Results 1 to 17 of 17

Thread: Reds predicted to be down 40%??

  1. #1
    Member Phish Finder's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Searching for more cowbell!
    Posts
    1,945

    Default Reds predicted to be down 40%??

    I read an editorial in the ADN today that mentioned the upcoming red prediction for the Kenai. A 40% decline is anticipated.

    Does anyone have a link to actual data or ADFG's report on this?
    ><((((º>¸.·´¯`·.¸¸.·´¯`·..¸¸ ><((((º>`·.¸¸¸.·´¯`·.¸¸><((((º>

    "People who drink light 'beer' don't like the taste of beer; they
    just like to pee a lot." --Capitol Brewery

  2. #2
    Member slimm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    shoshone idaho
    Posts
    559

    Default

    Is it just the Kenai run?? Or is the Russian included in when they mention Kenai reds??

  3. #3
    Member thewhop2000's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wasilla
    Posts
    2,366

    Default I'm looking but can't seem to find the info

    Maybe Alaskatally will read and then post where to find it.
    Hey, AKTALLY, where are you?
    If a dipnetter dips a fish and there is no one around to see/hear it, Did he really dip?

  4. #4
    Member MRFISH's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Anchorage
    Posts
    1,315

  5. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    2,448

    Default

    That does not look good at all. How did last years run measure up compared to the forecast and how was last years run based on the 20yr avg.

  6. #6
    Member AlaskaHippie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Beaver Fork
    Posts
    3,853

    Default

    And just last night I was lamenting the fact that I'll be missing the Kenai Sockeye season this summer......I suppose it may not be a bad thing after all.....
    “Life has become immeasurably better since I have been forced to stop taking it seriously.” ― H.S.T.
    "Character is how you treat those who can do nothing for you."

  7. #7
    Member thewhop2000's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wasilla
    Posts
    2,366

    Default I'm thinking we might halibut fish more...

    This coming season. Looks like I will be planning on taking home a lot less reds than I usually do., but hey, the resource comes first
    By the way, thank you Mrfish!!!
    Last edited by thewhop2000; 02-20-2010 at 12:29. Reason: cause I can that's why
    If a dipnetter dips a fish and there is no one around to see/hear it, Did he really dip?

  8. #8
    Member DRIFTER_016's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Yellowknife, NWT
    Posts
    3,318

    Default

    If the predictions are true it will be tough sledding during Fishapalooza this year. When you combine a low red return with a pink year I have found that the middle river fishes much better for trout than the upper. At least in my limited experience.

  9. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    2,448

    Default

    How is this years run predicted to be compared to what last years run actually was?

  10. #10

    Default

    While it is a forecast, that is all it is. Even our best scientists have challenges accurately predicting tomorrow's weather. Sometimes they even get yesterday's wrong! I suppose there is some merrit in their forecast, but there are a number of unknowns and variables that play a huge part too. It really wouldn't surprise me if the run was in the typical range this year.

  11. #11
    Member alaskachuck's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Anchorage, Alaska, United States
    Posts
    3,256

    Default

    Some of these experts cant even predict if the sun will rise in the east or the west. As usuall Ill take the wait and see look. Untill summer comes it is all just a bunch of guessing
    Grandkids, Making big tough guys hearts melt at first sight

  12. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    All-I-SAW, AK.
    Posts
    1,036

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by T.R. Bauer View Post
    While it is a forecast, that is all it is. Even our best scientists have challenges accurately predicting tomorrow's weather. Sometimes they even get yesterday's wrong! I suppose there is some merrit in their forecast, but there are a number of unknowns and variables that play a huge part too. It really wouldn't surprise me if the run was in the typical range this year.
    I agree...

    Coincidentally, I heard on the radio today that regarding the Kenai river, "they said" that the coho and chum runs would be better this year and the kings and reds would be similar to last years runs. So, who's right?

    Also, when the set nets were out last year in front of the Kasilof, they got some banner catches of reds and kings, yet the Kenai didn't get their fish numbers like usual. Hmmm... Where did the Kenai's fish go?

  13. #13
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Aberdeen WA
    Posts
    4,516

    Default Every cloud has a silver lining.....

    While I love sockeye on the BBQ (alder planked reds are to die for!), that run forecast suits my party's July-Aug itinerary just fine.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  14. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Alaska
    Posts
    34

    Default Reds down

    The irony is that the F&G management should still be managing the run for escapement. So, the size of the run does not correlate to the in river fish count or quality. Last year was a very down year but it made for more consistent, longer term 2nd run red fishing....as opposed to just a 3-5 day red hot time period when the runs are massive.

    The comm fish guys will be hurting. I do not think the forecast has anything to do with 1st run---Russian River fish--I do not think they even forecast that run.

  15. #15
    Member jmg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    At the end of the cul-de-sac
    Posts
    964

    Default

    That forecast says there will be a total run of 3.6 million fish. I only take home about 30 of them, so all should be fine.
    Never count your days, but rather, make all of your days count.

  16. #16
    Member liv2fish87's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Anchorage
    Posts
    278

    Default hmmmm

    i bet i still have my full stringer of them at the end of my float for rainbows!
    Go Fish

  17. #17
    Member ak_powder_monkey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Eagle River/ Juneau
    Posts
    5,154

    Default

    While the forecast is down I bet the escapement is the same as the last couple of years. Run sizes fluctuate but if they manage the fishery correctly escapement shouldn't change dramatically.
    I choose to fly fish, not because its easy, but because its hard.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •