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Thread: Early run Kenai king forecast.

  1. #1
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    Unhappy Early run Kenai king forecast.

    Been looking for it on the ADFG website, but it was nowhere to be found.

    Received this from the Soldotna office today:

    Outlook

    The preseason outlook for the 2010 season is a run of between 6,500 and 10,500 early-run king salmon; the long-term average is 16,500 fish. The optimal escapement goal range is 5,300 to 9,000 fish. An inriver sport harvest of 1,000-2,000 and an escapement of 5,500-9,500 fish is anticipated.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  2. #2

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    That's not very promising.....

  3. #3

    Thumbs up

    With closures and impending threats of closures to other drainages, I expect the Sport Harvest to be even larger. Lot of folks will hit the Kenai that used to go other places. One guy told me that he sold more new 4 stroke motors this year because of this.
    "96% of all Internet Quotes are suspect and the remaining 4% are fiction."
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  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    Been looking for it on the ADFG website, but it was nowhere to be found.

    Received this from the Soldotna office today:

    Outlook

    The preseason outlook for the 2010 season is a run of between 6,500 and 10,500 early-run king salmon; the long-term average is 16,500 fish. The optimal escapement goal range is 5,300 to 9,000 fish. An inriver sport harvest of 1,000-2,000 and an escapement of 5,500-9,500 fish is anticipated.
    I'd be really curious to see what the difference has been for the last 10 years or so for the "projected" escapement and the "actual" escapement. We all know how salmon runs can go once they get started---and of course that can go both ways. I'd imagine those records are available if you wanted to do some research, but anyone possibly have them near at hand? Doc?

  5. #5

    Default C & r

    Looks like a catch and release season.

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    Default Not so!

    Quote Originally Posted by akriverman View Post
    Looks like a catch and release season.
    Read it again....

    The forecast calls for a harvestable surplus. Pre-season game plan is for a harvest of 1000-2000 fish.

    Confidence in an in-season update does not occur until sometime during the second week in June, and potential in-season EO's, if any were needed, would likely occur no sooner than mid-month.

    Remember BEG is 4000-9000, and OEG is 5300-9000. The OEG is the objective Sportfish Division is charged to manage for. Since the advent of the new BEG/OEG the run has been "overescaped".

    Harvest WILL occur.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Muttley Crew Fishing View Post
    I'd be really curious to see what the difference has been for the last 10 years or so for the escapement and the actual escapement. We all know how salmon runs can go once they get started---and of course that can go both ways. I'd imagine those records are available if you wanted to do some research, but anyone possibly have them near at hand? Doc?
    So, once again I ask, does anyone have those figures close at hand? I'll try and dig them up if no one does. I'd love to see what they have been. I'll be willing to bet they aren't even close to each other.

    Not to be argumentative, but in my experience looking at the "pre-season" salmon run forecast is pretty much like saying, "NOAA predicts there will be unseasonable weather in the middle of the next month." I have a degree in sociology with a specialty in statistical analysis, so I know the "power" that statistics have. I'd be more than willing to bet that for however long the escapement predictions have been released they haven't been quite in tune with what actually materialized each year. I could very well be wrong, but that's what it has seemed to be like for as many years as I can remember. That's why I'd love to see some sort of correlation between the two with some sort of evidence supporting the facts before I start taking it to heart.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Muttley Crew Fishing View Post

    Not to be argumentative, but in my experience looking at the "pre-season" salmon run forecast is pretty much like saying, "NOAA predicts there will be unseasonable weather in the middle of the next month.".
    I might have to agree with that even though I know how hard of a job it must be to take in all of the variables and utilize all of the different models at their disposal. Just as an example the upper cook inlet sockeye salmon forecast this year gives a "range" of 2.3 to 5.8 million." That's some range. With their forecast of 3.6 million, that's roughly a +/- 50% margin of error.

    Personally I hope the run comes in at the high end and F&G can also say they were "in the range" of the forecast this year!

  9. #9

    Default Forcasts

    I did read the numbers, but my gut tells me that F&G is trying to paint a rosy picture of the health of the Kenai river fish stocks. I have been fishing the Kenai river since 1977 and I have seen the boon and bust of my favorite river. With an El Nino year out at sea and the pollock fishery by catch problem things don't point to anything good for the king salmon fishery around the state. Heck, I have been hooking up Kenai river steelhead for decades and F&G finally has admitted that the Kenai river supports them.

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    In 2005 they were worried about the sockeye run up the Kenai. Cut back on fishing and then the fish hit and they hit 1.5 million in the river. You never know until you know

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by kgpcr View Post
    You never know until you know
    LOL! Truer words have never been spoken, brother!

