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Thread: The Slippery Slope of Fair

  1. #1
    Member Erik in AK's Avatar
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    Default The Slippery Slope of Fair

    I'm sorry for adding yet another thread to the Great Drawing Permit Debate of 2010 but I didn't want to derail one of the other threads.

    Personally, while I feel the current system is adequate, I am not opposed to some changes. There have been some ideas proposed and strong arguments for and against them. Again, many of these ideas are intended to make the distribution of permits more fair. On that point we must tread lightly IMO. What's reasonable, fair, or equitable to some will be prejudicial to others. I've been lucky in the drawing permit lottery. This year marks the second time in 4 years I've drawn two tags. Fortunately for me in both cases the hunts did not have conflicting dates, but I have to say I apply for 10 to 15 tags every year hoping to draw one. Just one. My expectation is I won't draw at all and my hope is to draw one tag. If I do draw, that tag becomes my top scheduling priority.

    I mention this because I would not oppose a change that limited me to one tag, and after some compelling arguments I'm back on the fence about preference points.

    Much of the discontent over the Draw seems rooted in the idea of fairness. Naturally, that begs the question: How do we define fair? Any sincere discussion ultimately reveals that "fair" is an entirely subjective concept. Although many of us can share common ground within the range of our personal definitions, the basic truth that there is no universal standard of fair remains unchanged.

    The closest standard we have is statistical fairness which the current draw system adheres to. The draw is blind and random which is exactly why some folks draw multiple tags. F&G has a constitutional mandate to provide equal opportunity to all legal residents. The draw accomplishes that by not factoring in race, sex, income level, employment status, or prior draw success/failure.

    Each hunt is it's own lottery. All applicants have an equal chance. That's fair isn't it? Of course in a blind draw, multiple draw tag applications means their exists the opportunity for a hunter to draw multiple tags in a given year, which to some is patently unfair. And yet to modify the draw by programming in discriminators to ensure a more even distribution of tags would open the state to lawsuits. After all, what criteria would those discriminators be based on? And who would decide? I'm pretty sure that debate would get ugly very quickly....ranting and raving over the unfairness of deciding who gets to decide what's fair.

    The system we have isn't perfect but it is, at least, mathematically fair.

  2. #2

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Erik in AK View Post
    The system we have isn't perfect but it is, at least, mathematically fair.

    If you did not get drawn for 15 years would you still feel that way......? What if You went 30 years.......with-out getting drawn, would you still feel that way........? 40 years, 50 years......?

  3. #3

    Thumbs down

    Quote Originally Posted by Erik in AK View Post
    I'm sorry for adding yet another thread to the Great Drawing Permit Debate of 2010 but I didn't want to derail one of the other threads.

    Personally, while I feel the current system is adequate, I am not opposed to some changes. There have been some ideas proposed and strong arguments for and against them. Again, many of these ideas are intended to make the distribution of permits more fair. On that point we must tread lightly IMO. What's reasonable, fair, or equitable to some will be prejudicial to others. I've been lucky in the drawing permit lottery. This year marks the second time in 4 years I've drawn two tags. Fortunately for me in both cases the hunts did not have conflicting dates, but I have to say I apply for 10 to 15 tags every year hoping to draw one. Just one. My expectation is I won't draw at all and my hope is to draw one tag. If I do draw, that tag becomes my top scheduling priority.

    I mention this because I would not oppose a change that limited me to one tag, and after some compelling arguments I'm back on the fence about preference points.

    Much of the discontent over the Draw seems rooted in the idea of fairness. Naturally, that begs the question: How do we define fair? Any sincere discussion ultimately reveals that "fair" is an entirely subjective concept. Although many of us can share common ground within the range of our personal definitions, the basic truth that there is no universal standard of fair remains unchanged.

    The closest standard we have is statistical fairness which the current draw system adheres to. The draw is blind and random which is exactly why some folks draw multiple tags. F&G has a constitutional mandate to provide equal opportunity to all legal residents. The draw accomplishes that by not factoring in race, sex, income level, employment status, or prior draw success/failure.

    Each hunt is it's own lottery. All applicants have an equal chance. That's fair isn't it? Of course in a blind draw, multiple draw tag applications means their exists the opportunity for a hunter to draw multiple tags in a given year, which to some is patently unfair. And yet to modify the draw by programming in discriminators to ensure a more even distribution of tags would open the state to lawsuits. After all, what criteria would those discriminators be based on? And who would decide? I'm pretty sure that debate would get ugly very quickly....ranting and raving over the unfairness of deciding who gets to decide what's fair.

