2023 Hunting Draw Results. Smiling or groaning?

[rich109]

DM422 JBER muzzleloader bull for me. After all these years supporting ADFG I finally drew again!! Close to town and I am retarded...I mean retired so I have the time to put in and be persistent!!

 

[4merguide]

DM422 JBER muzzleloader bull for me. After all these years supporting ADFG I finally drew again!! Close to town and I am retarded...I mean retired so I have the time to put in and be persistent!!

Congrats, keep your powder dry!

 

[greyinggrayling]

After years of getting skunked, I apparently blew all my luck in one go and drew DM423 and DL455. My buddy also drew DM774 after years of draw-drought. Looks like we have a lot of learning and homework to do before September! 🙃

DL455 is fun. I’ve drawn that tag twice. The bear in my avatar is a JBER bear.

 

[zach m]

Metal Creek Goat DG890 and Chugach Brown Bear DB470

 

[PWS_Kyle]

So last year, it seemed like everybody I knew drew a tag except for me. This year was the opposite - I drew a moose tag I have been applying for for 15+ years and maybe only one other person I know drew a tag. I am feeling pretty fortunate.

I also had a slow last week of work so I decided to do some analysis on the draw results. I downloaded the applicants and winners PDF's from ADF&G's website and converted them to excel so that I could run some calculations. I was very surprised to find that the draw odds increased significantly for almost every hunt in comparison to the prior three years. Many hunts doubled or tripled in odds. Chugach sheep this year had many that were 2-6% chance of drawing that were previously 1% or less. Same for Moose, draws that were previously 1% were 3-10% this year. Looks like this was the case across the board. Even the valley cow tags that had significantly reduced permits maintained about the same draw odds because of reduced applications. Kodiak bear, elk, goat, everything.

I thought that at least caribou odds would go significantly down with all the previous Nelchina applications being spread to other caribou tags but it seems that was not the case at all with every caribou draw increasing in odds from prior year.

It leaves me wondering if the reduced applications is the result of overall reduction in tags leaving people more pessimistic about their chances and thus not applying, or if it is the result of overall economic recession that people don't want to spend the money on applications. Maybe just the 40K Nelchina applications received in the past included a large number of people who were only applying for other species because they were already applying for that caribou tag?

Whatever the cause of the reduced applications and improved odds, it looks like this year was the best chances in a long long time to draw a tag. I am (selfishly) hoping these odds remain for at least another year before flipping back, but in the meantime I will enjoy what seems to signal a few less hunters in the field this coming fall.

 

[Steven_JR]

So last year, it seemed like everybody I knew drew a tag except for me. This year was the opposite - I drew a moose tag I have been applying for for 15+ years and maybe only one other person I know drew a tag. I am feeling pretty fortunate.

I also had a slow last week of work so I decided to do some analysis on the draw results. I downloaded the applicants and winners PDF's from ADF&G's website and converted them to excel so that I could run some calculations. I was very surprised to find that the draw odds increased significantly for almost every hunt in comparison to the prior three years. Many hunts doubled or tripled in odds. Chugach sheep this year had many that were 2-6% chance of drawing that were previously 1% or less. Same for Moose, draws that were previously 1% were 3-10% this year. Looks like this was the case across the board. Even the valley cow tags that had significantly reduced permits maintained about the same draw odds because of reduced applications. Kodiak bear, elk, goat, everything.

I thought that at least caribou odds would go significantly down with all the previous Nelchina applications being spread to other caribou tags but it seems that was not the case at all with every caribou draw increasing in odds from prior year.

It leaves me wondering if the reduced applications is the result of overall reduction in tags leaving people more pessimistic about their chances and thus not applying, or if it is the result of overall economic recession that people don't want to spend the money on applications. Maybe just the 40K Nelchina applications received in the past included a large number of people who were only applying for other species because they were already applying for that caribou tag?

Whatever the cause of the reduced applications and improved odds, it looks like this year was the best chances in a long long time to draw a tag. I am (selfishly) hoping these odds remain for at least another year before flipping back, but in the meantime I will enjoy what seems to signal a few less hunters in the field this coming fall.

Interesting observation. Out of curiosity, is there a way within the data to account for the ability to apply multiple times (up to 6) for the hunts? I haven't looked myself. If not, I would think it would appear as higher odds like you are reporting. For example, if you and I are the only two people to apply for a hunt, and you calculate the odds as two people applying for one tag, the odds would say 50%. But if I applied six times and you one time, then the odds would no longer be 50%.

I suppose to back check your calculations you could go through the same exercise with last years data for applicants and winners and see if the odds match up to what was reports in the draw supplement.

