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Thread: Heating up?

  1. #1
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    Default Heating up?

    OTF is going to be in the 130-150 Range; that could mean some awesome fishing this coming weekend given that Mr. Fox will be conservative with issuing EO's (yeah, right). But if it can hold on; we could be in for some good to great dipping this coming weekend!

    As a side bar, there are a couple of old salts that are nay-saying my use of the OTF as an indicator of good fishing. I would like to remind them that I use it as a COMPONENT of my forecasting formula and I factor in EO's, Tides and Weather as the other ingredients and make my assessments once I've juggled all the data.

    I DID get gigged on my last forecast but only because I didn't check the hotline AFTER it played with the recording "there not likely be an EO issued..." (I should have checked it and saved the gas and cash).

    Anyways. The weather is favorable at this point and the tides are not ideal but can play in our favor coupled with the winds from the South West. In fact, the winds are supposed to be from the Southwest ALL WEEK:

    Tonight...SW wind 30 kt except SW 15 kt N of Kalgin Island. Seas 6 ft except 3 ft N of Kalgin Island. Patchy fog. .Mon...SW wind 20 kt...except S 15 kt N of Kalgin Island. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. .Mon night...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .Tue and Tue night...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .Wed...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .Thu...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .Fri...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

    My bet is to head down on Thursday night if you dip the Kasilof and that there will likely be decent numbers of fish in the Kenai as well; given that the OTF holds up in the triple digits from today. By my previous years of watching the OTF, it takes about 3-5 days (sometimes more if the weather is snotty) to reach the beach.
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

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    I'm heading down tonight. Do you know how busy the north side is? I've never dipped so this will be my first attempt. I'm heading down with a camper.
    ><((((>.`..`.. ><((((>`..`.><((((>

    "People who drink light 'beer' don't like the taste of beer; they
    just like to pee a lot." --Capitol Brewery

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    I will be down there Wednesday night and plan on staying until we have enough fish, or the following Tuesday, whichever comes first. Hopefully your predictions hold up Rob.
    Never count your days, but rather, make all of your days count.

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    The wife and I will be there Tuesday night or Wed morning. I think we will be camping on the south side. I have a silver Toyota FJ Cruiser with a big Yakima rack on top. Stop by and say hi or stop by and give me some pointers!

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    The o t f number was 206 on Sunday what does this mean lots of fish on the way ?

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    Default Otf #

    so where do you get this number on the web ? is it done every day ? thanks.

  7. #7

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    Here's the OTF link

    NOT updated every day.

    For a -really- interesting list of Upper Cook Inlet docs, go to:

    http://www.cf.adfg.state.ak.us/regio...sh/salmon/uci/

  8. #8

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    http://www.cf.adfg.state.ak.us/regio...i/uciotf10.pdf

    The link on the salmon page seems to take you to the 2008 data. But the link above should work for this year.

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    WHOA BABY IS THAT A GREAT OTF OR WHAT?!!!!

    Just called the hotline (262-9611) and YEP that does mean a huge biomass of fish is on its way folks! Coupled with the great SW all this week and I'm predicting that the rivers POP on Thursday, even with the commercials out. Speaking of which; you can all bank on the fact that although todays meager 3 hour extension of the regular period seems a bit lame, they are saving the EO hours for the next couple of days. Rest assurred that the BOF will release EO's tomorrow and Wed for the slug that is on its way.
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

  10. #10

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    what is the likely hood for commercial boat on saturday 7.18? How can I check?

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by ilovefish View Post
    what is the likely hood for commercial boat on saturday 7.18? How can I check?
    262-9611 is the commercial hotline; update on the previous post (thanks wunderground.com)

    Looks like mother nature is throwing us a curve ball; weather isn't going to cooperate until Wednesday so the slug still may start Wed/Thurs with the bulk more than likely hitting this weekend;

    Tonight...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .Tue...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain. .Tue night...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .Wed through Thu...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .Fri...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .Sat...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

    EO's will be issued sparingly today (only a 3 hour extension) but I'm sure they will delve them out pretty liberally this week. Shouldn't matter much this weekends dipping should have at least two or three good tides. If you have a buddy with a boat, JUMP ON IT. When the shore dippers are not hitting that well the boats always outfish them.
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

  12. #12

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    I called that number and I guess there is no way of finding out when the comm boat will be out until the morning of that date?

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    That is the case, thus the moniker; Emergency Order (EO). It is a bit predictble with the OTF counts though. If the counts are high, you can bet on a lot of EO's - they only get 36 hours a week and have a mandatory 36 hour shutdown window beginning Thursday night unless there is data that supports deviation. Also, take note that during low-expected runs and well-below-average escapement through the sonars that the management plan changes (if I remember correctly) to a 24 hour allotment of hours for the EO's to be issued. I don't think we are in that zone just yet; the Doc (FishinPhysician) might be able to shed some light or even Nerka.

    Take today's scenario for example. The OTF jumped to over 200 overnight and since the regular opener was today (and Thursday) they only extended the regular day by three hours where they only get 12 to fish. They are saving the EO hours for the other non-regular days to fish and try to balance the week to curb over-escapement (I hate that phrase but its what they use).
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

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    I DID get gigged on my last forecast but only because I didn't check the hotline AFTER it played with the recording "there not likely be an EO issued..." (I should have checked it and saved the gas and cash).

