Kenai king run... late or weak?

[fishNphysician]

From the other thread:

I heard a 1000 fish (Kenai kings) went in on the 14th if you believe the sonar counters. So at this point there is no panic in that fishery either.

For the record, the sonar only tallied 644 fish on the 14th.

According to ADFG's latest Kenai summary #2, the exploitation is about 37% …. and that’s not counting H&R mort’s and upriver harvest.

We have an escapement of roughly 5K as we speak. We need at least 12.7 K more to make the lower BEG. At an exploitation of 37% we will need at least 20.2 K more fish in the river to get that 12.7 K additional escapement. If the king sonar shuts down sometime in the first week of August due to the first wad of pinks (and it’ll be a big wad if the gillnets aren’t fishing much) we basically have 20 or so days of counting left for the season. We’re gonna have to average at the very least 1000 fish a day at the sonar for the rest of the season. Anything short of that will leave us below goal…. unless of course something is done to curtail in-river exploitation.

Seems to me that it would be less than prudent to count on a minimum 1000/day every day for the rest of the season when the run has been significantly under-performing so far. Given the uncertainty, a precautionary approach should rule the day. Some sort of in-river restriction is probably warranted if we can’t get at least 1000/day average over the next 5 days counts. It’ll just be that much more difficult to make up the deficit in the remaining days of the season. The big question is how restrictive do we need to be?

 

[Marcus]

Armchair management. . .

Armchair management. . .

Doc: I cut and pasted your armchair management prognostications, suggestions, and questions above and e-mailed them to area and regional ADF&G biologists. Maybe they can help you out. Heck, maybe your advice — "a precautionary approach should rule the day" — will help them out. Reckon?

Sent to (in case you'd like to communicate with these guys directly):
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]

 

[fishNphysician]

George got his copy last night.

 

[Marcus]

Good start. . .

Good start. . .

That's a good start, doc, — Mr. Pappas is the chief area ADF&G Sportfish Division biologist in the Soldotna office. You'd do better to go further and copy in Mr. Barry Straton, Regional Biologist, Mr. Kelly Hepler ([email protected]) who is ADF&G Sportfish Division manager, and Commissioner McKie Campbell ([email protected]).

Satisfy my curiosity, please: I'm assuming from "fishNphysician" and "The Keen Eye MD" that you're an eye doctor of some sort. If that's so, then you're well-trained as such.

Are you also trained as a fisheries biologist? Or have you simply picked up all these facts and figures by selective reading of professionally generated material? How much formal training have you had in fisheries biology and management?

It's hard to take you seriously when you say things like "Alaskans don't buy salmon to eat" and as you harp incessantly on "More kings in the river." Such talk makes it easy to assume that your use of data and your advice is agenda-driven, whereas Alaska's fisheries managers have broader concerns to deal with than a small interest group's addiction to fishing for large fish. What are your credentials as a fisheries biologist as you attempt to inform and advise ADF&G biologists, managers, and the readers of this forum? Thanks. . .

 

[wildog]

"Armchair management"

"Armchair management"

Doc: I cut and pasted your armchair management prognostications, suggestions, and questions above and e-mailed them to area and regional ADF&G biologists. Maybe they can help you out. Heck, maybe your advice — "a precautionary approach should rule the day" — will help them out. Reckon?

Sent to (in case you'd like to communicate with these guys directly):
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]

Marcus,
I don't think it's armchair management. Doc is one of the people out there on the water regularly, paying attention to what actually happens. He's not sitting back on a couch watching a football game, he's out there. If fish and game biologists would listen to fishermen now and then they might learn a few things, and people wouldn't always say how stupid they are. (And they do, regularly) Some of the dumbest things I have seen were from fish and game biologists. I remember one time on the Elk River in Oregon I had a 30 pound hen laying on the sand and a F & G biologist come by and tell me what a nice looking buck it was. After a short arguement I cut it and showed him the eggs, and told him that fishermen are not dumb because they don't have a biology degree at some university. There are a lot of intelligent people out there that I would definitely call experts, they have sometimes 50 years of experience on the water, and they don't work for fish and game, and they don't have biology degrees. There are also plenty of Fish and Game personnel that are experts, but many seem really stupid. I have seen them do too many senseless things, completely change philosophies, ect., over the years to trust what they do 100%. I hope I didn't hurt feelings here, that's my view from 25 years fishing rivers.

 

[Marcus]

The social necessity of formal training...

The social necessity of formal training...

Wildog: Intelligence doesn't equal training — an intelligent person can be untrained, and therefore ignorant, in any area of expertise. And being an avid fisherman doesn't qualify anyone as a fisheries biologist or resource manager.

Anyone can express an opinion, but when someone starts advising a professional in any area of training, then I'd like to know his credentials for doing so.

Nor does the fact that there are fools in all occupations discredit the social function of trained professionals be they firemen, police, or resource managers.

 

[Nerka]

more facts some opinion

more facts some opinion

First, let me clear up something. I heard the number 1000 yesterday before the counts were finalized. I guess they were based on some preliminary evaluation. So 644 as doc points out is the number that is published today.

