My wife told me a couple days ago that a huge push of reds (265K) hit the Kenai. She said that she heard about it again yesterday on the radio. I've checked the F&G counts, updated through the 25th, and so far nothing anywhere near that size of a run has come in. Has anyone else heard this rumor?
Big push of reds into the Kenai??
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Originally posted by AK Troutbum View PostMy wife told me a couple days ago that a huge push of reds (265K) hit the Kenai. She said that she heard about it again yesterday on the radio. I've checked the F&G counts, updated through the 25th, and so far nothing anywhere near that size of a run has come in. Has anyone else heard this rumor?
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Well, if she heard this a couple days ago, the commercial line doesn't know anything about it......cause I call it every day. 32k yesterday and if I recall around the same the day before......Sheep hunting...... the pain goes away, but the stupidity remains...!!!
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From all indications, the next big push into the Kenai will be pinks. I am pretty much losing any hope that we will see any fishable numbers of reds in the lower river. This has been one of the poorest red runs for the rod and reel guys in my thirty years. I am pretty spoiled and don't care to fish for reds. I like to catch reds so that means if I'm not hooking a couple and hour, I'd rather be doing something else. The crowds have been increasing each year, so maybe a poor year like this will help to ease the crowding in years to come. It looks like we will barely make the escapement so ADFG will have done their job. Hopefully the kings will make a comeback soon and I can get back to what I really enjoy. Until then, bring on the silvers and humps !
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I think it's all a matter of perspective. I've talked to several rod and reel guys I know who have limited day in and day out. Yes, we did not get a huge pulse of fish into the river yet this year, but daily counts of 30,40,50,60,000 make for some decent fishing.
I think that the huge pulses of fish into the Kenai the last several years has set everyone's sights a little high...
But yeah, we seem to be missing some reds so far this year. But, it ain't over...
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Historically, Such stories seem to be generated for the purpose of luring more fisherpersons, for more spending.
When I hear there is Boo Coo fish in the river, I know that the run is nearly OVER.
Smitty of the NorthWalk Slow, and Drink a Lotta Water.
Has it ever occurred to you, that Nothing ever occurs to God? Adrien Rodgers.
You can't out-give God.
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Originally posted by akcarv View PostFrom all indications, the next big push into the Kenai will be pinks. I am pretty much losing any hope that we will see any fishable numbers of reds in the lower river. This has been one of the poorest red runs for the rod and reel guys in my thirty years. I am pretty spoiled and don't care to fish for reds. I like to catch reds so that means if I'm not hooking a couple and hour, I'd rather be doing something else. The crowds have been increasing each year, so maybe a poor year like this will help to ease the crowding in years to come. It looks like we will barely make the escapement so ADFG will have done their job. Hopefully the kings will make a comeback soon and I can get back to what I really enjoy. Until then, bring on the silvers and humps !An unarmed man is subject, an armed man is a citizen.
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It's funny what a little data does to all of us. Since ADF&G started publishing sonar counts on the Kenai River, all manner of prophets, prognosticators, predictors and genies have come out of the bottle, each with their own magic formula for predicting "The Big Push" of second-run reds into the lower river. Some say it's the OTF (Offshore Test Fishery), others say there's no point fishing when "the nets are out" (commercial fishermen), others say it's got something to do with the tides, and some even say the wind blows them ashore. All make compelling arguments to support their predictions, and I think each of them has some elements of truth. This year, ALL of them were wrong.
What's the bottom line? Nobody knows what's going on with the run until they cross the sonar line upriver. Statistically I can say that if you're dip netting the Kenai between July 15-25, you'll probably catch fish in "an average year". I think what caught the prognosticators with their pants down this year was that the run has not shown characteristics similar to recent years, and they were suckered in to trying to predict the ultimate unpredictable event; the movement of wild creatures that are influenced by a constellation of variables that we only partially understand.
In each of the last four years prior to this one, there was a big surge of fish, followed by tapering numbers, then another fairly large push some days later. The most dramatic example was in 2012, when the run went from around 12,000 fish on July 11th, to over 200,000 on the 14th, then it dropped to 30-40,000 from the 18th-20th and surged again to over 110,000 on the 22nd. The most dramatic surge was last year; we went from just over 24K on the 14th to over 247K on the 16th. This year was radically different. The build of the run has been slow but steady, with no huge influx of fish yet.
Will the run begin to taper off now, will it continue to build? Will August see a giant surge of reds into the Kenai? Or is it just a weaker run? Where are the fish? If you know the answers to any of these questions for certain, I'd like to chat with you about stock purchases.
Here is a chart I slapped together, using ADF&G's numbers for the last five years, including this one. The chart starts on July 1 and ends on the 26th, which is the most recent date available for this year. The line for this year's run is the purple one.
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