    The system we have isn't perfect but it is, at least, mathematically fair.
    Your limited thinking in Fairness as compared to Equality is commensurate with your limiting the discussion to the Draw Permits. Until such time that Alaskan's demand that ALL Hunting and Fishing opportunities be allocated in an Equitable manner the bickering and infighting will continue.

    Many have fallen into to the trap of singling out one singular aspect and making a Big Deal out of it.

    We will continue to be pitted against one another and the hating and fighting will continue until such time the Special Interest Groups are put out of business. Until such time, I welcome with a closed fist, those that embrace Special Priveleges and Priority Allocation of Fish and Game Resources.
    "96% of all Internet Quotes are suspect and the remaining 4% are fiction."
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  4. #4

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    Tis obvious that the guys that have have average to good luck drawing see the system as functional, but the folks that have below average luck wise to very unlucky see it as unfunctional. I dont think the whole system needs revamped, but I think some changes are much needed. Something in the nature of 1 coveted species tag a year, maybe any hunt that has a 4% or less chance of being drawn per person, or household. Maybe a 4 year time restraint on one being able to draw another low percentage tag of the same species after they have drawn it. Things that just allow others to have opportunities to get out into these better managed and higher success ratio hunting areas and not leave the whole thing in the hands of luck and a computer program. I would not be opposed to something similar to a point system for a specific draw hunt either, such as a specific Kodiak Brown bear tag (ie Red lake), each and every year that you apply for a Fall red Lake Brown bear tag and dont draw, you recieve a point or something, but not a point system across the board that enables guys to draw whatever species they want. Theres lots of possibilities to bettering the current system, and the percentages form the poll in the other thread clearly shows that more than half of the hunters on this forum alone believe that the system is not "fair" or needs some adjustments of some type.

  5. #5
    Member REMF's Avatar
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    This is no gripe to the current system (yea it is ) however I do feel there are flaws. How do we know itís fair?

    Has anyone witnessed the draw? Has anyone seen the ďprogramĒ ADF&G uses to produce the results? I believe they supposedly use a computer random generator; but there is no such thing as truly random when using computers.

    How can we trust some folks behind closed doors in secret running these programs?

    I truly feel the draw should be in a public forum, do it lotto style, you could assign numbers to people and then numbers to balls in a bin or something, have the draw on TV or in a public location and allow people to attend if they so desire. You could truly make an event out of it.

    I guess I just have a hard time trusting an organization that canít even stick to a posted timeline months in advance. ITíS NOT THAT HARD, and it brings in a lot of money.

  6. #6

    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by REMF View Post
    This is no gripe to the current system (yea it is ) however I do feel there are flaws. How do we know itís fair?

    Has anyone witnessed the draw? Has anyone seen the ďprogramĒ ADF&G uses to produce the results? I believe they supposedly use a computer random generator; but there is no such thing as truly random when using computers.

    How can we trust some folks behind closed doors in secret running these programs?

    I truly feel the draw should be in a public forum, do it lotto style, you could assign numbers to people and then numbers to balls in a bin or something, have the draw on TV or in a public location and allow people to attend if they so desire. You could truly make an event out of it.

    I guess I just have a hard time trusting an organization that canít even stick to a posted timeline months in advance. ITíS NOT THAT HARD, and it brings in a lot of money.
    heh heh,
    Here we have a State Agency that has so poorly performed their mission, that it has brought us to this brink. Now some one want to trust them further by allocating the crumbs they left behind and pay them to do it. First we paid them to manage the game, they failed. Now we are paying them to manage us. LUNACY at it's height.
    "96% of all Internet Quotes are suspect and the remaining 4% are fiction."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Akres View Post
    heh heh,
    Here we have a State Agency that has so poorly performed their mission, that it has brought us to this brink. Now some one want to trust them further by allocating the crumbs they left behind and pay them to do it. First we paid them to manage the game, they failed. Now we are paying them to manage us. LUNACY at it's height.
    Are they performing poorly? Or are they just performing the task the way it has been set up? At the bottom of all the grumbling, ADF&G was only 9 days behind schedule (if you thought March 31st was the draw date) vs. being right on time and giving some winners very little notice; btw, airlines pad their schedules the same way and they happen to be private sector.