Second, the forecast of chinook is at this point for a total return of 41,000 fish plus or minum 7,000 (this from the an area sport fish biologist today). If they stop counting in August due to pinks there may be some adjustment to the counts for missed days of counting.

The plans state that the Department is to make an assessment on 20 July and so 5 days from now will be a major decision point - as I said in another post it is not time to panic for any stock.

Finally, on the question of biologist vs. fisherman knowledge. It does not make a hoot to a scientist. A scientist works with data and results that others can see or reproduce. Therefore, what is important are the merits of the arguements using data. However, one must admit that most biologist should be trained as scientist. Therefore they should be able to look at large volumes of data, create statistical analsysis of that data, and look for relatiionships via models or other techniques to make the arguements better for the scientific community.

This is something that gets lost in some of these discussions. Just because one has the authority of a degree does not mean that he or she is right - it should just mean a higher probablity of making a strong case based on data. So when anyone hears opinion then the right question to ask is what are the supporting data for that opinion or conclusion.

So when doc says that a precautionary approach should be taken he based it on an average escapement for the next 20 days. At least we know his rationale. However, the management plans have taken into consideration the uncertainity of making projection today vs. the 20th. What they show is that today's projections have a high degree of uncertainity and the probability of making an error in judgement is high. However, by waiting a few days, as doc suggested, the probability of error goes down to acceptable levels.

It is easy to say take a precautionary approach but in truth the Board of Fish, which are not scientist for the most part, is balancing the economic and social considerations along with the biological risk in this process. The 20th date is the result of that process - it may be wrong to some and that is why Marcus is correct that changes to this date should come from the Board of Fish unless ADF&G has very strong data to indicate otherwise.

 

[Marcus]

Presumption. . .

Presumption. . .

A scientist works with data and results that others can see or reproduce. Therefore, what is important are the merits of the arguements using data. However, one must admit that most biologist should be trained as scientist. Therefore they should be able to look at large volumes of data, create statistical analsysis of that data, and look for relatiionships via models or other techniques to make the arguements better for the scientific community.

This is something that gets lost in some of these discussions. Just because one has the authority of a degree does not mean that he or she is right - it should just mean a higher probablity of making a strong case based on data. So when anyone hears opinion then the right question to ask is what are the supporting data for that opinion or conclusion.

It is easy to say take a precautionary approach but in truth the Board of Fish, which are not scientist for the most part, is balancing the economic and social considerations along with the biological risk in this process. The 20th date is the result of that process - it may be wrong to some and that is why Marcus is correct that changes to this date should come from the Board of Fish unless ADF&G has very strong data to indicate otherwise.

Couldn't agree more, Nerka. A fisheries biologist, trained as a scientist in my thinking, works in terms of data, formulae, and such. Nor does that mean they are correct. What it does mean is that in terms of social function, we have given over the management of our fisheries resouces to professional men and women so trained.

Moreover, it is the Board of Fisheries, not fisheries biologists, who sort out competing claims, interests, addictions, economics, and more of Alaska's fisheries — being advised all the while by fisheries biologists — for the benefit of all the people of Alaska.

On the other hand, individual fishermen work in terms of their own agendas and opinions which, consciously or unconsciously, promote that agenda. Nor have we given over the management of our fisheries resources to every Tom, Dick, and Harry, regardless of how intelligent they may or may not be, regardless of how well trained they may be in whatever area, lest fisheries management devolve into anarchistic self-interest.

Opinions are fine — everyone's got one, but let the professionals do what they're trained and hired to do. Constantly berating, questioning, challenging, and advising existing BoF policy and ADF&G management accomplishes nothing of value. There is a venue for opinion — it's called the regulatory process.

 

[akfishinguy]

My current opinion, as posted in this threads subject on wether the run is week or late, is that it's just late at this point. That's what I'm hoping is the case.

We floated from Centennial to Eagle Rock last Monday evening and of the two fish we hooked the biggest was about fifteen pounds. The other was about 8 pounds. Friends that were fishing the Sunday before also caught several small fish with a few decent ones (30-40). A family friend, who used to guide on the Kenai years ago, always said they'd catch a large number of jacks for several days before the main run started hitting the river. So hopefully the main bulk of the run is on the way.

 

[Ripface]

Marcus,
You say there's a venue for opinion, and I agree, and I think that's why we all go to these forums...to read, among other things, opinions. Give the guy a break and don't be so crabby.

 

[Marcus]

Marcus,
You say there's a venue for opinion, and I agree, and I think that's why we all go to these forums...to read, among other things, opinions. Give the guy a break and don't be so crabby.
"Is man one of God's blunders? Or is God one of man's blunders?" ...Nietzsche

My apologies if my opinions come across as "crabby."