    The poor fishing for dippers on the Kenai this past weekend had little to do with any E.O; or not, in the commercial fishery. The dropoff of sockeye entering the Kenai River was totally predictable based on the tides which were in excess of 20'. These fish will enter the river when they are good and ready and the main surge is never stopped by the CF, just slowed down. If you study the past you will find that some of the very best days for dipping are the days of and the days following commercial openings. Dippers are making way too much of CF openings and I am a dipper and a sport fisherman, not a commercial. The same can be said for king salmon sonar passage and KS fishing in the river--best days often occur on CF days and the day after which should have even a greater impact. Fish come to the river when they are ready and no one stops them, just slows them down. The projections made by others for this weekend to be hot is likely a good one. Tides will be dropping off and both sockeye and kings should be hitting the river in good numbers as we head toward the peak. Don't base your fishing trips on wherer the "commercials" or out or not--you could miss the best days! 2c worth from a local Joe Fisherman.

  15. #15

    Default just back from the Kasilof (Monday)

    A buddy and I dipnetted the south shore of the Kasilof from noon Sunday till about 7:30 PM, then again Monday morning (5:00 - 7:00). Fairly slow most of Sunday except the late afternoon high tide cycle things picked up a bit. We managed 16 fish between the two of us. We got up at 5:00 AM this morning and fish were skipping pretty well on the surface with the morning high tide. There was a 2 hour push of fast action with lots of busy netters. We managed 18 during that flury. The comm nets hit the water at 7:00 AM so we decided to end on a good note and called it a day.

    Jeff

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Lure View Post
    I DID get gigged on my last forecast but only because I didn't check the hotline AFTER it played with the recording "there not likely be an EO issued..." (I should have checked it and saved the gas and cash).

    The poor fishing for dippers on the Kenai this past weekend had little to do with any E.O; or not, in the commercial fishery. The dropoff of sockeye entering the Kenai River was totally predictable based on the tides which were in excess of 20'. These fish will enter the river when they are good and ready and the main surge is never stopped by the CF, just slowed down. If you study the past you will find that some of the very best days for dipping are the days of and the days following commercial openings. Dippers are making way too much of CF openings and I am a dipper and a sport fisherman, not a commercial. The same can be said for king salmon sonar passage and KS fishing in the river--best days often occur on CF days and the day after which should have even a greater impact. Fish come to the river when they are ready and no one stops them, just slows them down. The projections made by others for this weekend to be hot is likely a good one. Tides will be dropping off and both sockeye and kings should be hitting the river in good numbers as we head toward the peak. Don't base your fishing trips on wherer the "commercials" or out or not--you could miss the best days! 2c worth from a local Joe Fisherman.
    Sure, when there is a large biomass of fish this is true; but when the numbers are lower or average..... its a different scenario. If you think about it; the good days of dipping the day of and the day after usually include the fish that have made it past the nets and fishing sites already.
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

  17. #17
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    Sure, when there is a large biomass of fish this is true; but when the numbers are lower or average..... its a different scenario. If you think about it; the good days of dipping the day of and the day after usually include the fish that have made it past the nets and fishing sites already.

    That is my point Robb, and one reason I think dippers are overly concerned about whether the commercial nets are out or not. Monday was a good example--nets were out--dipping was good. Some dippers missed out simply because the nets were in the water that day. BTW, thanks for your reports and your good work with pike up north. By any chance are your initials BP? If not your likely know who I'm referring to as he has a cabin on Alexander Lake.

  18. #18

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    Despite what the numbers showed yesterday - dipping Tuesday and Wednesday morning was terrible. We just got back. Two nets, eleven hours over the two days and 3 fish to show for it. Either those fish were moving through at night, or they were far off of the banks, because almost nobody had more than a handful of fish when we left at lunch today.


    Lots of people, and lots of people heading south as we were driving home.

    Good luck to anyone headed down this weekend.

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    Well, as the person who designed the OTF program for UCI I guess I am a nay-sayer. Using OTF numbers with other variables is good and I am glad BCR is trying but I would like to see the proof of the work.

    The OTF program catches are very variable due to tide, volume of fish, time of year, winds, volume of fish in the net, and a host of other variables. When you see large numbers in mid-July for a few days in a row that means fish are moving into the inlet. However, you can see large numbers in the OTF program at the end of July and it means nothing. Also the passage rate, the number of fish passing the site per index point can range from 1000 to 5000 so having an index of 100 could be 100,000 to 500,000 fish. This is the problem with using the OTF. Catches between years and within a year are not constant. The index means different things over the season and between the seasons. It is constantly recalculated during the season.

    People have tried to model this and show predictability but it does not work out with any confidence. However, if one says there are lots of fish in the inlet and winds are from the southwest and it is mid-July you do not need a model to predict fish will move to the beach. However, try to do that in two weeks and see what happens.

    One thing to look at BCR that will help you is the drift catch on any given 12 hour period. They tend to take 40-50&#37; of what is in the inlet with 500 plus boats fishing. This year only 250 boats fished last period. They took 300,000 fish and that means that there are a fair number of fish in the inlet, the winds are from the southwest, and the timing is right for some fish movement, and the large tides are coming down. So this weekend has a good probability of having fish at the river mouth.

    One last point. When I tagged fish in the inlet and reconstructed the run timing fish early in the season can hold up to 14 days before leaving the inlet for the beach. The average is about 4 so you are correct BCR with the 3-5 day comment at this point of the season but not earlier or latter. As July ends fish tend to move from the line to the Kenai River mouth in about 2 days.

    I look forward to seeing your model or is it kind of a seat of the pants approach. That is not bad but is hard to evaluate how good it is.

    Good luck fishing.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by MVA View Post
    dipping Tuesday and Wednesday morning was terrible.
    I fished yesterday on the incoming tide and caught 10-12 each tide. Everybody else that I dipped with did the same. When did you go?

    We fished yesterday morning from 2-4 and yesterday afternoon from 3:30 til 5'ish.
    ><((((>.`..`.. ><((((>`..`.><((((>

    "People who drink light 'beer' don't like the taste of beer; they
    just like to pee a lot." --Capitol Brewery

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