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Thread: Is ALASKA OIL in the TEENS.......??? Just asking.

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    Default Is ALASKA OIL in the TEENS.......??? Just asking.

    WTI oil is $22.00 and isn't Alaska oil generally lower.
    "Life Is Either a Daring Adventure or Nothing" - Helen Keller

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    Member Jackson's Dad's Avatar
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    Default ANS Crude Price

    ANS crude is generally above WTI and normally tracks pretty close to or slightly above Brent crude price. If you look here http://tax.alaska.gov/programs/oil/d.../dailyoil.aspx it shows that lately it has been between WTI and Brent.

    As of noon today on 3/18 WTI is approx $22/bbl and Brent is $26/bbl, so I would expect ANS to be somewhere in between, likely in the $24-25 range.

    If I was a legislator or anyone dealing with the Alaska budget I would be freaking out right about now. For a frame of reference ANS was trading at $67.91/bbl on 12/31/2019. The loss of revenue to the state is going to be substantial.
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    It's gonna get ugly. Think mid 80's for a reference. You could buy a 4 plex for 40K.
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  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by SmokeRoss View Post
    It's gonna get ugly. Think mid 80's for a reference. You could buy a 4 plex for 40K.
    Yes.......I have been surprised at the lack of interest in this thread. They are going to be poleaxed at what is coming. On top of which, the Massive National Depression starts in twelve days. J.P. Morgan Chase just forecast a stunning "Negative" 14.4% GDP for the second quarter. HELL is coming to Alaska.

    This time we will need three super oil tanker spills in Prince William Sound.
    "Life Is Either a Daring Adventure or Nothing" - Helen Keller

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    Member Tyin 1 On's Avatar
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    Agree this is gonna get bad real quick. Conoco has already changed their 2020 plans and I bet BP is not far behind. This buy out with Hilcorp may get nasty too if everything has not been confirmed. Russian and Saudi are squeezing and this other crap going on is gonna push oil pretty low. Say by by PFD and soon to come state tax.
    "Nothing worse than a GROUSE!!!"

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    yeah and add to already announced reduced cruise ships up here, with more cancellations likely on the way. I'd assume less people will be flying up here unless something changes drastically in the next month or two. It's going to be very rough for our state.

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    How are the charter boats looking for this summer? Busy, cancellations, bookings up/down?
    Do they rely on cruise ships or bookings at the Sportsmans show, etc...?
    Bk


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    Quote Originally Posted by a2thak View Post
    yeah and add to already announced reduced cruise ships up here, with more cancellations likely on the way. I'd assume less people will be flying up here unless something changes drastically in the next month or two. It's going to be very rough for our state.
    Nearly everything as far as business is going to be total 100% "STOP". Commercial Fishing, especially Processing.....Stop. Guided Hunts......Stop. Fly out hunts, Stop. Russian river shoulder to shoulder......Stop. Rafting companies........Stop. Any place where humans will be near another human......Stops.

    Unemployment could jump to 30% or 41%. For those who missed the fun 80's in Alaska, 77% of our banks and credit unions went bankrupt. Homes that had sold for $164,700.00 were instantly available for $14,600.00 and no buyers. FDIC was the largest home owner in Alaska.

    It was interesting........all those who loudly proclaimed it would not effect them........were soon unemployed and sending the house "Keys" to the bank, and heading down the Alcan Hwy. totally "Broke", and filing bankruptcy.

    The thing about a depression is that it is mentally "Depressing"........for everyone.
    "Life Is Either a Daring Adventure or Nothing" - Helen Keller

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    With challenges come opportunities.

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    Talking

    [QUOTE=AGL4now;1679236]
    It was interesting........all those who loudly proclaimed it would not effect them........were soon unemployed and sending the house "Keys" to the bank, and heading down the Alcan Hwy. totally "Broke",

    Driving Down the Alcan Hiway, can't do that now,,,,,, it's CLOSED, just talked to a friend of mine on his Sat-phone, turned back @ the Alaska-Canada Border, their in Tok having Coffee,,,,, now what..........were land locked.
    TG
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    We have a lot of resources. It’s gonna be bumpy but we’re gonna be OK. I predict people coming together like nothing we’ve ever seen. Sure nice to see the partisan bickering get tamped-down so there’s an immediate good thing. Sometimes we need a good swift kick to affect positive change.

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    Quote Originally Posted by akgriz View Post
    With challenges come opportunities.

    We need a reset to remember what the hard times were. Maybe get rid of the slackers during the hard times. This things is nation wide, world wide, if you cant find income here you wont find it anywhere. The herd will be getting thinner and thats a good thing... (meaning people moving outside, NOT people dying)

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chez View Post
    We need a reset to remember what the hard times were. Maybe get rid of the slackers during the hard times. This things is nation wide, world wide, if you cant find income here you wont find it anywhere. The herd will be getting thinner and thats a good thing... (meaning people moving outside, NOT people dying)
    Going to be lot of death also. This will be a very large "Reset".
    "Life Is Either a Daring Adventure or Nothing" - Helen Keller

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    I was just over in Anchorage and paid $2.48 for diesel in Palmer. At the pump in Valdez it is $2.57. Normally there is a 45-55 cents difference. Can't wait to fuel up the boat.

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    BP just announced they are shutting down both their rigs they got running. It gonna get really slow on the slope!
    "Nothing worse than a GROUSE!!!"

  16. #16

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    There were a few trades of WTI yesterday as low as $18.50'ish the official low for most of yesterday was $19.27 for WTI. But it was a wild market.

    The scary thing is what this exposes, not just for the oil industry or Alaska, but for world economic foundation, or the illusion of economic foundation.

    Clue.....there is nothing there, it was removed. Skillfully and Brilliantly.
    "Life Is Either a Daring Adventure or Nothing" - Helen Keller

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    AGL,

    You're correct or at least align with my memory of the 80s when you're sitting on a $100K mortgage and your house is valued at $30K.
    When NS Crude fell to $8, there were 11 banking firms in Anchorage and two years later there were three left. Murkowski's bank went under
    at that time also.

    Places like Seward will be quiet this summer and commercial fishermen will have a difficult market. Hunt guides will be getting cancellations also.
    Hunker down!

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    Everything is gonna be just fine

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    Quote Originally Posted by iyouktug View Post
    Everything is gonna be just fine
    Not likely. I was here for the crash in the mid 80's. With all the deficit spending the state has ben doing and exhausting all it's financial reserves, it could be worse this time. Especially with the addition of covid 19 and the lower oil prices and reduced production.
    Hunt Ethically. Respect the Environment.

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