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Thread: Amended Opener Advice

  1. #1
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    Default Amended Opener Advice

    Might want to wait until early next week or mid-week OTF yesterday was over 200.
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

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    What does "OTF" mean?

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    Member garnede's Avatar
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    Offshore Test Fishery
    It ain't about the # of pounds of meat we bring back, nor about how much we spent to go do it. Its about seeing what no one else sees.

    http://wouldieatitagainfoodblog.blogspot.com/

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    Moderator Paul H's Avatar
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    I always use the 15th as a typical date for my trip the Kenai. Once I lucked into an early run on opening day and slayed them. But, another year I thought they'd be early, and I dipped for 5 hours for one fish.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Amended Opener Advice

    I have learned what "OTF" stands for from this thread.
    However, how do you intrepret the numbers? 100 in another thread was supposed to be good, but 200 isn't?
    Do the numbers represent the amount of time it takes to get a certain number of fish, or the number of fish in a certain amount of time?

    AK Chappy

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    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AK_Chappy View Post
    However, how do you intrepret the numbers? 100 in another thread was supposed to be good, but 200 isn't?
    I think his point is that 200 is even better, and that when those fish show up next week sometime (I'm not certain on the average time it takes...maybe Robb can further explain), the fishing should be smokin' hot.

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    Member homerdave's Avatar
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    i always used to plan the second set of building tides in july... we always got all our fish in one trip.
    i quit dipping the kenai when they started to close it at night, my schedule wouldn't let me go during the day.
    Alaska Board of Game 2015 tour... "Kicking the can down the road"
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    Member coho slayer's Avatar
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    I was thinking about hitting the Kenai on Monday or Tuesday....how do those OTF numbers look for those days? I'm not sure how long it takes the test fish to hit the river, and I am somewhat baffled by the commfish openings and closings...lol.

    Any advice??

  9. #9
    Member homerdave's Avatar
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    Default my prediction....

    the big hit will be the incoming tides in the morning, the 19th,20th, 21st.
    Alaska Board of Game 2015 tour... "Kicking the can down the road"
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    Member coho slayer's Avatar
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    Really? It takes that long to get to the Kenai? I'd think it'd just be a few days, but what do I know.

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    Wink OTF - And Timing Adivice

    OTF Explained -
    Several test sites are used to net fish (from 4 to 6 usually), this is a forecasting model used to estimate the population of salt water fish in Cook inlet and when to release more EO's to extend commercial openers.

    If you look at the historical data, OTF's above 80 put fishable numbers on the PU's in both Kasilof and Kenai. OTF of 100+ equals pretty good fishing and OTF's above 160 equals phenomenal dipnet opportunities... with the caveat that weather and EO's don't hinder the bulge (I call the gigantic schools the bulge), the bulges get split up with commercial activity and regroup before hitting the beach (my theory), another item to consider is that there are rules changing for gear types of commercial guys and EO's extending fishing time so who really knows when the fish are going to be there. I conjecture that there is going to be some good tides of fishing this weekend but overall the bulge hits are not going to really materialize until middle of next week into next weekend.

    I'd really recommend waiting for another week if you focused on filling up in one trip. Those of us die-hards really don't care if there's a limit to be caught or not, its just plain fun to dipnet.


    Date OTF
    7/5 -135
    7/6 -67
    7/7 -113
    7/8 -204

    But the historical run data timing are not favorable for this weekend; another weird year for predicting fish - gotta love it. (I do)
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

  12. #12
    Member homerdave's Avatar
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    Default i have never paid any attention to the OTF.

    my prediction is based solely on the tides and personal experience.
    Alaska Board of Game 2015 tour... "Kicking the can down the road"
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  13. #13
    Member coho slayer's Avatar
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    Thanks Dave and Robb...I am, as usual, trying to narrow this down to only one necessary trip of a couple of days. It's hard for me to work more time in then that between work and family commitments. I typically have Monday-Tuesdays off, but the week after next week it's Tue-Wed, so maybe that would be better timing. Kind of sounds like it, really.

    I don't need an entire limit. I figure we'd quit when we hit 40 or so (with a proxy for an elder, we can theoretically get up to 80 fish for the family and proxy). That should be more then adequate. We've still got a big trip (an entire week) planned to hit the Valdez silvers at the end of August, and I almost always finish strong with silvers.

    I'll hold off a week and see how it looks. Thanks for the useful info, and as soon as you can predict the weather, tides, and commercial EO's, let us know well in advance!

  14. #14
    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    I understand folks wanting to ensure that things will be rolling when they take their one trip down there, but sometimes if you wait to hear things are good...you've already waited too long. Case in point, last year a friend and I headed down on the 14th. Reports hadn't been stellar and I wasn't excited about going that early, but he wanted to go and I wanted to spend the day dipping with my friend. Short story, we each caught 30+ fish from the beach in less than two hours. By that afternoon things had slowed, and by the next day the fishing had died. There were a few spurts over the following weeks, but my understanding is that the one morning we fished was by far the best few hours of dipping for the entire season on the Kenai last year.

    Planning based on stats and reports is great, but sometimes...the early bird prevails. As for us, we'll be there sometime around the 15th. That being said, I've got the luxury of being able to go again if necessary. Best of luck to the rest of you as you roll the dice and bet on when to be there.

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    Member coho slayer's Avatar
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    Yeah, it's fishing. It's all a crap-shoot, really. Just because the numbers look good now doesn't mean much, especially when those numbers could be vastly diminished by the commfish fleet, and because the fish aren't on any set schedule. We can guess in a way that makes us feel educated, but it often just comes down to luck. Sometimes you just have to go when you can and hope for the best. I may still end up going next week...some of depends on when my wife's schedule permits as well, so there is coordinating yet to figure out.

  16. #16
    Premium Member denalihunter's Avatar
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    Default Find out in real time!

    If you want to find out for sure if the fish are running, just call me or my wife at 283-3775. We know within a half hour if they are hitting purely by the numbers of people going down the beach access. Everyone has cell phones, so within 30 minutes everyone in Kenai shows up if the fish do.

    Good Luck!
    Experience Real Alaska! www.alpinecreeklodge.com

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    We are planning a trip down to Kasilof this weekend. Hopefully we will be successful. The last 2 weekends we came back with nothing. At least we got out of town for a bit.

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    Member thewhop2000's Avatar
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    Thumbs up Kudo's Denalihunter!!!!

    That is pretty kind of you by offering your number. Do you drink Beer? Just offering that on this thread, I'm thinking deserves another act of random kindness. Let me know the brand!!!! Ken

  19. #19

    Default denalihunter

    He likes people camping right in his yard too. And don't forget to bring the really loud, large dogs. He doesn't like to sleep in the summer time anyway.
    "Everything that lives and moves will be food for you. Just as I gave you the green plants, I now give you everything."

  20. #20

    Default can you explain this a little

    Quote Originally Posted by homerdave View Post
    my prediction is based solely on the tides and personal experience.
    Someone called it building tides. What is that? I know, I was born and raised about as far from the ocean as you can get. A true flatlander! LOL
    Are you saying the tides that have the big fish in the tide book are only good for the halibut and not the salmon?

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