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Thread: How much does angler effort increase when bait allowed on Kenai?

  1. #1
    Member moose-head's Avatar
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    Default How much does angler effort increase when bait allowed on Kenai?

    When bait is opened on the Kenai undoubtedly there is an increase in effort. Is this a significant increase? Does this impact the guides who depend on the fishery for their livelihood? I would like to see the river opened so that the fish are more accessable, but how much of an actual economic effect/difference does the bait/no bait regulation have on those who are most directly affected economically; guides, tackle shops, resutaurants, espresso stands, cops writing tickets etc?
    Last edited by moose-head; 06-13-2009 at 14:18. Reason: speling
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    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Default Not sure...

    ..... but maybe it's high time we find out just how much for 2009.

    Never know 'til you try.

    Where's the bait ???
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    Member TYNMON's Avatar
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    Default I thought u where on the conservative end of things..

    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    ..... but maybe it's high time we find out just how much for 2009.

    Never know 'til you try.

    Where's the bait ???
    Rumors on the street is the fishing is still very tough and the already counterfiet sonar numbers are dropping lower instead of gaining momentum... Looks pretty tough for the Early Run, hope things fair better for the late run Kings...

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    Default Looks very very bleak...

    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    ..... but maybe it's high time we find out just how much for 2009.

    Never know 'til you try.

    Where's the bait ???
    While many of ppl may not want to hear this... Looks at though the numbers are so bad that we should feel fortunate that there is really even a king fishery open.... FYI if ADFG where to go back and correct the number is likely that the fishery could go to catch and release.... Doubt anyone wants that...... At this point it may be more important to ensure at least their is a minimial escapement.

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    Premium Member Wyo2AK's Avatar
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    Default so much to learn...

    counterfeit sonar numbers???
    Pursue happiness with diligence.

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    Default Sockeye = chinook...

    Quote Originally Posted by Wyo2AK View Post
    counterfeit sonar numbers???
    Not exactly suyre how it happens but when lots of sockeye are moving through it makes multiple fish look like one large taget... So sockeye are counterfiet chinook.

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    Member moose-head's Avatar
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    Default

    Will it be 'no bait' all summer?
    If you board the wrong train, it is no use running along the corridor in the other direction.
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    Default Open on July 1st..

    Quote Originally Posted by moose-head View Post
    Will it be 'no bait' all summer?
    Should still open on the 1st.

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    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Default From the latest ADFG Kenai report...

    The department believes that the cumulative estimate of king salmon passage into the Kenai River in 2009 may be biased high due to the large influx of sockeye salmon. Factors that the Department has taken into account include: low catch rates in the sport fishery, low catch rates of king salmon in the department test net project, and additional indices of king salmon passage from the sonar project.

    These factors in combination with below average run strength of king salmon throughout Cook Inlet this year dictate the early-run fishery be managed conservatively. Consequently, no in-season management actions are anticipated at this time.

    Overall, fishing conditions are good; however, low numbers of king salmon are entering the river at this time.
    Wonder if ADFG will still open it to bait river-wide next week?

    Or will they continue their conservative posturing and EO an on-going bait restriction above Soldotna Bridge thru at least mid-July?
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    Default I agree

    If fish and game believes that the sonar error was great enough that they needed to keep it closed to bait in June it would make no sense to open it to bait above the bridge July 1. Why try to protect the fish for almost all of their "in river" life and then throw them to the wolves as soon as they prepare to spawn? I hope they have the guts to make the call.

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    Default Spawning santuary closures...

    Quote Originally Posted by gotfish? View Post
    If fish and game believes that the sonar error was great enough that they needed to keep it closed to bait in June it would make no sense to open it to bait above the bridge July 1. Why try to protect the fish for almost all of their "in river" life and then throw them to the wolves as soon as they prepare to spawn? I hope they have the guts to make the call.
    I believe most of these are already protected for the most part... One exception could be further restrictions above the Soldotna Bridge... But, unlikely the lower river would be affected by any further restrictions on the early run.

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    Default Did I Miss Something Tynmon?

    Ummmm ...... I think that's what I just said.

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    Default My bad...

    Quote Originally Posted by gotfish? View Post
    Ummmm ...... I think that's what I just said.

    I misinterpreted what you said.. I thin kthat u could have not been more clear..

