As of the 17th approximately 73,000 sockeye have passed the sonar counter at river mile 19 of the Kenai River. This is actually the 10th lowest on this date from 1978 to present. So in 28 years there have been 9 other years lower. In addition, in those 9 other years the final escapements ranged from 285,000 to 1 million. The low number was when the goal was 300-500 thousand, not the present goal of 650,000 -850,000. Most years were in the 500-800 thousand range.
Therefore, I would anticipate that ADF&G will take some action in the fisheries in the next few days. How that will look will depend on the escapement rate and showing of fish at the river mouth.
This return is coming off a brood year that followed one that had 25 million fry in Skilak Lake. The next year only 8 million fry were estimated in the lake and they were small fish. The numbers are right for a failure but one never knows until the counting is over. If it failed it will be further evidence of the interaction of the brood years rearing in the lake.
In any event, with fisheries restricted I would expect a major push of fish to the beach in the next few days if it is going to happen. At this point all users should wish for a 400,000 fish push so ADF&G can feel more comfortable about meeting the 650,000 goal. If it comes in the next two days restrictions may not be necessary - every decision is now on the escapement rate.
Thought you might like an update.
Therefore, I would anticipate that ADF&G will take some action in the fisheries in the next few days. How that will look will depend on the escapement rate and showing of fish at the river mouth.
This return is coming off a brood year that followed one that had 25 million fry in Skilak Lake. The next year only 8 million fry were estimated in the lake and they were small fish. The numbers are right for a failure but one never knows until the counting is over. If it failed it will be further evidence of the interaction of the brood years rearing in the lake.
In any event, with fisheries restricted I would expect a major push of fish to the beach in the next few days if it is going to happen. At this point all users should wish for a 400,000 fish push so ADF&G can feel more comfortable about meeting the 650,000 goal. If it comes in the next two days restrictions may not be necessary - every decision is now on the escapement rate.
Thought you might like an update.
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