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Thread: Party Permit Drawing... any advantage...

  1. #1
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    Question Party Permit Drawing... any advantage...

    Other than the obvious advantage that you and your partner can both hunt, is there any mathematical advantage, that is, a better chance of getting drawn going party? Here is what F&G says about how the process works. It sounds like you still only get "one name in the hat" so to speak.

    "The computer then randomly assigns a number to each hunt on each valid application. The random number is referred to as your "draw number." Party hunt applications receive one draw number for each hunt. That is, both applicants on the party hunt application receive the same draw number per hunt, so if that number is drawn, both party members receive a permit."

    http://www.wildlife.alaska.gov/index...ermits.lottery

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    Moderator LuJon's Avatar
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    Actually it will "slightly" reduce your odds to use the party draw option. Lets say that there are 5 permits available for the DS-super-awesome tag you and your partner have dreamed of. You guys are only in the pot for the first 4 drawings, if you strike out on the first 4 but then got pulled for the 5th and final tag you would not be awarded the tag. It would go back in the pot until a single hunter won it. SO basically a party tag lowers your draw odds by whatever percent cutting off the last tag would cause.

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    My buddy drew the 75th DS204 tag for 2009. We talked about putting in for a party permit, but knew the work schedules wouldn't line up so we opted to put in individually. If we put in as a party, he wouldn't have drawn and wouldn't have taken his first ram this year.

    There are a couple of hunts that I'll put in for on a party permit, only because I'm not interested in going on them without somebody else having the same opportunity with me. Other than that, I'll put in for individual tags for better odds.

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    If each party member had a draw number assigned, and therefore by you drawing, your partner won also, or vice versa, then I think it would be advantageous to apply as a party. He draws, they see it's a party application, and find your name and give you a permit too, that would be cool.

    Instead, you and and your partner have the same draw number which means you are both pulled out of the hat at the same time.

    Lujon makes a good point too

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    Member Ernie Scar's Avatar
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    I have to agree with Lujon as it probably lowers your odds but I've drawn more tags on a party hunt than as an individual, but who really knows it's a game of luck and it's always fun to throw your name in the hat.

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    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LuJon View Post
    SO basically a party tag lowers your draw odds by whatever percent cutting off the last tag would cause.
    It cuts your odds by more than that - it cuts them in half because you only have one name in the hat instead of two (or however many are going in on the party application).

    I've never submitted a party application for this very reason. I might this year, though, as I am considering a hunt that is logistically more challenging than those I typically apply for. As such, I want a partner to go on the hunt with me, and it would be more worthwhile if we both had permits. For the most part, though, I stick with individual permits for my wife and I since it gives us twice the chance to draw a single tag.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snyd View Post
    Other than the obvious advantage that you and your partner can both hunt, is there any mathematical advantage, that is, a better chance of getting drawn going party? Here is what F&G says about how the process works. It sounds like you still only get "one name in the hat" so to speak.

    "The computer then randomly assigns a number to each hunt on each valid application. The random number is referred to as your "draw number." Party hunt applications receive one draw number for each hunt. That is, both applicants on the party hunt application receive the same draw number per hunt, so if that number is drawn, both party members receive a permit."

    http://www.wildlife.alaska.gov/index...ermits.lottery
    I don't know about " random " your best bet is to try and make friends with someone on the " inside " . It's as crooked as anything else in this state.

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    You both have less chance individually of being drawn. But if you are drawn you get to hunt with a friend. And your chances of both being drawn go up quite a bit.

    As pointed out above you lose the chance of drawing the last tag. BUT....... instead or having two chances to draw if you put in individually, you only have one hunt number. That reduces the odds of one of you being drawn by 50%.

    For simplicity's sake, let's say there was a hunt with 10 permits and 100 people put in if you both were to apply separately. You would each have a 1 in 10 chance of being drawn or 10%. The chance of one of you being drawn is 2 out of 10 or 20%. The chance that you are both drawn would be 1 in 100, or 1%.

    Now you put in as a party, so there are only 99 applications. So you would have a 10 in 99 chance of being drawn or a 10.1% chance of being drawn. But as pointed out, you can't draw the last tag, so you would have a 9 in 99 chance of being drawn or a 9.09% chance of being drawn.

    So the chances of one of you being drawn is better individually 20% to 9.09%.
    The chances of you both being drawn is better as a party app. 9.09% to 1 %
    Your individual chance of being drawn is better individually than party by 10% to 9.09% So you take about a 10% hit to your chances of being drawn at all when you apply as a party in this scenario, Aprox 10% to 9%. But you up your chances of both being drawn 800%. from 1 % to 9%. Of course you up you chances of neither being drawn too.