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    Default

    Talked to "someone" at ADF&G on Saturday and they stated that since the management plan calls for the Kenai to open to bait on July 1 below Skilak Lake that is what they are planning to do based on the current counts. I even asked if they had thought about keeping the Kenai River above the Soldotna Bridge closed to bait until the slot limit comes off later in July but did not get very far. So right now it looks like it will go to bait at least up to the Moose River. This is a Big Bummer in my book.
    If the king numbers are so low that we cannot go to bait before July 1 these same first run kings should be protected as long as they are in route just like the slot limit protects the 46 - 55 inchers for the extra time above the Soldotna Bridge. I am keeping my fingers crossed hoping that on July 1 bait is allowed but only below the Soldotna Bridge!

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    Default Very good points Iceblue...

    Quote Originally Posted by iceblue View Post
    Talked to "someone" at ADF&G on Saturday and they stated that since the management plan calls for the Kenai to open to bait on July 1 below Skilak Lake that is what they are planning to do based on the current counts. I even asked if they had thought about keeping the Kenai River above the Soldotna Bridge closed to bait until the slot limit comes off later in July but did not get very far. So right now it looks like it will go to bait at least up to the Moose River. This is a Big Bummer in my book.
    If the king numbers are so low that we cannot go to bait before July 1 these same first run kings should be protected as long as they are in route just like the slot limit protects the 46 - 55 inchers for the extra time above the Soldotna Bridge. I am keeping my fingers crossed hoping that on July 1 bait is allowed but only below the Soldotna Bridge!
    Those are some great points.... 1/3 of the early run harvest is above the Soldotna Bridge.......

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    Default

    I too would like to see fishing closed above the Soldotna bridge. It makes sense and unfortunately that's what scares me.

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    Thumbs down Bad numbers are still bad numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by iceblue View Post
    Talked to "someone" at ADF&G on Saturday and they stated that since the management plan calls for the Kenai to open to bait on July 1 below Skilak Lake that is what they are planning to do based on the current counts.
    If that is ADFG's explanation, that's a TOTALLY unacceptable double standard.

    It really begs the question....

    Wasn't there also a management plan in place to open bait in June once the numbers showed that the projected escapement would fall within the OEG?

    But when the constituents lobbied for them to simply "follow the plan" based on the solid published numbers, we were told there was actually "too much" uncertainty in the sonar numbers to follow the plan to the letter. At the time they didn't know whether 5000 fish was really 5000 fish or 3000 fish or perhaps even lower. A precautionary approach should rule the day. So be it.... concessions were made to manage outside the plan for the good of the resource. Fine, we can live with it.

    But now fast forward to July 1. Suddenly the numbers are just fine, and the late run plan can be implemented without concerns.



    So when the calendar kicks over ONE day, are they so confident that the numbers can suddenly be trusted? Two letters in the month change from N-E to L-Y, and magically the numbers can relied upon? Is this really what they expect the public to believe?

    ****

    Look if there was so much doubt in the validity of the numbers that they felt compelled to withhold bait in June, the same flawed dataset is still what they are working with in July. The precautionary approach should still rule they day.

    "Follow the plan" is a strategy that's already been abandoned in the name of conservation. ADFG cannot maintain the moral and ethical high ground by pulling a "bait-and-switch" midstream.

    ****

    Seriously, if what iceblue posted is correct (and I have absolutely no reason to doubt him) then how does ADFG reconcile that stance against this published statement in their weekly Kenai Report?

    The department believes that the cumulative estimate of king salmon passage into the Kenai River in 2009 may be biased high due to the large influx of sockeye salmon. Factors that the Department has taken into account include: low catch rates in the sport fishery, low catch rates of king salmon in the department test net project, and additional indices of king salmon passage from the sonar project.

    These factors in combination with below average run strength of king salmon throughout Cook Inlet this year dictate the early-run fishery be managed conservatively.
    HOW?
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    Default I'll be the pessimist