    So could the system be changed? Perhaps...but I'd have to say that saying ADF&G has 'performed poorly' is inaccurate. JMO

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.No View Post
    I'd have to say that saying ADF&G has 'performed poorly' is inaccurate. JMO
    What then do you think is the reason for us having to scrabble and scrap for the dregs they can dig up, in the form of limited permits?

    I"ll give you my thoughts as to why:
    They have mismanaged the resources to the point of there being to few for the demand.
    They have mis-allocated too many resources to Special Interests, leaving an even lower number in general pool.
    They have not done one thing to improve habitat, in over twenty years.
    They have taken the money meant to protect the resources and squandered it on personnel.
    They have failed to manage the resources in accordance with the State Constitution.
    JMO
    "96% of all Internet Quotes are suspect and the remaining 4% are fiction."
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    I thought the thread was on the fairness of the lottery system, not whether or not one believes ADF&G has mismanaged resources.

    Personally, I like the idea of 1 permit per household. Maybe some people would think before putting in for 15 tags. Then again, maybe not.

  10. #10

    Default Rediculous

    The ADF&G isnt a corrupt buisness. What would there reasoning be to be such a corrupt organization? Yes, there are certain people who draw multiple tags each year in extremely low percentage draw rates, but what makes the system wrong. Every person has the same chance to win as everyone else does. Its simply random numbers that the computer selects, why dont you people see this. So if we go to a point system is that really going to change your odds that much. For example: 500 people put in for 4 permits...Your odds= .008% wow not very good. now the next year you get a point and only people with points get drawn.....496 people are going to have points if the same people put in for it so you will all have the same chance as the year before, or relatively close. In order for the so called "points" system to take place it would take years for people to aquire enough points to stand out from the other people and who knows one of those years you spent aquiring points you could have drawn a strictly random and equal draw tag.... Everyone just needs to suck it up and deal with the system the way it is..... Every year is the same scenario, everyone is anxious and happy before the draw results are in.... afterwards just complaining and random threads about how the system is wrong, mind you all posted by people that were not lucky enough to draw..... Look at all the other oppurtunities to hunt this great state that are out there. Yeah some can be expensive to get to... but really if your complaining this much, focus your time and energy on getting a better job instead of complaining about how the state of alaska is trying to screw you..... Sorry JMO.

  11. #11
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    Default Well

    I was talking to some guys that put in for the draw and one hasn't been drawn for anything in the last 4 years I would venture to guess. The other last 3 yrs this is the first time he didn;t get anything. But after talking with them one of them for moose put in for two valley hunts like DM 408 and DM 410 and his 3rd choice was DM 790 up in Delta jct something like 10 tags for that hunt. The other put in for only three moose tags and one was DM 790 and he has the nerve to tell me my tags I drew were garbage LOL. So I would venture to say most of these guys crying the blues were like these two knuckle heads putting in for tags that have a 1% draw rate.

  12. #12
    Member Burke's Avatar
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    Default fairness ?

    You are correct...fair is defined multiple ways. Agreed, mathematically speaking we have a fair system. Could the system be improved and become more fair, I think so. I am talking about the drawing itself with out factors of subsistence, game management, timing etc, etc...

    I consider myself pretty lucky compared to some....I have drawn one moose, three goat and one sheep tag in 4 or 5 (i forget) years.

    If I am not mistaken some tags (maybe all) restrict you from applying the year following a successful draw. This is regardless of harvest success.

    I think the points system may not be better in year one as slickwilly30 points out but over time it will be a benefit to those who consistently enter. People come and go changing the number, and if you add the restriction I mentioned above (Montana does 7 years between drawn tags) with something in between 1 and 7 years it also helps "balances" the odds. The draw remains random, we who enter multiple years each have one more chance in the bag. The draw is not only from those who have points, it is from both those with points and those new guys who do not have points yet. Instead of waiting 30 years (or never) to draw that one special tag, I have a better chance than my friend (or enemy) who moves into the state 10 years after I did.

