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Thread: kenai registration goat hunts... not

  1. #1
    Member homerdave's Avatar
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    Default kenai registration goat hunts... not

    with the current take of nannies on the peninsula at 43% of total, the only areas that MIGHT have registration hunts are brown mountain, whidby bay and english bay.
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    Member 0321Tony's Avatar
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    I'll take whidby I know there is a good one there I drew it lat year and seen him, Brown mountain is way to far for me. I think people take nannies because they are usually lower and easier to get

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    Moderator LuJon's Avatar
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    I think people take nannies because they either can't tell the difference or decide not to go home empty handed and take what is available. I have not spent a great deal of time hunting goats but of the ones I have watched they all seemed to be in pretty much the same sort of terrain.

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    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    43%? Wow. That's an awfully high take.

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    Member icb12's Avatar
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    What is the usual percentage take of nannies??

    What does fish and game consider an optimal percentage take in order to maintain healthy populations?


    And where did you get the 43% value? Is that publically available information somewhere?

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    Member homerdave's Avatar
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    over the last 20 years the mean take of nannies has been right around 35-36%. in only one year did the take fall below 1/3.
    with the new regs (if you kill a nanny then you can't apply for a kenai goat tag for 5 years) it was hoped we could bring the numbers down to at least 25%. as far as an optimum number, with the relatively new knowledge we have regarding the highly matriarchal social structure of goats (Cote and Festa-Bianchet, 2008) the closer we can get to zero take of nannies the better. note that this applies only to native populations of goats, not introduced populations such as kodiak, which exploit habitat in a much more expansive manner.
    as for the 43% number, i talk to our area biologist often, and make it my business to stay informed.
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  7. #7

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    43% is high but I can see how it can happen.

    My first ever goat hunt was August of last year. Never even seen a mt. goat in real life prior to the hunt, but it was my dad's permit and we both took the F&G quiz on "is it a billie or nanny". Anyway we ended up shooting a nanny it turns out that fell into quite the hell hole. However, now that I have 4 goat hunts under my belt and looked over a hundred or more goats during that time. When I was 1.5 miles away and 2,000' lower from the goat Steve (STID) took this year I knew beyond a doubt that it was a billy as I now had atleast a little experience to draw from. I think I am not alone in this regard in that if no one in your group has goat hunting/judging experience then its going to be a coin flip if you are able to routinely judge billie vs. nanny. Its just hard without actually getting out there and doing it first hand IMO. The quiz online is great and gives you stuff to look for, but without looking over several and having billies and nannies together in a group to see the apparent difference side by side in the field, its pretty tough to see the difference. I am by no means a goat expert by any stretch of the imagination, but atleast now I can be fairly confident in the fact that I can tell the difference. Granted there are cases that its hard to tell, but nothing like getting out there and looking over goats to get the real perspective. I know many on the board say its so easy to tell the difference and for the most part I can agree with them NOW, but those that don't have a lot of experience looking over goats, I can relate, been there.

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    Member kodiakrain's Avatar
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    Thanks for the info Lanche, i was wondering if anyone has seen anything like the video they have for judging Bears, for Mt Goat sex identification?

    Thinking of the regis goat hunt on Kodiak this winter but I have Zero experience judging them so.... I'll look up that quiz, anything better out there?
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    Moderator kingfisherktn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kodiakrain View Post
    Thanks for the info Lanche, i was wondering if anyone has seen anything like the video they have for judging Bears, for Mt Goat sex identification?

    Thinking of the regis goat hunt on Kodiak this winter but I have Zero experience judging them so.... I'll look up that quiz, anything better out there?
    http://www.wc.adfg.state.ak.us/index...02&issue_id=67

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    Moderator kingfisherktn's Avatar
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    I have seen a video, but can't remember what state put it out. I'll do some research also.

  11. #11

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    Not to side track the thread.......But are Mt. Goat Horns worth anything......? Knife Handles for letter openers.....? I have a box of horns someplace.

