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Thread: Kenai Keeper Forecast

  1. #1
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    Talking Kenai Keeper Forecast

    It's a bit early, I know... but according to my OWN trend analysis - we should have a better than average return this year and next. Given that Cook Inlet nets will be laden with salmon and the processors turning away business, we dippers should be enjoying a nice season with a surplus of fins heading for the Kenai and Kasilof.

    I may get only a few chances this year but I will fill my quota even if I have to stand in the Kasilof all night... (no offense K-Beach dippers)

    So there ya have it. A banner year prediction based on escapement data from the Kenai/Kasilof charts. For those that are curious; it looks like a six year cycle; two bum years and then a good one, then two great years then a good one and then back to the two bummers.

    Good luck everyone; see you at the Sportsman Show!!!
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

  2. #2

    Cool Check the ADFG Webb site on the 2010 Salmon Forcast

    According to thier new report salmon are going to as much as 40 plus % below the 20 year averages. We are may have a little trouble getting enough back in river if managers aren't careful.

    Bigfisherman

  3. #3
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    Default No offense but this is probably bogus

    Quote Originally Posted by Back Country Robb View Post
    It's a bit early, I know... but according to my OWN trend analysis - we should have a better than average return this year and next. Given that Cook Inlet nets will be laden with salmon and the processors turning away business, we dippers should be enjoying a nice season with a surplus of fins heading for the Kenai and Kasilof.

    I may get only a few chances this year but I will fill my quota even if I have to stand in the Kasilof all night... (no offense K-Beach dippers)

    So there ya have it. A banner year prediction based on escapement data from the Kenai/Kasilof charts. For those that are curious; it looks like a six year cycle; two bum years and then a good one, then two great years then a good one and then back to the two bummers.

    Good luck everyone; see you at the Sportsman Show!!!
    The official forecast will come out from ADF&G which takes into consideration fry production, brood year interactions, year class relationships, and other data. Using only escapement to make a forecast is not appropreiate and the escapement charts are for multiple brood years. Historically when ADF&G used only escapement data the forecast error was very large over the last 30 years.

    However, in 2005 there were 39 million fry in the Kenai system but smolt estimates showed poor overwinter survival and the size of the fry were very small. The return of 4 year old fish off the 2005 brood year was very poor which does not set well for the return of 5 year old fish. I think ADF&G is forecasting a return similar to last year based on this. We will see when the fish arrive - the 39 million fry offers the potential for a good return if the smolt numbers are bogus and the 4 year olds will return as 5 year olds. That usually does not happen but who knows.

    How much do you want to bet on your forecast back country rob? Give us a number we can use ---

  4. #4
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    Talking Okay

    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    The official forecast will come out from ADF&G which takes into consideration fry production, brood year interactions, year class relationships, and other data. Using only escapement to make a forecast is not appropreiate and the escapement charts are for multiple brood years. Historically when ADF&G used only escapement data the forecast error was very large over the last 30 years.

    However, in 2005 there were 39 million fry in the Kenai system but smolt estimates showed poor overwinter survival and the size of the fry were very small. The return of 4 year old fish off the 2005 brood year was very poor which does not set well for the return of 5 year old fish. I think ADF&G is forecasting a return similar to last year based on this. We will see when the fish arrive - the 39 million fry offers the potential for a good return if the smolt numbers are bogus and the 4 year olds will return as 5 year olds. That usually does not happen but who knows.

    How much do you want to bet on your forecast back country rob? Give us a number we can use ---
    I'll bet all of your money and none of mine.

    Seriously though, it has been four years since the big rainy year that may have blown out some fry... so I will concede that this years return probably will not be as spectacular as some; but I do still feel strongly that we will have an escapement that mirrors 2005's.
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

  5. #5
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    Default forecast is out

    The Kenai sockeye forecast is for a total return of around 1.7 million fish. The average return is around 3 million. The escapement goal will be 650,000 to 850,000 at the start of the season. Look for closures in the commercial fishery early if the Kenai return does look weak in reality. Also, do not plan for the last weekend of July to dip net. People may want to make sure they get on the fish during the first major push to the river. Locals will have an advantage here as they can react faster.

  6. #6
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    Default Doom and gloom

    Wow; Nerka that's a bit dark - I sincerely hope that it is a better return than you expect (or ADF&G). I like my optimistic outlook better.
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

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