  12. #12

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    There's already multiple kings being caught per boat on the river this early season, so I bet people will be suprised at how high the counts are going to be on the 16th. This May fishing is similar to 1994, which if my memory serves me correctly counted over 18K for that year.

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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    Been looking for it on the ADFG website, but it was nowhere to be found.

    Received this from the Soldotna office today:

    Outlook

    The preseason outlook for the 2010 season is a run of between 6,500 and 10,500 early-run king salmon; the long-term average is 16,500 fish. The optimal escapement goal range is 5,300 to 9,000 fish. An inriver sport harvest of 1,000-2,000 and an escapement of 5,500-9,500 fish is anticipated.
    I see they upgraded the final forecast prediction on the ADFG website....

    http://cf.adfg.state.ak.us/region2/p...hinook10mp.pdf

    The preseason outlook for the 2010 season is a run of between 8,000 and 10,500 early-run king salmon; the long-term average is 16,500 fish. The optimal escapement goal range is 5,300 to 9,000 fish. An inriver sport harvest of 1,000-2,000 and an escapement of 6,500-8,500 fish is anticipated.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  14. #14
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    Default Not lookin' too good....

    Closing in on the first week of counting, AND.....

    2010 is officially off to the WORST start in the history of record keeping.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

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    NOT GOOD but it can change in a hurry. I sure hope the numbers take a big jump soon.

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    Early king counts on the Kenai are interesting to observe but it is simply way to early to even begin to guess how things will progress in the run by what we have seen through May 21. For example in 2006 the count total through May 21 was 280 but the final count for the first run ended up at 23,326. This was one of the biggest runs since the sonar came online. That's, what, 26 more kings than what the sonar has estimated on the same date this year?

    In 2007 the count through May 21 was 78 (tides were to high to start counter until May 19) and the first run came in at 15,904 before it was all said and done. The first day of the counts that year was for only 18 kings. Still a solid run in the end even with the late start.

    In 2004 the count was 274 through May 21 and it ended up at 15,274. Pretty similar numbers to this year so far but what will next week bring in comparison?

    On the flip side in 1991 the counts were 281 on May 21 and it only ended up at 10,939. One of the smallest first runs on record but it had 1 more king to date than 2006 and remember that 2006 was over 23,000 first run kings!

    Simply not enough of a glimpse of the run to even begin to guess what will happen in the next few weeks. I will say that the salt water fishing for kings off of Anchor Point up the Inlet to Deep Creek is MUCH MUCH MUCH better than it was all of May last year. Doesn't mean much for what the first run for the Kenai will eventually be but still it is encouraging.

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    Anchor is not looking to good either.

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    Default Yes, it is still early, BUT....

    Quote Originally Posted by iceblue View Post

    Simply not enough of a glimpse of the run to even begin to guess what will happen in the next few weeks.
    If we look back at the historic trends in run-sizes that started off this poorly in the first full week of counting ( 2007 was excluded due to incomplete counting for the week), we have the bottom 5 as follows:

    YR................. 5-22 count........... 6-30 count

    1991 .............. 392 ..................... 8842
    1998 .............. 288 ..................... 8997
    2002 .............. 303 ..................... 7165
    2006 .............. 352 ..................... 23328
    2009 .............. 312 ..................... 11334

    1) Historically, the "average" run is 16.5K.

    2) Four out of five of these returns ended up WAY below average. And even the 11.3K return of 2009 was a concern as ADFG publicly acknowledged that it was biased high due to pollution by a strong run of Russian River early run sockeye.

    "The department believes that the cumulative traditional estimate of king salmon passage into the Kenai River in 2009 may be biased high due to the large influx of sockeye salmon. Factors that the Department has taken into account include: low catch rates in the sport fishery, low catch rates of king salmon in the department test net project, and additional indices of king salmon passage from the sonar project."


    3) Three out of those four "below average" years are the three all-time worst returns on record.

    ***

    Yes, it's a bit early to prognosticate doom and gloom, but folks should have realistic expectations. Other returns to Cook Inlet are off to a very slow start, and ADFG has already taken the precautionary approach to close several streams BEFORE their runs even got off the ground.

    Secretly keeping my fingers crossed for another 2006 anomaly for the Kenai early run, but I'm not holding my breath for it.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  19. #19
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    Default The current run at a glance

    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

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    With 11 days of counting under our belts, 2010 is basically tied for the third worst return to date. Only 1998 and 2002 have fared worse thru May 26. Not surprisingly those are also the two worst early runs on record with in-river returns of 8997 and 7165, repectively.

    On the other hand success rates for no-bait have been surprisingly good for the number of fish entering the river. Traffic has been VERY light.... creel guy only counted 14 boats this morning.

    On another note... the hooligan have arrived!
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

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