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Thread: 2008 Fish Returns????

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    Member Dupont Spinner's Avatar
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    Default 2008 Fish Returns????

    Ok here is my observations to date.....any one else with info please add or confirm.

    As far as I see it the only fish returning in any decent numbers this year are hatchery raised fish. Deshka River specifically will see it's worst return for Kings since they have been keeping track. The Pink run also has not materialize. Silvers are still 2 weeks out from peak but seem to be close to average.

    Last week when we were on the Eastside of PWS the only Pinks that returned in any numbers were the hatchery fish. Silvers were making their appearance but all are just personal/second hand observations.

    I use the Pinks as my barometer becuase of the high numbers in their return and they populate the same streams as the most of the other salmon. A drop of 10 or 15 percent doesn't effect their run as dramatically as the others.


    Anyone else seeing the same or have different info?

    Let's hope the fish just decided to hold out for next year but my crystal ball is looking a little cloudy just like our weather.

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    Default some returns are above average.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dupont Spinner View Post
    Ok here is my observations to date.....any one else with info please add or confirm.

    As far as I see it the only fish returning in any decent numbers this year are hatchery raised fish. Deshka River specifically will see it's worst return for Kings since they have been keeping track. The Pink run also has not materialize. Silvers are still 2 weeks out from peak but seem to be close to average.

    Last week when we were on the Eastside of PWS the only Pinks that returned in any numbers were the hatchery fish. Silvers were making their appearance but all are just personal/second hand observations.

    I use the Pinks as my barometer becuase of the high numbers in their return and they populate the same streams as the most of the other salmon. A drop of 10 or 15 percent doesn't effect their run as dramatically as the others.


    Anyone else seeing the same or have different info?

    Let's hope the fish just decided to hold out for next year but my crystal ball is looking a little cloudy just like our weather.
    Kasilof river sockeye salmon are running twice the average return or more. These are wild fish except for a very small - few percent hatchery fish planted as spring fry - so they go through the freshwater rearing phase.

    Bristol Bay sockeye I believe were on forecast.

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    Member Dupont Spinner's Avatar
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    Studying more of the weir/sonar counts most fisheries are down about 25% on average, except for a few areas. If you really run the numbers on the Kasilof the numbers are well below their 6 year average of 375,500 fish, but with about 2 weeks to go it's still possible for to maybe make their 6 year average but as I see it they are also going to finish between 15 to 25% below average. If you also look at the '03 & '04 returns you will see that those two years , for the Kasilof, had an average return of 468,661 which would put the current return at only little more then 50% of those average returns. 2008 should be the average return time for the '03/'04 return cycle. So if it is true about the Kasilof running above average their current numbers are not validating their statements.

    As far as the Bristol bay returns.......I know they use aircraft to calculate school size/fish numbers and I believe that this is a flawed method. Also the counts are not always near spawning areas nor done in clear water. So the count is a general swag at some fictitous number.

    So I am tracking or completely dumb????


    Please note I hate posting percentages as they can be a very biased number but it is the only way I can do it without filling pages with numbers and calculations. I have used the counts made available by F&G to post my findings and would like to see/hear from those who fish/use these areas to see if what I am calculating is true or not.

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    Default your missing a bigger picture

    Quote Originally Posted by Dupont Spinner View Post
    Studying more of the weir/sonar counts most fisheries are down about 25% on average, except for a few areas. If you really run the numbers on the Kasilof the numbers are well below their 6 year average of 375,500 fish, but with about 2 weeks to go it's still possible for to maybe make their 6 year average but as I see it they are also going to finish between 15 to 25% below average. If you also look at the '03 & '04 returns you will see that those two years , for the Kasilof, had an average return of 468,661 which would put the current return at only little more then 50% of those average returns. 2008 should be the average return time for the '03/'04 return cycle. So if it is true about the Kasilof running above average their current numbers are not validating their statements.

    As far as the Bristol bay returns.......I know they use aircraft to calculate school size/fish numbers and I believe that this is a flawed method. Also the counts are not always near spawning areas nor done in clear water. So the count is a general swag at some fictitous number.

    So I am tracking or completely dumb????