    I think the number of Kings this year is lower than any of us wants to consider. I have no scientific evidence, just a gut feeling based on 30 years of fishing the river almost everyday. Fish and Game is trying to have their cake and eat it too. Afterall, if the first run is healthy enough to not be closed to sport fishing it sure makes it easier to drop in the nets and start mopping up those reds without having to listen to the sport community holler about the commercial guys catching some of those pesky kings. I wish somebody could convince me that the kings are given equal consideration when it comes to managing the Kenai. If they shut down the in river fishing for kings (was it ever discussed? how did that conversation go?) then how are they going to keep the July reds from over escaping? With the exploitation rate for kings at an all time low (which I don't buy, I believe the exploitation rate is probably about average and the reason it appears so low is because the kings were grossly over counted) fish and game must figure that the few that are being caught right now won't be significantly risky to the spawning population. If my gut feeling is correct, if the test net is correct, if the exploitation rate is correct if adjusted for the "ghost" kings, then this run is teetering on disasterous. If they leave it open to bait above the Soldotna Bridge after July 1 it will prove to me once and for all that the current leadership at Fish and Game is more interested in catching reds in the inlet than they are about protecting the finest strain of King Salmon on the planet.
    Last edited by gotfish?; 06-23-2009 at 22:03. Reason: clarity

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    Member TYNMON's Avatar
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    Default Interesting to see what the Funny River Escapment will be..

    Quote Originally Posted by gotfish? View Post
    I think the number of Kings this year is lower than any of us wants to consider. I have no scientific evidence, just a gut feeling based on 30 years of fishing the river almost everyday. Fish and Game is trying to have their cake and eat it too. Afterall, if the first run is healthy enough to not be closed to sport fishing it sure makes it easier to drop in the nets and start mopping up those reds without having to listen to the sport community holler about the commercial guys catching some of those pesky kings. I wish somebody could convince me that the kings are given equal consideration when it comes to managing the Kenai. If they shut down the in river fishing for kings (was it ever discussed? how did that conversation go?) then how are they going to keep the July reds from over escaping? With the exploitation rate for kings at an all time low (which I don't buy, I believe the exploitation rate is probably about average and the reason it appears so low is because the kings were grossly over counted) fish and game must figure that the few that are being caught right now won't be significantly risky to the spawning population. If my gut feeling is correct, if the test net is correct, if the exploitation rate is correct if adjusted for the "ghost" kings, then this run is teetering on disasterous. If they leave it open to bait above the Soldotna Bridge after July 1 it will prove to me once and for all that the current leadership at Fish and Game is more interested in catching reds in the inlet than they are about protecting the finest strain of King Salmon on the planet.

    Funny R fish should be starting to run stong and it will be interesting to see the numbers... Last years number where small and this being the 4th year of the only real king numbers for the entire watershed, may give some more evidence to the strength of this years early run.

  20. #20

    Default Just Curious

    Quote Originally Posted by gotfish? View Post
    I think the number of Kings this year is lower than any of us wants to consider. I have no scientific evidence, just a gut feeling based on 30 years of fishing the river almost everyday. Fish and Game is trying to have their cake and eat it too. Afterall, if the first run is healthy enough to not be closed to sport fishing it sure makes it easier to drop in the nets and start mopping up those reds without having to listen to the sport community holler about the commercial guys catching some of those pesky kings. I wish somebody could convince me that the kings are given equal consideration when it comes to managing the Kenai. If they shut down the in river fishing for kings (was it ever discussed? how did that conversation go?) then how are they going to keep the July reds from over escaping? With the exploitation rate for kings at an all time low (which I don't buy, I believe the exploitation rate is probably about average and the reason it appears so low is because the kings were grossly over counted) fish and game must figure that the few that are being caught right now won't be significantly risky to the spawning population. If my gut feeling is correct, if the test net is correct, if the exploitation rate is correct if adjusted for the "ghost" kings, then this run is teetering on disasterous. If they leave it open to bait above the Soldotna Bridge after July 1 it will prove to me once and for all that the current leadership at Fish and Game is more interested in catching reds in the inlet than they are about protecting the finest strain of King Salmon on the planet.

    What does the health of the early-run kings on the Kenai have to do with commercial fishing on late-run Kenai reds? The late-run of kings on the Kenai is what we will need to keep our eye on. Given the trends in Chinook escapement all over Cook Inlet, coupled with the pre-season forecast of late-run Kenai kings being well below average (remember, the early-run kings were forecast at 16.4k (average), and they probably won't reach 12k), there is a good chance we might not meet escapement needs in the late-run. It will be the health of this run that determines the fate of how commercial fishing is done in July, as dictated by the Kenai River late-run sockeye and Chinook management plans. Again, I don't see how going to bait in July upstream of the bridge (in terms of harvest on early-run kings) has anything to do with commercial fishing in July???

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