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So we're gonna kill Kings on the Kenai?

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  • #16
    The in river closure completely kills the beach nets and will increase the chance of over escaping the river with reds. They will increase bag limits soon I bet and switch to 24 hr dipping get ready for some chaos. I give it less than a week and boat will be capsized in the dip net fishery.
    I wish the management was not connected. I understand the com guys get some Kings but it’s not the large Kings normally. The large number I hear people talking about includes all kings including all the jacks that are under 10 lbs.

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    • #17
      small kings is better then no kings. If over escapement is an issue are we going to have a terrible red run on the russian in a couple years since they had over 80 thousand fish through the counter a couple years ago?
      I will never be a "Prostaffer" its not that I am not good enough
      but its because I refuse to pimp products for free.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by kwackkillncrew View Post
        small kings is better then no kings. If over escapement is an issue are we going to have a terrible red run on the russian in a couple years since they had over 80 thousand fish through the counter a couple years ago?
        Runs are likely to continue to decline, but not because of "over-escapement", which is nothing more than a human economic construct.

        ...he who knows nothing is nearer to truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods & errors. ~Thomas Jefferson
        I would rather have a mind opened by wonder than one closed by belief. ~Gerry Spence
        The last thing Alaska needs is another bigot. ~member Catch It

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        • #19
          Originally posted by iofthetaiga View Post
          Runs are likely to continue to decline, but not because of "over-escapement", which is nothing more than a human economic construct.
          According to ADFG the Kenai has met the Sustainable Escapement Goal every year since 2011, it over escaped the SEG every year except 2018. The Kenai has over escaped the Inriver Escapement Goal year since 2011 except for 2013 (which would have over escaped if they didn't stop counting on Aug 7th), 2016 (which would have over escaped if they didn't stop counting on Aug 19th), 2017 (which might have over escaped if they didn't stop counting on Aug 24th when 16,610 fish were counted), and 2018 (which didn't meet the Inriver Escapement Goal). There have been four years since 2011 the Inriver Escapement Goal was not over escaped, but in reality two of those years most likely were over escaped one year might have over escaped and 2018 was the one year that wasn't over escaped by any reasonable measure.

          There is a point where too many fish in the river will result in less returning fish in future years, I don't know what that number is. Out in Bristol Bay they've over escaped for years and they keep bringing back more and more fish.

          What all of that means while we dump billions of hatchery pinks into PWS, I don't know but I'm glad it's not my job to know what it all means.
          I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned. Physicist ― Richard Feynman

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          • #20
            Click image for larger version

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            • #21
              Originally posted by aktally View Post
              Click image for larger version

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              Tally,
              Where did you find that graph? It doesn't seem to jive with the ADFG fish count found here https://adfg.alaska.gov/sf/FishCount...&SpeciesID=420
              I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned. Physicist ― Richard Feynman

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              • #22

                Alaska Department of Fish and Game staff comments on commercial, personal use, sport, and subsistence regulatory proposals, Committee of the Whole

                The fish count page displays only the number of sockeye that passed the RM 19 sonar site. It does not subtract for harvest upstream of the sonar. The graph is the final spawning escapement estimates that subtract harvest from the sonar count. The inriver goal is an allocation goal is only based on sonar counts, it is not an escapement goal in terms of future production.

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                • #23
                  Thanks for posting that graph AKTALLY. Very informative. So, in reality, the OEG has not been exceeded since 2006!
                  Originally posted by aktally View Post
                  Click image for larger version  Name:	sockeye escapement.jpg Views:	0 Size:	51.6 KB ID:	2773255

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                  • #24
                    Just to clarify, the OEG was repealed in 2017. Also, the 2015 escapement estimate was 1,400,047. So technically the OEG was exceeded that year.

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                    • #25
                      Thanks for the correction!
                      I probably shouldn't say this, but 2015 was close enough for govt work!!!

                      Originally posted by aktally View Post
                      Just to clarify, the OEG was repealed in 2017. Also, the 2015 escapement estimate was 1,400,047. So technically the OEG was exceeded that year.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by aktally View Post
                        Alaska Department of Fish and Game staff comments on commercial, personal use, sport, and subsistence regulatory proposals, Committee of the Whole

                        The fish count page displays only the number of sockeye that passed the RM 19 sonar site. It does not subtract for harvest upstream of the sonar. The graph is the final spawning escapement estimates that subtract harvest from the sonar count. The inriver goal is an allocation goal is only based on sonar counts, it is not an escapement goal in terms of future production.
                        Maybe I have it all wrong, but the Inriver Escapement Goal is the total number of fish that ADFG wants to have in the river so that the amount of fish taken in river are accounted for prior to accounting for how many fish are left for reproduction or the Sustainable Escapement Goal. If that's the case and according to the chart you provided in four out of the eight years shown the SEG was over escaped, based upon the totals for 2019 and 2020 that aren't represented in the chart it seems like six out of ten years would have been over escaped based upon the SEG.
                        I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned. Physicist ― Richard Feynman

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Patsfan54 View Post

                          Maybe I have it all wrong, but the Inriver Escapement Goal is the total number of fish that ADFG wants to have in the river so that the amount of fish taken in river are accounted for prior to accounting for how many fish are left for reproduction or the Sustainable Escapement Goal. If that's the case and according to the chart you provided in four out of the eight years shown the SEG was over escaped, based upon the totals for 2019 and 2020 that aren't represented in the chart it seems like six out of ten years would have been over escaped based upon the SEG.
                          The inriver goal is to provide for harvest upstream of the sonar. Without that goal, the only requirement would be to at least hit the lower end of the SEG/OEG, which wouldn't leave any harvestable surplus above the sonar.

                          In years when the OEG was in place, that was the management goal, not the SEG. Management of the fisheries was targeting a wider range than what the SEG provided. Success or failure to meet the goal was based upon the OEG and not the SEG. It was a bit redundant and ultimately confusing for everyone involved to have the two goals (three including the inriver goal), which is one of the reasons why the OEG was repealed.

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