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Thread: Kenai ER kings off to a great start!

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    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Default Kenai ER kings off to a great start!

    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    The KeenEye MD

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    Muddy water, catch rates down, lots of sockeye in the test net.......I think they will be very conservative in management. I am not sure how confident the r, although the marine fishery has been extremely good. I am optimistic on the run, it will be interesting to see what the managers do.......

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    I find it difficult, at best, to believe the sonar counts when they just changed the reporting process this year. Do you not think that there is some kind of correlation between a better sonar/net count than what just the nets are showing???

    To me - it seems that the change was a cushion for management to "estimate" the return spawning numbers so that it "appears" that the fish are being managed properly and everyone gets to have "more" fish.....smells bad to me.....and you know where the fart is coming from.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullelkklr View Post
    I find it difficult, at best, to believe the sonar counts when they just changed the reporting process this year. Do you not think that there is some kind of correlation between a better sonar/net count than what just the nets are showing???

    To me - it seems that the change was a cushion for management to "estimate" the return spawning numbers so that it "appears" that the fish are being managed properly and everyone gets to have "more" fish.....smells bad to me.....and you know where the fart is coming from.
    From my and many others experiences with the managers the will error on the conservative side, even when the numbers were good under the old system. We all knew the old system was flawed, the new methods are an attempt to be more accurate, hopefully the believe in the numbers the are putting out, the numbers should be good as they are taking their time putting them out.

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    I was on the website and only one of the 4 graphs shows a good start. I do not understand in depth the charts but i too hope they make a strong showing

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    Near as I can tell the Anchor is 100 fewer than this time last year. I thought high water brings in more kings?? I know it is early I just like to hear from arm chair managers like myself. Seems everyone knows more than AFnG. In the Valley they forcast about the same number as last year...not very many.

    Bill

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    There appears to have been a step-change downward in 2006 and has held about steady since then. This year's Net Apportioned Sonar Estimate is, at around 40% of Sonar, the lowest portion in the last 10 years. Yet the absolute level is higher than the last two years.

    At least the early indicators are good.

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    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Net apportioned means the total sonar targets are reduced in proportion to the ratio of kings:sockeye encountered in the test net.

    Lots of sockeye means a reduction in the net-apportioned chinook estimate.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    Net apportioned means the total sonar targets are reduced in proportion to the ratio of kings:sockeye encountered in the test net.

    Lots of sockeye means a reduction in the net-apportioned chinook estimate.
    So with that indicator we are looking pretty good, that is two indicators above average. The angler effort is way down so the catch is way down, plus earlier in the season the water was very, very low and very clear, the only way guys could run the river was to run right over where the fish could hold, spooking them, now the water is on the rise and it is very muddy making the catch rate very low.

    Overally, with the key indicators looking good and still good numbers being caught in the salt, and the marine fishery has been the best it has been in years, the outlook has to be looking good, the managers should have much more confidence in their numbers than in the past.

    It is still really early in the run and we have some bad tides this week so I would expect the numbers to drop off a little, then pick back up when the tides get on a better cycle and the water clears up. Heck, last year when the water got really bad the numbers went through the floor, then picked right back up with the clear water, not a fish problem, a counter problem. Maybe they have a better handle on it this year with some better equipment, they have some very dedicated people down there doing the best they can.

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