    Please note I hate posting percentages as they can be a very biased number but it is the only way I can do it without filling pages with numbers and calculations. I have used the counts made available by F&G to post my findings and would like to see/hear from those who fish/use these areas to see if what I am calculating is true or not.
    You are missing the big picture. To evaluate production you need total return data not just escapement data. In fact if management was perfect the escapements into systems with goals would be constant regardless of run strength.

    So you need to get the brood tables for these stocks to see how production is tracking. This year the commercial harvest of Kasilof sockeye will probably be over 1 million fish - three times the goal. So you can see how just looking at escapements can be misleading.

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    Member TYNMON's Avatar
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    Default What?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    You are missing the big picture. To evaluate production you need total return data not just escapement data. In fact if management was perfect the escapements into systems with goals would be constant regardless of run strength.

    So you need to get the brood tables for these stocks to see how production is tracking. This year the commercial harvest of Kasilof sockeye will probably be over 1 million fish - three times the goal. So you can see how just looking at escapements can be misleading.
    So Nerka please teel us at what rate Kasilof sockeye and king are harvested relative to the Kenai fish in the terminal area? Larry Marsh admitted in spring of 2006 in a public forum that the King harvest was 8-10K and yet the late run escapement goal was estimated at 2000k Kings.

    Truth is Nerka you and your friends at Commecial Fish ADFG have no idea yeat to year and day to day what percentage the catch is destined for the Kasilof vrs the Kenai.

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    Default you just keep making yourself look bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by TYNMON View Post
    So Nerka please teel us at what rate Kasilof sockeye and king are harvested relative to the Kenai fish in the terminal area? Larry Marsh admitted in spring of 2006 in a public forum that the King harvest was 8-10K and yet the late run escapement goal was estimated at 2000k Kings.

    Truth is Nerka you and your friends at Commecial Fish ADFG have no idea yeat to year and day to day what percentage the catch is destined for the Kasilof vrs the Kenai.
    Tynmon, off the meds? The Kasilof terminal area is sampled for genetic stock idenfication. You can get the data from ADF&G on sockeye.

    Have no idea what the numbers you reference to Larry Marsh mean. The Kenai goal for chinook salmon is a range and does not start at 20,000. The 8,000 to 10,000 figure is a harvest for what?

    The comment about the meds is just a joke Tynmon but you really need to calm down relative to your dislike of commercial fishery biologists, it is not healthy.

  7. #7

    Default Southeastern Pinks

    Have any of you been following what has been happening with Southeastern Pink Salmon this year? To me, that is the real news in Alaska's Fisheries. By no means the only news but it really does have me holding my breaqth to see how it shakes out over the next few weeks. A buddy is seining down there for the first time and gave me a call a few weeks ago and in his message he said, to paraphrase "we're not seeing many pinks hopefully they still exist." I gave sort of a shocked chuckle to the "exist" comment but now people who have been fishing there all there life are saying this is the worst season they have EVER seen.

    Here's the inseason run timing chart:
    http://www.cf.adfg.state.ak.us/genin...ts/se_pink.php

    The red line is this year.

    I don't think a million pinks total have been harvested this entire season. Normally they are harvesting 10 million A WEEK this time of year.

    Needless to say, fishing has been mostly shut down.

    Pinks are a two year fish, meaning the 2006 class is the parent year. That run was not great but sufficient (12 million pinks caught in Southeastern)- in good year 50 or 60 million or more is not uncommon, just last year the catch was 45 million. So, since escapement was okay for the parent class what could be causing this?

    Also, looking at the numbers I'm wondering if pinks are going to come in strong in any of the other prominent pink fisheries in the state (PWS and Kodiak). Granted PWS hatchery fish came back but anyone have any word on how the wild runs are doing.

    An old timer I know keeps mentioning how the pinks didn't show up till the middle of August back in the 1940's one year........let's hope for a repeat.

    The next few weeks are the "peak" in southeast so hopefully they will come then at least in numbers enough to populate the streams and hopefully in numbers enough to fish on.

  8. #8
    Member Dupont Spinner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    You are missing the big picture. To evaluate production you need total return data not just escapement data. In fact if management was perfect the escapements into systems with goals would be constant regardless of run strength.

    So you need to get the brood tables for these stocks to see how production is tracking. This year the commercial harvest of Kasilof sockeye will probably be over 1 million fish - three times the goal. So you can see how just looking at escapements can be misleading.

