Before planning a party and celebrating, I think I will wait and see what actually arrives. Disappointments out weight the number of celebrations with fishing.
If you look at the fry estimates in the lakes the fish were never there. Some in Department tried to blame marine but I was a freshwater issue.
This is true. I sent more shrimp and halibut to the family this year than ever before. I'll use up my 2017 smoked red supply soon but there is always hope for the Copper. My expectation is to have enough in the freezer for the years food supply and above that it's bonus time.Much depends on one's expectations and definition of success.
I need to find out more about this. So asking now last year the run was suppose to b on he small side. After the late timing shown with the sonar and all those fish coming in August I was hearing from fish and game that the run was on forecast last year small but as forecasted. So am I not understanding and the run was smaller than the forecast?
What caused the low number of fry?
Nerka - would smaller escapements, say something in the 500,000 to 800,000 levels, eliminate the starvation due to brood year interaction and as a side benefit, allow more harvest for all user groups?
So if you look at the sockeye forecast by river system the only system that was significantly below forecast was Kenai. So if it was a marine issue then why did Kasilof 12 miles to the south come in on forecast or just slightly below? The reason is in the fry data for Kenai. The fry estimate would have had Kenai forecast at about 1 million fish less if one looked at total fry numbers. However, in the forecast the Department used the 2 freshwater fry numbers and estimated a 50% survival rate. That put the forecast 800,000 fish higher than using a more reasonable survival rate. So far the Department has not explained why the 50% figure was used. If the sibling model had been used the forecast would have been 800,000 less and again that would have had the run be close to the forecast. So last year for Kenai was the result of low numbers of fry in the lakes and couple that with a bad forecast method created this illusion. The Department in not looking at the data closely came out with the marine comments and now after being shown the data has realized that the lack of fry rearing in the Kenai lakes was the issue.