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2014 Spring Breakup Report

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  • 2014 Spring Breakup Report

    Alaska - Pacific River Forecast Center

    River Breakup Map

    SRAK48 PACR 011444
    ACRRVAAK
    AKZALL-300000-

    ALASKA SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY
    NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
    3 PM ADT THU MAY 01 2014

    ...SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR ALASKA...

    FLOOD WARNING/WATCHES:
    NONE

    THE SPRING BREAKUP FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY RATED AS LOW TO
    LOW-MODERATE STATEWIDE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON OBSERVED
    SNOWPACK... ICE THICKNESS REPORTS... MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE
    TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS... AND OBSERVATIONS OF THE
    RIVER WATCH TEAMS AND VOLUNTEERS ALONG THE RIVERS. CURRENTLY BREAKUP
    AT MOST LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DAYS TO WEEKS EARLIER
    THAN NORMAL.


    ICE - APRIL ICE THICKNESS DATA ARE AVAILABLE FOR A LIMITED NUMBER OF
    OBSERVING SITES IN ALASKA. APRIL 1ST MEASUREMENTS INDICATED THAT ICE
    THICKNESS WAS VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE... WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY
    BETWEEN 48 AND 122 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE TANANA
    BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL THICKNESS. ICE THICKNESS ON THE NORTH
    SLOPE...WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WAS BELOW NORMAL. ICE
    THICKNESS ON THE YUKON RIVER RANGED FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT EAGLE TO
    BELOW NORMAL ON THE LOWER YUKON. EAGLE REPORTED 50 INCHES OF ICE ON
    APRIL 23.

    SNOW - THE APRIL 1 SNOWPACK ANALYSIS SHOWED ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS IN
    NORTHERN ALASKA... NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST... NORMAL IN
    INTERIOR ALASKA... AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE CANADIAN YUKON.
    SNOW MONITORING SITES IN THE CANADIAN YUKON REPORTED 100-130% OF
    NORMAL. SOUTHCENTRAL AND WESTERN ALASKA REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
    SNOWPACK... WITH LESS THAN 50% OF NORMAL IN THE KUSKOKWIM BASIN AND
    THE LOWER YUKON. WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF APRIL HAVE
    CAUSED SNOWPACKS TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE SOUTH
    OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

    FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SNOWPACK.. PLEASE REFER TO THE VARIOUS SNOW
    GRAPH OPTIONS AT THE APRFC WEB SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV OR ON
    THE NRCS WEB SITE AT
    HTTP://WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/CGIBIN/...L?STATE=ALASKA

    WEATHER - FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE FOR NORMAL TO ABOVE
    NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE STATE. APRIL TEMPERATURES IN
    WESTERN ALASKA ARE ON PACE TO PLACE IN THE TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD.
    TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN
    THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

    PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THIS YEARS
    BREAKUP PROCESS.

    OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR DAYS 6-14 INDICATE A
    VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
    STATE.

    FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE OUTLOOKS FOR THIS SPRING PLEASE REFER TO
    THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE AT
    HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/


    ************************************************** *******************
    *EVEN THOUGH A PARTICULAR RIVER OR REACH MAY BE DESCRIBED AS MOSTLY *
    *OPEN OR OPEN... IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR RUNS OF ICE AND DEBRIS TO *
    *MOVE THROUGH AS HEADWATERS UPSTREAM BREAKUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION AT*
    *ALL TIMES WHEN ATTEMPTING TO NAVIGATE RIVERS. *
    ************************************************** *******************

    RECENT BREAKUP ACTIVITY:

    SUSITNA RIVER..
    MOSTLY ICE COVERED WITH SOME LIFTING AND OPEN LEADS BEGINNING TO FORM.
    SOME ICE MOVEMENT AND MINOR ICE JAMMING REPORTED NEAR DESHKA LANDING.

    TANANA RIVER..
    ICE MOVED OUT THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE CHISANA RIVER IN THE NORTHWAY
    AREA. THE TANANA RIVER AT NENANA MOVED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON APRIL
    25TH. ICE AT THE SALCHA RIVER MOVED OUT ON THE 26TH... AT FAIRBANKS
    ON THE 29TH AND AT MANLEY ON THE EVENING OF THE 29TH. REPORTS FROM
    DOWNRIVER CONTINUE TO INDICATE DETERIORATING ICE CONDITIONS NEAR
    THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE YUKON RIVER.

    SKWENTNA RIVER...
    THE OBSERVER REPORTS THAT THE RIVER IS NOT SAFE FOR TRAVEL DUE TO
    DETERIORATING ICE CONDITIONS. THE ICE WENT OUT AT SKWENTNA ON APRIL
    29TH.