    Of course all odds have to be calculated by the number of tags available and the number of people who apply. And how good your luck is.

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    Member Milo's Avatar
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    It can also seriously reduce your odds for certain hunts if your partner is a non resident. Kodiak bear hunts for example limit the number permits available for non-residents hunting with a resident relative.

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    I'm glad you figured all that out and posted it twodux. I've been thinking about it for a while (the odds and such) and well, let's just say that I went crossed eyed and sparks came out my ears

    Now that we all know how the odds are mathematically, check this out... I have a friend who put in for DCUA for 23 years before he got drawn. Then, two years later, another friend of mine and I put in for DCUA as a party and get drawn. It was the first time either one of us had put in for it! So much for mathematical odds huh?

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snyd View Post
    I'm glad you figured all that out and posted it twodux. I've been thinking about it for a while (the odds and such) and well, let's just say that I went crossed eyed and sparks came out my ears

    Now that we all know how the odds are mathematically, check this out... I have a friend who put in for DCUA for 23 years before he got drawn. Then, two years later, another friend of mine and I put in for DCUA as a party and get drawn. It was the first time either one of us had put in for it! So much for mathematical odds huh?
    Thats what you get can get with a random draw. Odds are the same the first time or the 23rd time. Unless you truely believe its corrupt in which case you shouldn't put it at all.

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    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yukonmcdade View Post
    I don't know about " random " your best bet is to try and make friends with someone on the " inside " . It's as crooked as anything else in this state.
    Like Milo just suggested, make sure you don't put in for any permits this year. Save your money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milo View Post
    ...limit the number permits available for non-residents....
    I'd like to see this happen with all permits. Residents should have a greater chance at a draw then non-residents. As it stands now it is feasible that non-residents could have a better chance than residents if more nr's apply than r's for the same hunt. But that's another thread.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snyd View Post
    I'd like to see this happen with all permits. Residents should have a greater chance at a draw then non-residents. As it stands now it is feasible that non-residents could have a better chance than residents if more nr's apply than r's for the same hunt. But that's another thread.
    Thank you for quoting my post completely out of context and you're a moderator, come on dude. Really?

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    Moderator LuJon's Avatar
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    Thanks for breaking it down twodux.

    So:
    Odds of YOU drawing a tag are slightly reduced w/ a party draw.
    Odds of either one of you drawing a tag are drastically reduced w/ a party draw.
    Odds of you AND your partner BOTH drawing a tag is significantly IMPROVED w/ a party draw.

  16. #16
    Member 379 Peterbilt's Avatar
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    IMO, if 2 hunting pards want to enter the same draw, there's (obviously)
    2 options:

    If their goal is to just lift one tag, and these 2 guys would be happy with just one or the other winning a tag, then enter seperate. (husband/wife wanting just one animal)

    If their goal is to BOTH lift a draw tag so they can BOTH hunt together, then enter together. (2 friends wanting to hunt together on a remote hunt - both want to go only if the partner can go)

    Yes, as said, this works against these two guys if one of their names get drawn for the last and final tag. The way I see it, just one of these 2 guys needs to get drawn (not counting the last remaining tag) and the other get gets a free piggy back in.

    JMO

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    Quote Originally Posted by 379 Peterbilt View Post

    Yes, as said, this works against these two guys if one of their names get drawn for the last and final tag. The way I see it, just one of these 2 guys needs to get drawn (not counting the last remaining tag) and the other get gets a free piggy back in.

    JMO
    The problem with that would be that everyone would soon be putting in for the party draw because it would double your chances of getting drawn individually in your scenario. You'd have your chance and your partner's chance. Then if everybody put in for a party draw, the odds would go back to the original individual odds.

    As pointed out, if you don't care who gets a tag, put in individually. If you only want to do the hunt if you and your pard get drawn, put in as a party.

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    Default Apology and clarification...

    Quote Originally Posted by Milo View Post
    Thank you for quoting my post completely out of context and you're a moderator, come on dude. Really?
    Sorry if I gave the wrong impression. It wasn't my intent to take anything out of context. That's why I put the "...'s" in there as an indicator that there was more you wrote. You mentioned non-residents not having as much chance for a draw for a specific hunt. I would just like to see all of them go that way. I wasn't trying to give the impression that you said that. Sorry if it came across that way.

    I hope all who read this will not take Milo's original post out of context. Again, I am sorry and it was/is not my intent to put words in his mouth or twist his original post in any way.

  19. #19
    Member pike_palace's Avatar
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    I think the advantage to a party draw would be if you were putting in for a tag that isn't that popular, and you have a higher percentage of getting multiple tags.
    "Ya can't stop a bad guy with a middle finger and a bag of quarters!!!!"- Ted Nugent.

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