    As far as limited tags per year/household, I am not sure about that one. There are many opportunities to hunt outside of drawing tags. I do wonder how many tags go unused due to drawing multiple tags the same year. Maybe if we thought we had a better chance of getting that coveted tag in our life time we wouldn't apply for 10 different tags each year and potentially drawing multiple tags we won't use therefore opening more opportunities for others and they too could be jumping for joy at this time of year. Because of the way things are now and it is so cheap to do so, many folks apply for any and all tags knowing the chances are slim ....
    Quote from Erik in Alaska (not trying to pick on you Erik), "...but I have to say I apply for 10 to 15 tags every year hoping to draw one. Just one. My expectation is I won't draw at all and my hope is to draw one tag.".......
    If I compare that to my experience in Montana, I knew I had a chance to draw each of the big three (goat, sheep and moose) within a reasonable time frame due to points and restrictions, so I only put in for goat the first couple years. Once I drew the goat (third year in the draw) I couldn't apply for another 7 years but I could go for sheep. To be fair, the cost of the entry was far greater than Alaska and that did play a role because you had to put more money up front...you got a refund minus administration cost if you didn't draw.
    I am sure some one could point out it's flaws, yet I thought the system worked and was fair.

    I would adamantly oppose any point system that allowed purchasing extra points....that would be unfair (IMHO), it puts the tags in the hands of those with money.

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by slickwilly30 View Post
    The ADF&G isnt a corrupt buisness. What would there reasoning be to be such a corrupt organization? Yes, there are certain people who draw multiple tags each year in extremely low percentage draw rates, but what makes the system wrong. Every person has the same chance to win as everyone else does. Its simply random numbers that the computer selects, why dont you people see this. So if we go to a point system is that really going to change your odds that much. For example: 500 people put in for 4 permits...Your odds= .008% wow not very good. now the next year you get a point and only people with points get drawn.....496 people are going to have points if the same people put in for it so you will all have the same chance as the year before, or relatively close. In order for the so called "points" system to take place it would take years for people to aquire enough points to stand out from the other people and who knows one of those years you spent aquiring points you could have drawn a strictly random and equal draw tag.... Everyone just needs to suck it up and deal with the system the way it is..... Every year is the same scenario, everyone is anxious and happy before the draw results are in.... afterwards just complaining and random threads about how the system is wrong, mind you all posted by people that were not lucky enough to draw..... Look at all the other oppurtunities to hunt this great state that are out there. Yeah some can be expensive to get to... but really if your complaining this much, focus your time and energy on getting a better job instead of complaining about how the state of alaska is trying to screw you..... Sorry JMO.
    This is coming form a guy who drew one of the most sought after brown bear tags available in the state (Frazer lake ). yeah.....I'd say the system is fair too, if I were sitting in your shoes!

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    This must be the thread for the people that did not draw a permit and won't think that it is a fair drawing until they get drawn for a permit.

  15. #15

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    I love the system, didnt draw chit but I hope it never changes. Maybe I'll be one who goes without for the next 20yrs, then again maybe I'll draw sheep, goat and caribou next year. Its better then a point system. Tags dont guarantee anything anyway.

  16. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlaskaCub View Post
    This is coming form a guy who drew one of the most sought after brown bear tags available in the state (Frazer lake ). yeah.....I'd say the system is fair too, if I were sitting in your shoes!
    Yeah I did get lucky this year and frankly I think it great. Did you put in for this tag? If you did then im sorry and you can tag along and shoot deer and goat all day along side me while I take a hopefully 10' plus bear...... I can garuantee you one thing if I didn't draw anything I wouldn't be on here griping and complaining I didn't win. I'de be planning a normal tag hunt and make the best of it because 99% of the time I hunt non-drawing hunts and have a great time. Sorry if people are upset by my earlier post but seems sometimes people have way to much time on there hands to sit and b**ch about a system that has been in service for years and has proven to work(for some obviously) for all of you that hasn't drawn anything ever...... I sell cheep rabbits feet..LOL

  17. #17

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    I hope you do whack a big one, seriously. And yes I have put in for Frazer lake many ..many times, this year too. Its just a ***** to really want to hunt a given area and just flat out not being able to. The moose, caribou , and other critters I really dont care about, have killed lots of em, and several that made the books, they are accessible via other routes. But to watch folks draw Kodiak over and over and over and seemingly not being able to draw a Kodiak tag to save my life frustrates a guy to no end. Chit, one of the guys in that thread about multiple winners has drawn a fall Kodiak tag twice in 3 years, *** over? And dont get me started on the 100% success rate of drawing a Kodiak brown as a non-resident via guaranteed tags through guides....ahhh the chit drives me crazy! Its those geographically specific coveted tags that the draw does no service to, and its not like you can just go hunt big Browns anywhere , and I wont even go into the story of my $2,000 + attempt at killing a big brown on the Peninsula 4 years ago, that hunt was a disaster in the making. Crowded would not define the experience we had.

