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Thread: Kasilof Concern

  1. #1
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    Default Kasilof Concern


    Here's the gig; we are halfway through the Kasilof season and trending below the average escapement as well as the target BEG. Halfway through we are at less than 100k fish and the minimum BEG is 150k - does anyone besides me see something fundamentally wrong with issuing more EO's when we are looking at needing more fish to escape? Is the MINIMUM escapment now the mode of operation for our BOF?
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

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    Default Hmmmm

    I know the season isn't over yet and we'll make the target range - but why does the BOF insist on managing in such a reactive vs. proactive manner?

    Maybe a thread for Fisheries management but I would like to hear from other PU resource users.
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

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    Robb, You need to look at the run projection and consider the tidal cycle we are currently in. There will be no problem at all reaching the minimum escapement goal on the Kasilof and in fact I would venture to say it will come in well above this level even with E.O. time. Watch the numbers start up again as soon as we get into the smaller tide cycle. Same for the Kenai--look for a major surge this weekend.

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    Hi Joe, just got a question. I'm trying to figure things out here, and wondering why the high tide cycle reduces fish escapement. Is it because of the stronger rip currents preventing the fish from advancing as much? Am I wrong to assume that the outgoing tidal strength is the bigger factor (between incoming and outgoing tides) in fish movement?

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    Default

    Robb, you keep mentioning the BOF is issuing EOs. That is not correct. The BOF sets the management priorities, but it is ADF&G that manages the fisheries in-season and issues the EOs.

    On a personal note, once the minimum escapement is reached, I have no issue with increased exploitation of the fish. The minimum is set at a level that will ensure healthy future runs. The rest of the fish are a harvestable surplus. If they were always right at the minimum I might be concerned, but from year to year the runs trend all over the place from way above the max to just above the minimum. Variation is likely good for the fishery.

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    I think you are right on Quack about the tides. Although it is not a 100% thing (nothing in nature or salmon movement is) there is a strong tendancy for both sockeye and king salmon to back off a bit from entering the Kenai River during the higher tidal cycles. I have always felt that the concurrent minus tides have the effect of sucking them away from the river mouth or possibly spreading them out more in the inlet before they school up again on the smaller tides. Don't know for sure, just know that F&G has observed this for years. There are exceptions to this rule but I would guess it applies 70-80% of the time.

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    BCR, you and I need to sit down and talk. The Kasilof is actually ahead of where it should be right now. With over 25 days to go in the return it will be hard for ADF&G to not go over the goal.

    Also, they have to fish hard now because the BOF management plans restrict them in August. So they actually need to be a little short now to meet the goals. The flexibility is gone within ADF&G because of politics, not local manager desires. If the Commissioner would use his emergency order authority the way it was intended I believe the fishing time by the set nets would be less. They would wait and take lots of fish when they are on the beach. Instead, they have windows and other limitations that have little biological meaning but huge political ramifications if not followed.

    Finally, we need to discuss the OTF program as I suggested. Trust me, the OTF counts are not to be used to predict movement of fish to the beach. It just is not a straight forward issue of how long does it take to get to Kenai or Kasilof.

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    Nerka, I was under the impression that we weren't going to discuss that openly per your PM you originally sent. I've been using the OTF as a component in my forecasting formula and its been very helpful. I disagree with you that it shouldn't be used. Why would ADF&G have it if it were not a valuable guage to help with movement/population? (that's rhetorical, I really don't want an answer becuase I'm convinced its there for exactly that; movement/population).
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

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    Thanks for the correction on the BOF/ADF&G.

    What I am saying is that the minimum BEG is what is the target, not the range so it seems. I have had conversations with others that have some concern with the management this season. I am not advocating a war with commercials; I love the commercial guys - I used to be one of them. So please no misinterpretations on my perspective; Fox has done an okay job but the fact remains that the Kasilof EO's and surrounding areas have an impact on other tributaries north of it and that is reflected on many occassions where commercials were not allowed to fish and counts go way up in valley streams. The Kasilof is a great fishery and since it has maintained a steady return; supporting families, business and filling freezers... it can be argued that since its healthy it needs to stay that way. The lower than average numbers that are occurring now (in spite of what others say) could be cause for alarm if not managed correctly. Do you see my point?
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

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