  12. #12
    Member broncoformudv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingfisherktn View Post
    I have seen a video, but can't remember what state put it out. I'll do some research also.
    I thought it was Montana that had one. Had the link saved somewhere around here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    Not to side track the thread.......But are Mt. Goat Horns worth anything......? Knife Handles for letter openers.....? I have a box of horns someplace.
    Should be worth something to taxidermists...goat horns get broken often.
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    Member icb12's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by homerdave View Post
    over the last 20 years the mean take of nannies has been right around 35-36%. in only one year did the take fall below 1/3.
    with the new regs (if you kill a nanny then you can't apply for a kenai goat tag for 5 years) it was hoped we could bring the numbers down to at least 25%. as far as an optimum number, with the relatively new knowledge we have regarding the highly matriarchal social structure of goats (Cote and Festa-Bianchet, 2008) the closer we can get to zero take of nannies the better. note that this applies only to native populations of goats, not introduced populations such as kodiak, which exploit habitat in a much more expansive manner.
    as for the 43% number, i talk to our area biologist often, and make it my business to stay informed.
    Thanks Dave.
    That is the impression I was getting from looking at the management reports I could find online.
    Out of curiosity, do you know what the total number harvested thus far is? I'm curious because a percentage by itself is a fairly ambiguous statistic. For instance if hunter success has been low this year and only 10 goats have been killed than the 40% isn't such a terrible thing because the total number of nannies killed would be less than 35% in other years.

    Prime Example: In 1985 60% of the Goats Killed on the Peninsula were nannies !!!
    Oh but wait, there were only 5 goats harvested that year....

    For what it's worth; from the Management reports: From 2007-1984 an average of 65 goats have been harvested per year, with 22 of those being female. For an average percentage take for that time period being 34%.

    I am just trying to point out that there are a TON of variables here. Total population size, ratio billies/nannies total pop, predicted winter kill, harvest numbers, past harvest data, past winter kill estimates, etc etc etc. I mean does F&G really just look at one percentage and say "holy crap, put a stop to all RG hunts!"... If so I am of the opinion they are dangerously under-thinking the situation.

    Sad that the percentage take this year is so high. I think ADF&G usually does a pretty good job of educating hunters on differentiating sex. Bottom line, if they have to shut down RG hunts or even drop the number of DG hunts down; I personally support that if the goal is to maintain healthy natural populations.

    I've attached a PDF I made comparing years 2007-1984.. data came from the management reports.
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Member homerdave's Avatar
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    F&G doesn't just use a flat % to determine RG hunts, but each goat unit is evaluated in turn with total harvest and nanny ratio for each area figured. then the possibility of a registration hunt is weighed against the likelihood that the "acceptable" kill of nannies could be exceeded. since overall the nanny take has been too high, even one additional female being taken from some units is not acceptable.... so no RG hunt.
    i don't know what the total number of goats taken this year is, but i could find out with a phone call on monday.
    just forgot to ask. whoops.
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    Member martentrapper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by icb12 View Post


    I am just trying to point out that there are a TON of variables here. Total population size, ratio billies/nannies total pop, predicted winter kill, harvest numbers, past harvest data, past winter kill estimates, etc etc etc. I mean does F&G really just look at one percentage and say "holy crap, put a stop to all RG hunts!"... If so I am of the opinion they are dangerously under-thinking the situation.
    Thanks for the info icb. Your thinkin like an AC member...........are you?
    I've been around bio's who cry wolf when a harvest gets high, but poo poo the years when harvests are low. Better get the stats Dave. One high year may not be the problem it looks to be on the surface.
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    Member homerdave's Avatar
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    hey MT, i strongly suggest you lay your hands on a copy of the cote and festa-bianchet book if you want to discuss mountain goat biology.
    its pretty expensive, but like me, i know you want to be as fully informed on the animals that are found in your region, and that as an AC member you should be as knowledgeable as possible.
    Last edited by Brian M; 10-22-2010 at 22:29.
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    Member BrettAKSCI's Avatar
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    43% THAT'S PISS POOR!!!!!!!! EVERY and I do mean EVERY biologist I've EVER spoke to has encouraged me to shoot billies and EVERY one has said that if people would just take billies only, hunts would be much more sustainable at much higher harvest rates. I realise that it can be difficult to sex them, but are people even trying?????? That's dog excriment!!!!!! Everyone want's theirs.........but come on!!!! We need to set a higher standard than this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If you go home without a goat because all you saw were nannies is that the end of the world????? Grrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Brett