 

[tlingitwarrior]

I am beyond excited. Kodiak brown bear Uganik Lake. Nervous also, them bears are big! I hope to enjoy a combo bear and deer, with some duck hunting and fishing smattered in between. Trip of a lifetime, I am fully aware of the rarity of this opportunity, and am in awe. Any info someone wants to offer, please pm me. I want to give good stories for when I am in the old folk’s home, no one will believe this old woman.

Grayling, I've hunted Uganik Lake Bear in the spring 2019. I have some good intel if you are looking. Send a PM If you'd like.

 

[anchskier]

So last year, it seemed like everybody I knew drew a tag except for me. This year was the opposite - I drew a moose tag I have been applying for for 15+ years and maybe only one other person I know drew a tag. I am feeling pretty fortunate.

I also had a slow last week of work so I decided to do some analysis on the draw results. I downloaded the applicants and winners PDF's from ADF&G's website and converted them to excel so that I could run some calculations. I was very surprised to find that the draw odds increased significantly for almost every hunt in comparison to the prior three years. Many hunts doubled or tripled in odds. Chugach sheep this year had many that were 2-6% chance of drawing that were previously 1% or less. Same for Moose, draws that were previously 1% were 3-10% this year. Looks like this was the case across the board. Even the valley cow tags that had significantly reduced permits maintained about the same draw odds because of reduced applications. Kodiak bear, elk, goat, everything.

I thought that at least caribou odds would go significantly down with all the previous Nelchina applications being spread to other caribou tags but it seems that was not the case at all with every caribou draw increasing in odds from prior year.

It leaves me wondering if the reduced applications is the result of overall reduction in tags leaving people more pessimistic about their chances and thus not applying, or if it is the result of overall economic recession that people don't want to spend the money on applications. Maybe just the 40K Nelchina applications received in the past included a large number of people who were only applying for other species because they were already applying for that caribou tag?

Whatever the cause of the reduced applications and improved odds, it looks like this year was the best chances in a long long time to draw a tag. I am (selfishly) hoping these odds remain for at least another year before flipping back, but in the meantime I will enjoy what seems to signal a few less hunters in the field this coming fall.

Steven was on the right track. I have the lists from previous years. The number of applications shown on the permit hunt supplements and used for the percentage success rate for drawing is based on each entry, not each person. For example, DC001 shows on the supplement that it had 2980 applications. The winter 2022 drawing applicants list only has 1048 entries for that hunt because it only lists one entry for each person, not for each entry they put in. Many of those 1048 put in multiple entries. At this point, there is no way to know how many individual entries there were in the hunts, so we can't calculate the success rate in the same way that it is done for the permit hunt supplement to accurately compare with previous years.

 

[PWS_Kyle]

Steven was on the right track. I have the lists from previous years. The number of applications shown on the permit hunt supplements and used for the percentage success rate for drawing is based on each entry, not each person. For example, DC001 shows on the supplement that it had 2980 applications. The winter 2022 drawing applicants list only has 1048 entries for that hunt because it only lists one entry for each person, not for each entry they put in. Many of those 1048 put in multiple entries. At this point, there is no way to know how many individual entries there were in the hunts, so we can't calculate the success rate in the same way that it is done for the permit hunt supplement to accurately compare with previous years.

Yeah, I see what you mean. The applicants list only shows one "application" for a specific hunt per person when there could be up to 6 applications for each line within that document. That seems like it makes the published document essentially worthless for trying to determine any trends

 

[greyinggrayling]

Grayling, I've hunted Uganik Lake Bear in the spring 2019. I have some good intel if you are looking. Send a PM If you'd like.

I appreciate the offer, PM to follow!

 

[AKducks]

Yeah, I see what you mean. The applicants list only shows one "application" for a specific hunt per person when there could be up to 6 applications for each line within that document. That seems like it makes the published document essentially worthless for trying to determine any trends

The draw supplement gives the number of applications per hunt number. granted you need to wait till October to get this draws numbers.

 

[akaviator]

DC608. Kenai caribou

Nice one, congrats!

 

[akaviator]

Funny. You are not raining on my parade. I need a knee replacement and a hip replacement. There won’t be any going to the top of any mountain period. I have spent some time around Etolin. If either of us get an animal it will be a bonus. The deer hunting is good.

Good attitude. Those elk are a tough hunt and safe from me lol.

 

[chasing eyes]

I was unsuccessful in the draw but my son got dg345 which i had last year and me and him were successful on my hunt so we have some experience in the area.

 

[acg515]

DM540 for me so I'm happy

 

[grndthunder]

I didn't get any permits and that's okay. Have rewarding hunts and make a few treasured memories.

 

[iofthetaiga]

It is a spelling error that got past about 75 people.

Nah, we just politely ignored it.