    COPPER RIVER.. BREAKUP OF THE GULKANA RIVER AT GULKANA OCCURRED ON
    FRIDAY APRIL 25TH. THE MINOR ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE FROM HAS
    CLEARED STRANDING SOME CAKE ICE. THE GAKONA RIVER WENT OUT ON APRIL 30TH
    WHILE THE MINOR ICE JAM JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE RELEASED AND
    STRANDED CAKE ICE ALONG THE BANKS. THE COPPER RIVER AT GULKANA HAS
    OPEN CHANNELS WITH MINOR ICE JAMMING.


    YENTNA RIVER..
    LAKE CREEK HAS AN OPEN CHANNEL AT THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE YENTNA RIVER...
    THE YENTNA RIVER REMAINS ICE COVERED.

    YUKON RIVER.. KOYUKUK..
    ICE IS DETERIORATING ALONG MOST OF THE LENGTH OF THE YUKON RIVER... BUT
    WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICE MOVEMENT ANYWHERE. YUKON RIVER ICE FROM
    EAGLE TO CANADIAN BORDER REMAINS IN PLACE BUT IS CONTINUING TO ROT
    IN PLACE. THE YUKON RIVER LEVEL AT EAGLE REMAINS SEVERAL FEET BELOW
    THE BASE OF SHEET PILE WALL. UPSTREAM FROM EAGLE... THE FORTYMILE
    RIVER IS OPEN. THE KLONDIKE RIVER CLEARED OU THE ICE AT THE
    MOUTH... BUT HAS NOT PROVIDED SUFFICIENT WATER TO BREAK THE ICE ON
    THE YUKON. THERE IS A SMALL OPEN LEAD SEVERAL MILES DOWNSTREAM FROM
    DAWSON WITH SIGNS OF SOME ICE MOVEMENT. DOWNSTREAM FROM EAGLE THE
    MOST NOTEWORTHY ACTION IS SOME SHIFTING OF ICE WITH DISCONTINUOUS
    OPEN LEADS BETWEEN THE NATIONS AND CHARLEY RIVERS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
    CHARLEY RIVER THE ICE IS SOLID BUT SLOWLY ROTTING. FROM THE CONFLUENCE
    OF THE TANANA TO GALENA WATER LEVELS ARE VERY LOW WITH ICE UNBROKEN BUT
    ROTTING IN PLACE.


    KUSKOKWIM RIVER..
    THE ICE WENT OUT AT NIKOLAI ON APRIL 22. DOWNRIVER AT MCGRATH THE TRIPOD
    TRIPPED ON THE AFTERNOON OF 5/01 AND HAD DRIFTED 2 MILES DOWNSTREAM BY
    NIGHTFALL. SHEETS AND PANS HAVE SHIFTED AT RED DEVIL AND CROOKED CREEK
    AND ICE WAS RUNNING IN FRONT OF ANIAK ALL NIGHT ON THE 30TH.
    DOWNSTREAM THERE WAS A SHIFTED SHEET NEAR UPPER KALSKAG THAT LEFT
    ABOUT 1/2 MILE OPEN LEAD. THE ICE AT KALSKAG BROKE UP ON THE 30TH
    BUT ICE REMAINS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW KALSKAG. ICE IS DETERIORATING
    ON MOST OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER... AND TRIBUTARIES LIKE THE KWETHLUK
    RIVER ARE MOSTLY OPEN. THE ANIAK RIVER AND ANIAK SLOUGH APPEAR TO BE
    OPEN NEAR THE CONFLUENCE. THE STONY RIVER WAS REPORTED OPEN FROM ITS
    MOUTH UPSTREAM TO LIME VILLAGE... 74 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE MOUTH.


    THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES AN ESTIMATION OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
    VARIOUS LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE AND BASIN RUNOFF VOLUMES.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    SNOWMELT RUNOFF VOLUME...EXPECTED WATER VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT DURING
    THE MELT SEASON.

    FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT AND/OR
    ICE JAMS.

    * AVERAGE BREAKUP DATES ARE FOR THE PERIOD 1980 THROUGH 2013 AND ARE
    CALCULATED FOR LOCATIONS WITH AT LEAST 5 YEARS OF DATA.
    ** ACTUAL BREAKUP DATE FOR THIS YEAR
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    SNOWMELT FLOOD AVERAGE NO. OF FORECAST
    RIVER - REACH RUNOFF POTENTIAL BREAKUP YEARS BREAKUP
    VOLUME DATE * RECORD DATE
    ------------- ---------- --------- ------- ------ --------
    SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE

