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Thread: 2nd run reds

  1. #1

    Default 2nd run reds

    When does the second run of reds on the kenai peak? Around the 15th-20th of this month? Im trying to figure out if I should make the run down there next weekend with a new raft and give it a shot again(skunked last weekend :S)

  2. #2

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    seriously skunked last weekend? Where'd ya fish? Sunday was crazy full of fish! Sat evening took awhile but I managed to get my 6 by a little after 11...was sweatn the last one wasnt going to come!

  3. #3
    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    Default

    Where are you planning to fish? For the lower river, I would say that the peak would fall somewhere around the 20th-24th, whereas the upper river peaks more around the 25th-29th. There are just rough dates, but these should be stacked with fish if the 2nd run is anything like the first Russian run.

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    Member TYNMON's Avatar
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    Default Runs have been late the last 4 years...

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian M View Post
    Where are you planning to fish? For the lower river, I would say that the peak would fall somewhere around the 20th-24th, whereas the upper river peaks more around the 25th-29th. There are just rough dates, but these should be stacked with fish if the 2nd run is anything like the first Russian run.
    Runs have been late the last 4 years... I would say that fishing has been best from July 23- August 8th in the lower river and week to two weeks later in the middle and Upper River.

    Who knows maybe they will be on time... The commercial catch has such a influence on escapement it is really hard to say when th epeak will be esp on a run that is forcast to be small like this year.

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    Question small red run

    Quote Originally Posted by TYNMON View Post
    Runs have been late the last 4 years... I would say that fishing has been best from July 23- August 8th in the lower river and week to two weeks later in the middle and Upper River.

    Who knows maybe they will be on time... The commercial catch has such a influence on escapement it is really hard to say when th epeak will be esp on a run that is forcast to be small like this year.
    I think last year the big push hit on july 15th I think thats average the three years before the reds were 5-7 days later......... Who is predicting a small red run this year ? all I have heard is that they dont know what the run will be like because of an overescapment fom the parent run. my bet is that it will be a good run its got to be better than last year and if its any thing like the parent run it will be a wide open crazzzzzy run of reds rember the three day fish counts of 133k 117k 96k

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    Member TYNMON's Avatar
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    Default Where did you get your mis-information????

    Quote Originally Posted by ripndrag View Post
    I think last year the big push hit on july 15th I think thats average the three years before the reds were 5-7 days later......... Who is predicting a small red run this year ? all I have heard is that they dont know what the run will be like because of an overescapment fom the parent run. my bet is that it will be a good run its got to be better than last year and if its any thing like the parent run it will be a wide open crazzzzzy run of reds rember the three day fish counts of 133k 117k 96k
    Here is the data straight from ADFG:
    Outlook
    The projection of the 2006 run of late run sockeye salmon returning to the Kenai River of 3.1 million fish is 16% less then the 20-year average run of 3.7 million. With this run projection, the department will begin the season managing the commercial fishery for a run size between 2-4 million sockeye salmon. The department will re-analyze the run strength around July 22, and management strategy may change depending on revisited statements.
    If the forecast us for a run between 2-4 million sockeye salmon (as it is this year), the department shall manage for an inriver goal range of 750,000-950,000 sockeye salmon and may allow additional 51 hours of set gillnet time per week as weel as two, 12-hour regular periods.
    http://cf.adfg.state.ak.us/region2/p...ockeye08mp.pdf

    Correct me if I am wrong, but it is likely this year will be just on par for the last two years and hopefully they do not over fish them as they did last year... Last years in river was bleak at best....

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    Quote Originally Posted by TYNMON View Post
    Here is the data straight from ADFG:



    http://cf.adfg.state.ak.us/region2/p...ockeye08mp.pdf

    Correct me if I am wrong, but it is likely this year will be just on par for the last two years and hopefully they do not over fish them as they did last year... Last years in river was bleak at best....
    TY I think youre looking at the 2008 forcast the 2009 forcast is diferent

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    Default My bad... Here is the real 09' forcast...

    Quote Originally Posted by ripndrag View Post
    TY I think youre looking at the 2008 forcast the 2009 forcast is diferent
    Here it is, 27% 20 year average and or 0.9 million short of the 20 year average @ 2.4 million.


  10. #10

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    I will be floating the upper river. I'll be in PWS for a few days around the 18th, so I guess I'll hit it the following weekend. Might try some trout fishing up north next weekend instead. Thanks for the info guys.

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    Default thanks TY

    Quote Originally Posted by TYNMON View Post
    Here it is, 27% 20 year average and or 0.9 million short of the 20 year average @ 2.4 million.

    Do you think that a small overescapment is going to hurt this run or help it ? I dont think fish and game knows......quote....there is considerable uncertianty in the 2009 kenai sockeye salmon run .....IF THIS RUN TURNS OUT TO BE A LARGER THAN NORMAL RUN DO YOU THINK FISH AND GAME WILL REVIEW AND MAKE CHANGES TO ESCAPMENT OBJECTIVES...just asking also does age 1.3 salmon = bigger average fish in this run .

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    Default I could only dream of such a thing...

    Quote Originally Posted by ripndrag View Post
    Do you think that a small overescapment is going to hurt this run or help it ? I dont think fish and game knows......quote....there is considerable uncertianty in the 2009 kenai sockeye salmon run .....IF THIS RUN TURNS OUT TO BE A LARGER THAN NORMAL RUN DO YOU THINK FISH AND GAME WILL REVIEW AND MAKE CHANGES TO ESCAPMENT OBJECTIVES...just asking also does age 1.3 salmon = bigger average fish in this run .

    Pretty certain that ADFG is set in their escapement numbers and have solid data to back up Overescapement negatives... Personally, I think year or overescapement should be allowed more often for so many obvious reasons and seem to me that attemting to flat line escapments to increase production really could have some long term ecological side effects... Nerka is much better to answer this question and I of course have a very biased opinion...

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