    Then look at the thread started by D Schultz regarding her inability to draw a bison tag to kill the bison, that live on her land. But instead she charges a reasonable fee and assists dozens of hunters each year to kill one on her land. Its just not right the way it is now for specific hunts, and I believe the system needs to be curtailed to treat these specific hunts with the Trophy quality respect they offer! As to the large quantity moose and bou tag draw hunts, I am not of the belief that they need given the same consideration as some of these 2% or less hunts that IMO should be once in a lifetime type hunts.And yeah....Kodiak Brown bear is one of em!

  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlaskaCub View Post
    I hope you do whack a big one, seriously. And yes I have put in for Frazer lake many ..many times, this year too. Its just a ***** to really want to hunt a given area and just flat out not being able to. The moose, caribou , and other critters I really dont care about, have killed lots of em, and several that made the books, they are accessible via other routes. But to watch folks draw Kodiak over and over and over and seemingly not being able to draw a Kodiak tag to save my life frustrates a guy to no end. Chit, one of the guys in that thread about multiple winners has drawn a fall Kodiak tag twice in 3 years, *** over? And dont get me started on the 100% success rate of drawing a Kodiak brown as a non-resident via guaranteed tags through guides....ahhh the chit drives me crazy! Its those geographically specific coveted tags that the draw does no service to, and its not like you can just go hunt big Browns anywhere , and I wont even go into the story of my $2,000 + attempt at killing a big brown on the Peninsula 4 years ago, that hunt was a disaster in the making. Crowded would not define the experience we had.

    Then look at the thread started by D Schultz regarding her inability to draw a bison tag to kill the bison, that live on her land. But instead she charges a reasonable fee and assists dozens of hunters each year to kill one on her land. Its just not right the way it is now for specific hunts, and I believe the system needs to be curtailed to treat these specific hunts with the Trophy quality respect they offer! As to the large quantity moose and bou tag draw hunts, I am not of the belief that they need given the same consideration as some of these 2% or less hunts that IMO should be once in a lifetime type hunts.And yeah....Kodiak Brown bear is one of em!
    Actually I like the idea of these trophy hunts being a kind of out of the ordinary draw that might use some sort of point system to help hunters like yourself draw a tag. I am not opposed to a change in the system to a point but no matter how you change it your gonna have people on here who complain about the way it is. To make things even better I've killed moose, caribou and bear all across alaska. I'm 26 and went on my first float hunt on the tag river when I was four and know and respect why this hunt means. I will put what ever resources I have into this hint as I know it could be once in a lifetime. I hope others would do the same. I've never put in for kodiak until this year and look what I drew..... Can you say lucky?

  19. #19
    New member akhunter02's Avatar
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    Default Changes

    I think the system overall is fair, not corrupt. If there is any corruption its not with the system, its with the individuals implementing it. Whenever you put the human factor into a system, some type of curruption will ALWAYS follow.
    This corruption can be a subtle as Permit Applicants being told by insiders (little birdies) weeks in advance that they drew such and such permit and/or the release date will be on this day. There was one individual that posted here that new this info and posted as such multiple years.
    Or the corruption can be as bad as certain individuals getting permits by their names being inputted manually by insiders. Some one posted that some individuals of FWS were direct benefits of this type of corruption.
    If some one really wanted to find out if there is any merit to this theory all they would have to do is get a list of FWS members for this organization and match those names against the draw results over the past 10 or so years (this info can be easily requested thru Freedom of Information Act)
    If you find that certain members of FWS consistantly drew hard to get permits, you then have a argument; if not, its just plain dumb luck.

  20. #20
    Member Burke's Avatar
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    Default untrue

    Quote Originally Posted by akdd View Post
    This must be the thread for the people that did not draw a permit and won't think that it is a fair drawing until they get drawn for a permit.
    I have had my share of tags as a new comer to the state incluing this year's sheep tag and hope my luck continues...in the draw and the field.

    Do I think it is possible to address some of the issues people bring up regarding the equitability of the current system...yes...and I was commenting on my experiences and how they related to the system here. It is what it is and I am not saying it should change or not.
    I do not think it should change on the basis of whining about corruption and conspiracy.
    The state will never please everyone, ain't happening!
    However, there are numerous cases of folks I know that have lived her all their lives and have drawn less tags than I in five years. Are they frustrated yes and they deal with it (like Alaska cub ). I understand the frustration and think it could be remedied, will it? should it? I dont know, but it is possible.

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