I won my DM788 permit last year and was hunting pretty actively. I called in two bull moose (one was in 15-20 yrds form me). I saw numerous caws with calves. I provided plenty grouse to the table. I discovered a lot of interesting things, including bear tracks on the snow in late October in Chena Lakes RA. But I had no single chance for legal shoot. So, I got interested how badly I failed in terms of the success rate numbers for this hunt, which somehow I considered very productive.
Actually, that was true for 10 or so years ago (60-70% success rate). Last year the success rate was around 20%, three+ times lower compared to the first year when this hunt was established, 1995. And this is not the end of the story.
Since the hunt duration is nearly tripled starting from 2005 and the number of licenses (and, consequently, hunters) increased tenfold from 1995-96, to compare apples to apples I had to introduce and compute somewhat artificial but consistent parameter. It is "normalized" success rate per day per license. It can be treated as a simplistic estimate of chances to harvest a moose on daily basis for the license holder. Of course, it is much lower than the real chance for that, since nobody hunts the entire hunting period, leave alone that the successful hunter does not continue to hunt. Again, it is simplistic, underestimated, but pretty consistent value, as far as the entire period of 1995-2008 is concerned.
And this number differs drastically, roughly from 2% in 1995-96 to 0.2% in 2008, ten times fall off.
So, these my findings. I feel a bit better now (do I?), since DM788 evolved from apparent slum dunk in the 1990-es to rather chancy enterprise with quite limited success.
Below is the screen shot of EXCELL table I put together with AF&G info from
(Select a year and region 3 for the DM788 results. Since no data about hunt duration in 1995-99 is available, I had to assume that it is the same as during 2000-2005, namely 37 days. Also, no info of how many days people actually hunted is available, alas)