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Thread: Draw odds question

  1. #1

    Default Draw odds question

    I have not seen this years sheep draw section (was not out last time I checked). I have seen last years, at the end they list draw odds.

    Do these odds simply list all apps that list that hunt as a choice? If so odds are actually a lot better since most guys list 3 choice right?

    Do posted odds just list first choices to account for this?

  2. #2
    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    Default

    The odds that they post account for all applications, regardless of choice. They do specify in there, however, that applying for more permits will increase your overall odds of drawing one, however.

    -Brian

  3. #3
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    Default Odds

    Don, the odds listed for each hunt are figured by the success for that hunt by all applicants whether it was a first, second or third choice.

    Say in Hunt A 100 people applied, 30 as a first choice, 25 as a second choice and 45 as a third choice. if only 5 tags are being drawn from 100 applicants the hunt would have a 5% draw rate whether the successful hunters were 1st, second, or third choice applicants. If 1000 people applied and 5 tags are drawn, then the success rate is .5%

    You can up your odds for success on a particular animal by applying for all three choices tho. (those odd would be determined by how many people apply for a second or a third hunt) But your chances on an individual hunt are the same. If you apply for three different hunts with a 5% chance of being drawn, you have the same odds on each hunt, but you have three different hunts you might be drawn for.

    The reason they ask you to list your preference instead of just giving three equal choices is, if the computer happens to draw you for two different hunts for a particular animal, after the first drawing is done, the computer will award you the hunt of your highest choice and kick the other back in to be redrawn in someone else's name. So it's important to list the hunts in the correct order of prefference, otherwise, you might lose that super exclusive Tok Ram tag and end up with a Chugach ewe tag, even tho you had your heart set on Tok.

  4. #4

    Default

    That is what I thought, odds are actually better then since most guys list 3 choices.

    For example if this year 100 guys go for 100 tags then odds are 10:1, by listing 3 choices each odds are not 300:1

    Good news then - odds are better then they seem, but maybe not by much. I bet many guys list only 1 choice, in NM where you can list 3 many only list 1, never figured out why.

  5. #5
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    Default odds

    If 100 guys went for 100 tags, that would be 1 to 1 or 100% draw odds. If 100 guys put in for 300 tags, there would be 200 undrawn tags unless it was an animals with a bag limit of more than one.

  6. #6

    Default odds

    Those are my kind of odds. Now if only know one else would put in, it'd be there.

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