combination of freshwater and marine issues not just marine. The Kasilof return was not impacted at the same level as Kenai and appears to be down about 15-20% suggesting freshwater issues are not significant in this system. It also suggests the assumptions on smolt numbers for Kenai are ballpark reasonable. I hope ADFG continues to study the glacial lakes in the Kenai. ADFG has one of the largest datasets on sockeye production in glacial lakes and it would be a shame not continue these studies.
Of more significance is the fact that due to regulations and ADFG actions over 50% of the sockeye entering the Kenai River are spawning in August for over a decade. This can result in a major shift in run timing from normal run timing which peaks in July. If these counts are real they are red flags to managers and Board of Fish to start to realize that the present regulations are causing a significant biological alternation. That is not good fishery management.
Finally, the return to Kenai this year is estimated at around 1.6-1.9 million fish. The bulk come from brood year 2015. In that year the fall fry was around 29 million and they were only 0.8 grams. The spawning escapement was 1.4 milllion. At 0.8 grams we know overwinter survival decreases significantly. So if survival was only 40% that would mean 12 million smolt out. Marine survival would be around 15%. Thus the poor return would be a combination of freshwater and marine issues not just marine. The Kasilof return was not impacted at the same level as Kenai and appears to be down about 15-20% suggesting freshwater issues are not significant in this system. It also suggests the assumptions on smolt numbers for Kenai are ballpark reasonable. I hope ADFG continues to study the glacial lakes in the Kenai. ADFG has one of the largest datasets on sockeye production in glacial lakes and it would be a shame not continue these studies.
TR
Active member
Good stuff Nerka. I suspected the run would be late since the peak didn't hit in July.
Gambler
Member
My family and I went down and fished the river (Soldotna) over the weekend. We caught a ton of fish -- at least 90% were pinks. The amount of fish in the river was staggering. Even with the silty water, you could see fish moving up all the time. We did end up with a dozen reds on Saturday and 4 on Sunday (left at noon). About half were blushed whiled the other half were bright.
Not to be argumentative, but from our experience, I would say they are counting a lot of pinks.
- Gambler
Not to be argumentative, but from our experience, I would say they are counting a lot of pinks.
- Gambler
Sport fish catch rates do not reflect abundance very well relative to sonar counts. This is because fishing success depends on location, species behavior (aggressive vs non aggressive), distribution nearshore, water clarity and volume and the list goes on. One would expect more pinks caught than sockeye. Over 600,000 pinks are by the counter so they are the majority. That is why ADFG needs to look at everything in detail to separate these variables. You may be right but speculation can also get one down the wrong road. Your observations are important and more should report to ADFG as numerous reports help set a pattern.
I don't bite on the 100k reds. that river is CHOKED with pinks. how many times have we seen this where late in the year there just happens to be a ton of reds hit the river and counts skyrocket but at the same time the river is choked with pinks?
Exactly! you had the river choked with pinks. I really wonder that their pink count is? I know they don't keep count but that would tell a tale as well. No way there are that many reds hitting like a wave this late in the year and at the same time the pinks hit and plug the river??? Nope not buying it. I agree Rambler.!
4merguide
Well-known member
Not following you, as they do keep count of the pinks. In fact according to them, yesterday the Kenai set a new record for pinks (since they started recording back in 1980) at 220,398. There were supposedly 57K reds as well. They also stated that the combined species at 281k also set a new record. Just letting you know so don't shoot the messenger!.....lol.
So here is a potential example how sensitive counts can be in pulling out minor species. This is why the chinook counter failed. So the counts yesterday were 280 total. Pink 220 and sockeye 60,000 ( rounded here). Lets say the true count is really 30000 sockeye and pinks 250k. 30k additional pinks is little more than 13% error for pinks but 100 % for sockeye. Now usually with pinks they are caught at higher rates than sockeye because they are smaller. But this year the sockeye are very small right now so they may be closer to shore and caught at a higher rate. So what to do if this is true? One could do some sensitivity analysis and see the impact on other data sets and management decisions. Also look for contradictions in the other data sets. For example fresh bright fish are new fish. King counts went up which happens when sockeye enter. So no easy answer without some good science.
Cohoangler
New member
Nerka! Nice to hear from you. Hope you are doing well, wherever you are nowadays.
I will presume Nerka and nerka2 are the same person on this BB…...
I noticed your statement:
“Of more significance is the fact that due to regulations and ADFG actions over 50% of the sockeye entering the Kenai River are spawning in August for over a decade. This can result in a major shift in run timing from normal run timing which peaks in July. If these counts are real they are red flags to managers and Board of Fish to start to realize that the present regulations are causing a significant biological alternation. That is not good fishery management.”
That is an interesting observation. I would say the same about LR Chinook. They enter the river predominately in July. But since the recreational season closes on July 31, those that enter the river after August 1 experience little or no angling pressure. So it’s possible, perhaps likely, the adults entering after July 31 have a higher spawning success rate, which might alter the spawn timing of future generations of LR Chinook.
Is it happening with sockeye? Perhaps, but the fishing pressure is probably not recreational angling and PU fishery. It’s more likely the drift fleet and the ESSN, given the power of that fishery, and the many decades it’s been around.
I will presume Nerka and nerka2 are the same person on this BB…...
I noticed your statement:
“Of more significance is the fact that due to regulations and ADFG actions over 50% of the sockeye entering the Kenai River are spawning in August for over a decade. This can result in a major shift in run timing from normal run timing which peaks in July. If these counts are real they are red flags to managers and Board of Fish to start to realize that the present regulations are causing a significant biological alternation. That is not good fishery management.”
That is an interesting observation. I would say the same about LR Chinook. They enter the river predominately in July. But since the recreational season closes on July 31, those that enter the river after August 1 experience little or no angling pressure. So it’s possible, perhaps likely, the adults entering after July 31 have a higher spawning success rate, which might alter the spawn timing of future generations of LR Chinook.
Is it happening with sockeye? Perhaps, but the fishing pressure is probably not recreational angling and PU fishery. It’s more likely the drift fleet and the ESSN, given the power of that fishery, and the many decades it’s been around.
ADFG needs to get back to basic biology and away from user group opportunity. About a decade ago the ADFG gave the Board of Fish full authority to make regulation changes that could result in poor management. This was and is a direct result of the political pressure in UCI. I retired in 2000 because both I and the Area biologist was not allowed to confront a Board member on the record for giving false information. Slowly over time ADFG does not engage the Board in trying to stop harmful regulations or at a minimum make the Board aware of them. The LR chinook is a prime example. There is not way the exploitation rate should be near 0 in August but near 50% in July. Same for sockeye.
Various users have been arguing "They are doing it Wrong!" during the season for years when measuring returns.
Later, when the final report comes out, not much is said about accuracy. Several years later the report is accepted as accurate.
How about give ADF&G the opportunity to do the right thing and trust them once..
And the argument that the regulations are altering the spawning timing has been around a long time and appears to be getting stronger with time. Looks like the Law of Unintended Consequences has overtaken the good intentions of the Board.
Later, when the final report comes out, not much is said about accuracy. Several years later the report is accepted as accurate.
How about give ADF&G the opportunity to do the right thing and trust them once..
And the argument that the regulations are altering the spawning timing has been around a long time and appears to be getting stronger with time. Looks like the Law of Unintended Consequences has overtaken the good intentions of the Board.
fishNphysician
Well-known member
Time for CommFish to get busy on that WHITE PAPER.