"God is dead." — Nietzsche
"Nietzsche is dead." — God

 

[sayak]

Job Discription: Job from Hell

Job Discription: Job from Hell

Fisheries Biologist for Cook Inlet Fisheries:
You will need to consider all the interests of the following entities:
- Commercial set netters;
- Commercial drifters;
- Dip netters;
- King salmon fisherman;
- Red salmon rippers;
- Rainbow c&r fishermen
- Guides.
Consider the scientific data, listen to the growing diverse interests, each with their own agenda, then try and make decisions about escapement and fishing opportunities that will piss off each entity the least.
Warning: this job is a high stress job and may lead to heavy drinking, substance abuse, heart disease or suicide.

 

[Marcus]

Thankless job. . .

Thankless job. . .

Fisheries Biologist for Cook Inlet Fisheries:
You will need to consider all the interests of the following entities:
- Commercial set netters;
- Commercial drifters;
- Dip netters;
- King salmon fisherman;
- Red salmon rippers;
- Rainbow c&r fishermen
- Guides.
Consider the scientific data, listen to the growing diverse interests, each with their own agenda, then try and make decisions about escapement and fishing opportunities that will piss off each entity the least.
Warning: this job is a high stress job and may lead to heavy drinking, substance abuse, heart disease or suicide.

sayak: Actually I believe it is the members of Alaska's Board of Fisheries who make the kind of decisions you refer to above: competing interest groups, social issues, economics, conservation, and more. ADF&G fisheries biologists merely try to manage the various fisheries in accordance with BoF mandates. But you're right — it's got to be a thankless, high-stress job what with all the various interest groups griping, accusing, advising, complaining about not getting their fair share of kings or whatever, overescapement or the lack thereof, commercial nets, etc., etc., ad nauseum.

 

[fishNphysician]

My current opinion, as posted in this threads subject on wether the run is week or late, is that it's just late at this point. That's what I'm hoping is the case.

Looks like the fish have finally arrived in earnest. Yesterdays nearly 2000 count was corroborated by reports of the first banner day in well over a week. The catch was dominated by 6-12# dinks y'day, but that sure seemed to change today. Again lots of small fish in the mix (running a bit bigger in the 10-15# range), but definitely a few more of the flagship giants for which the river is known.

BTW the reds also stormed the beach yesterday with 120K coming off the Kasilof section alone. The Kasilof saw 15K go by the counter as well, so that was really a major push of fish. Maybe that's a sign that the Kenai sockeye are finally coming too. We'll see what tomorrow's opener holds for the Kenai section.

 

[akfishinguy]

We're doing a quick float from Stewarts to Eagle Rock in the morning before work. Looks like a better chance of tying into one of these buggers!

My buddies mom went on a halibut charter out of Deep Creek today and said there were reds jumping all over the place out there.

 

[fishNphysician]

We're doing a quick float from Stewarts to Eagle Rock in the morning before work. Looks like a better chance of tying into one of these buggers!

Just got an e-mail from Area Management Biologist George Pappas. Fishing was indeed outstanding today with his creel guys absolutely blown away by the sheer volume of fish measured and scale-sampled at the take-outs today.

He mentioned that two "sealers" were brought in today. (Fish over 55" must be "sealed" by ADFG.... these are fish in the 75-85# class or better).

I don't think you'll find a better time for a driftboat Monday than tomorrow. Lots of kings still pushing up with tonight's high tide according to live on-the-water reports. All the likely holes should be holding good numbers of well-rested fish for you at first light.

The water right in front of Stewarts is pretty fast for a driftboat to backtroll, so I would hightail it on down to the bottom of the first island on the right pronto. That slow stuff right on the seam that leads to the top of Falling In is tailor made for the oars. Sure to be money in the bank.

 

[akfishinguy]

Yeah, I really like that drift in front of Stewarts too. To make matters worse, we're actually going to be in a sixteen foot cataraft. Requires a little more work & finesse on the sticks compared to a drift boat. We've done okay in it though on the Kenai and Kasilof.

 

[akfishinguy]

Well...........they're here! Ended up boating four kings this morning in a little less than three hours of fishing time. Not much to complain about there. I hooked the first one right in front of Stewarts...had the line in the water for maybe two whole minutes before the rod started pumping. Released that one as it was fairly dark, ~40ish# male. Buddies mom then caught a nice chrome ~35# male halfway through the Falling in Hole drift, her first king ever, so it got bonked. My buddy then hooked a small king about a third of the way into the long Eagle Rock drift, released it. Then with about two hundred yards before getting to Eagle Rock, my rod doubled over again and ended up landing a chrome 42# male. Planned on releasing it, but was bleeding pretty bad, so I tagged it instead. Definitely a great morning to be out there. Other boats were doing fairly well too.

Looks like the reds are finally starting to show up too. I'd expect todays count to be a bit better than yesterdays 13k. Didn't see any of the bank anglers doing hooking up with any, but we did see quite a few rolling around.

 

[fishNphysician]

Thanks for that report, akfg.

I just knew it was gonna be stellar this morning.

Four days and counting down for me.

 

[Boss Gobbler]

Kenai Kings

Kenai Kings

That is good news to me. We have a King Charter this Saturday!!!