    Ok so I missed the big picture.....NOT!!!!!!!

    Total return data is generated from known escapement totals for a particular fishery. This escapement total gives you the factors for brood stock. That is how they can generate a forcast for the fishery in the spring. (That's unless you believe they are out on the ocean counting the fish that have return tickets for the Kasilof River) Then using current in river data they then try and determine if their estimates were correct. If incorrectly estimated they extend or close a fishery. In the case of the Kasilof, F&G grossly underestimated the return based on their own historical data but now may have acted a little to hastily by not allowing the escapement to come closer to historical average. Which should make the forcast for 2012 lower then the 2008 forcast.

    I will include a fishery I am very fond of and that is the Su and Yetena river drainages for Kings. The forcast for the return on this fishery was suppose to be above average but what was not taken into account was the bad weather during the fall of the parent year. In my view they should have lowered their estimates till proven other wise. The fishery remained open both to commerical and sport fishing way to long. Deshka river barely made 30% of it's historical average. As a matter of fact, for those that have been around a while, the returns for 2008 to the Deshka river are worse then the mid 90's returns when the fishery was closed.

    You are right about F&G management not being perfect but I think it's because they do not use all the information at hand and then do the knee jerk reaction......It's just not about escapement but that is all they use to get their estimates for brood stock returns.

    My 2 cents>>>> If anyone cared I would have told you that Deshka was probably not going to be that good this year. Next year will be slightly better but it will not be until 2010/2011 before the Deshka gets back to historical average. With obiviously another dip in return between 2012 and 2014.

    This post was to generate input from others from around the state to see if they are seeing exactly what I am seeing. Thank You Bayrunner for your input. The only Pink return that has come to Valdez was the Hatchery return. The outer bays of eastern PWS that we normally fish with natural returns were completely devoid of any returning wild stock Pinks as of the 29th of July. Pinks may not be the best barometer to use as they are mostly an even year returning fish but on even years when they are not returning something happened.

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    Member TYNMON's Avatar
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    Default Definitly slander X-bio........

    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    Tynmon, off the meds? The Kasilof terminal area is sampled for genetic stock idenfication. You can get the data from ADF&G on sockeye.

    Have no idea what the numbers you reference to Larry Marsh mean. The Kenai goal for chinook salmon is a range and does not start at 20,000. The 8,000 to 10,000 figure is a harvest for what?

    The comment about the meds is just a joke Tynmon but you really need to calm down relative to your dislike of commercial fishery biologists, it is not healthy.
    Nerka,
    The BEG referenced was the Kasilof, Hello... Please try and keep up w/ the discussion... The numbers we are talking about to be clear are Terminal fishery king by-catch. Kasilof BEG is not known and catch composition in reference to returning natal stream. This years catch is apporching 5900 kings a very large number of fish considering they are bycatch and considering the very poor fishing in the Kenai.... As far as king sonar, not too reliable w/ so many sockeye, pinks, and early silvers.

    Beyond your reach is the point that any Kenai and Kasilof kings caught in the Kasilof terminal fishery is too many considering the limited data available on the genetic make up of those fish. Funny that catch apportionment is so unimportant to comm fish managers... Maybe, you can explain why this is?

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    Default do what you like DuPont

    DuPont, you asked a question which I answered with Kasilof. You used escapement in Kasilof as a measure and said numbers were down. I pointed out that is not correct. Kasilof is just the opposite - it is having a near record return.

    So what you want with your numbers but your comments are not defendable from a scientific viewpoint. Your first sentence in the response to my post shows you have no idea how a brood table is constructed. However, do what you want I just was trying to inform you on how to look at production models. If you want to follow this up read a text book by Hilborn and Walters called Quantitative Fisheries Stock Assessment - Choice, Dynamics, and Uncertainty.

    For the record I made the UCI sockeye forecasts for a number of years and there are a number of techniques to make a forecast. One way to estimate what may be still at sea is the return of an age class that is younger - using four year old fish to predict five year old fish for example.

    Hope this helps DuPont - when I said you missed the big picture it was reference to just using escapement data for your assessment. You also said the good returns were from hatchery fish - that also is not true for sockeye salmon -

    Good luck on your reading.

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