    PS. I've been wanting to start a discussion on this very fact, but refrained as I didn't want to step on toes. Hell with that I'm stomping toes! This is crap!!! Taking nannies is dog excriment!!!!! If we all take billies EVERONE wins including the goats (which are quite frankly a lot more improtant than us getting a goat at least to me)!!!! Suck it up people!!!!!!!!

  19. #19
    Member icb12's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by homerdave View Post
    F&G doesn't just use a flat % to determine RG hunts.
    This is kind of my point. For us really to have an accurate discussion of whether RG permits should/will be issued or not takes a LOT more than one percentage number for a very large area. That high percentage could mean next to nothing if we don't have ALL the data.

    Take DG346 Resurrection Peninsula in 2004 for example. The percentage take of nannies for the draw was 38 percent. That seems pretty high. Yet Still ADFG released 54 RG346 permits in 2004 and another 4 nannies were taken, no billies were harvested under Registration permits. Whats worse is that in 2004 the ADFG doesn't even have a published survey count of goats for 346!! But we see that the next year in 2005 they counted 222 Adult goats in 346 with 44 kids. Now the high percentage take the year before seems acceptable. Or Does it? In 2005 there was no Registration hunt in 346. EVEN THOUGH the percentage take of nannies was lower. I suspect it was because there was over double the amount of goats killed during the DG346 hunts in 2005.

    Speculation on hunts is best done only when you have ALL the information and then by individual year, individual tag would be ideal.

    The lack of registration hunts this year should be no surprise anyway. Look at the 2008 management report. From 2003 to 2006 there hardly any registration hunts allowed. Of those that were; the predominant and recurring success rate is zero, with a couple exceptions. 2007 was a good year and registration hunts were allowed in 6 tag areas inside GMUS 7 & 15. Even then the total number of goats taken during those registration hunts in 2007 ranged from 0 to a maximum of 4. The lack of registration hunts should come as no shock to anyone.


    Quote Originally Posted by martentrapper View Post
    Thanks for the info icb. Your thinkin like an AC member...........are you?
    You're welcome. No I am not an AC member.



    I really don't want to make it seem as if I am a proponent of taking nannies. I am not. I think every goat hunter should be as educated as possible and really take the time and effort to judge every potential goat and make a maximum effort to harvest a mature billy. There is just a lot more to this than one percentage; and I think everyone should be aware of that.
    The fact that F&G said only three units might have registration hunts is in my eyes better quality info; but still pure speculative at this point and must be taken at face-value at this point in time. Will they be archery only hunts? How many more goats can be taken from those units? There is not a whole lot of information that we as hunters can put to use there.

  20. #20
    Member martentrapper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by homerdave View Post
    hey MT, i strongly suggest you lay your hands on a copy of the cote and festa-bianchet book if you want to discuss mountain goat biology.
    its pretty expensive, but like me, i know you want to be as fully informed on the animals that are found in your region, and that as an AC member you should be as knowledgeable as possible.
    You didn't begin this thread as a discussion of "biology", Dave. We are discussing harvest stats and how they relate to open and closed seasons. The RG hunts weren't closed based on biology, but on HARVEST. icb's point of having all the info is valid. My point is bio's often react to the immediate information without taking into account long term averages. But I'm sure as an informed AC member, your aware of that.
    Rather than having to be "edited" again, Dave, maybe you could get some harvest stats from the bio and post them for members to read and draw their own conclusions from.
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