    KENAI RIVER

    ANCHOR RIVER BELOW AVERAGE LOW 04/13 10 04/17**

    MATANUSKA RIVER BELOW AVERAGE 04/30 8 04/18**
    SUSITNA RIVER LOW
    GOLD CREEK LOW 05/03 7 05/01-05/03
    SUNSHINE LOW 05/01 25 05/01-05/02

    YENTNA RIVER BELOW AVERAGE
    LAKE CREEK LOW 05/01 23 05/01**

    SKWENTNA RIVER BELOW AVERAGE
    SKWENTNA LOW 05/01 19 04/29**

    COPPER RIVER BASIN AVERAGE
    GAKONA RVR @ HWY LOW 05/01 26 04/30**
    GULKANA RVR @ HWY LOW 04/30 25 04/25**

    CHENA RIVER AVERAGE
    CHENA LAKES PROJECT
    FAIRBANKS LOW 04/26 22 04/22**

    TANANA RIVER AVERAGE
    NORTHWAY LOW 04/26 26 04/24**
    SALCHA LOW-MOD 04/26**
    FAIRBANKS LOW 04/30 15 04/29**
    NENANA LOW 05/01 31 04/25**
    MANLEY LOW 05/04 24 04/29**

    KUSKOKWIM RIVER BELOW AVERAGE
    NIKOLAI LOW 04/24 28 04/21**
    MCGRATH LOW 05/07 34 04/30**
    STONY RIVER LOW 05/06 26 05/01-05/06
    SLEETMUTE LOW 05/05 25 05/01**
    RED DEVIL LOW 05/07 28 05/01**
    CROOKED CREEK LOW 05/07 28 05/01-05/07
    ANIAK LOW 05/08 31 05/01**
    KALSKAG LOW 05/08 25 04/30**
    TULUKSAK LOW 05/10 22 05/03-05/10
    AKIAK LOW 05/11 28 05/04-05/11
    KWETHLUK LOW-MOD
    BETHEL LOW 05/12 33 05/04-05/11
    NAPAKIAK LOW 05/14 20 05/06-05/13

    YUKON RIVER (UPPER) AVERAGE
    DAWSON, YT 05/05 34 05/01-05/04
    EAGLE LOW-MOD 05/05 32 05/01-05/04
    CIRCLE LOW-MOD 05/10 30 05/02-05/08
    FORT YUKON LOW 05/11 30 05/04-05/10
    BEAVER LOW 05/11 18 05/04-05/10
    STEVENS VILLAGE LOW-MOD 05/12 17 05/05-05/11
    RAMPART LOW 05/12 19 05/05-05/11

    YUKON RIVER (MIDDLE) AVERAGE
    TANANA LOW-MOD 05/10 29 05/03-05/09
    RUBY LOW 05/12 28 05/05-05/11
    GALENA LOW-MOD 05/13 33 05/06-05/12
    KOYUKUK LOW-MOD 05/14 9 05/07-05/13
    NULATO LOW-MOD 05/13 18 05/06-05/12
    KALTAG LOW 05/14 28 05/07-05/13
    ANVIK LOW 05/17 27 05/09-05/16

    YUKON RIVER (LOWER) AVERAGE
    HOLY CROSS LOW 05/16 27 05/09-05/15
    RUSSIAN MISSION LOW 05/16 28 05/09-05/15
    MARSHALL LOW 05/17 22 05/10-05/16
    PILOT STATION LOW 05/18 17 05/11-05/17
    MOUNTAIN VILLAGE LOW 05/19 27 05/12-05/18
    ALAKANUK/EMMONAK LOW-MOD 05/23 29 05/16-05/22

    KOYUKUK RIVER AVERAGE
    BETTLES LOW 05/10 31 05/03-05/09
    ALLAKAKET LOW 05/11 28 05/04-05/10
    HUGHES LOW-MOD 05/11 27 05/05-05/11

    SEWARD PENINSULA
    BUCKLAND RIVER
    BUCKLAND LOW-MOD 05/19 24 05/05-05/12

    KOBUK RIVER
    KOBUK LOW-MOD 05/17 30 05/11-05/17
    SHUNGNAK LOW 05/18 24 05/12-05/18
    AMBLER LOW 05/19 30 05/13-05/19

    NOATAK RIVER ABOVE AVERAGE
    NOATAK LOW 05/20 19 05/14-05/20

    BROOKS RANGE - NORTH ABOVE AVERAGE
    COLVILLE @ UMIAT LOW 05/25 15 05/19-05/26
    COLVILLE @ COLVILLE LOW-MOD 06/01 17 05/25-06/02

    FOR MORE DETAIL AND TO SEE A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAP REFER TO OUR WEB
    SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

    THE NEXT SPRING BREAKUP OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED AT 3 PM ADT FRIDAY
    MAY 2 2014.

    $$
    RAR

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