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Thread: Kenai sockeye update

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    Default Kenai sockeye update

    I thought I would start a new thread -

    Talked with ADF&G today and the Kenai sockeye run strength is in a wait and see mode.

    The OTF boat is not showing any fish to speak of and the drift fleet harvest was not strong last monday and no fish are moving to the beach. So the test will be Thursday's period. They will fish and see what the drift fleet does - if there is no indication of fish they will probably close the commercial fishery on Monday - what happens to the sport fishery and the personal use fishery is not known at this time.

    I just thought I would give an update so people can plan around it. Kasilof is still going great guns.

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    Thanks for the update, nerka.

    This year is looking more and more like 2006 with each passing day.

    Any word on potential restrictions to the Kenai flossery or PU fishery?
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    Default Another reminder of the first rule of fishery management

    The fish are in charge

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    I thought I would start a new thread -

    Talked with ADF&G today and the Kenai sockeye run strength is in a wait and see mode.

    The OTF boat is not showing any fish to speak of and the drift fleet harvest was not strong last monday and no fish are moving to the beach.
    Maybe no new sockeye entering the district, but it looks like the pinks have sure made a grand entrance:

    Drift pink catches:

    July 14 - 8.5K
    July 17 - 17.6K
    July 21 - 39.3K
    YTD = 69.5K

    Here they come.....

    Coho have also begun to show in decent numbers but catches aren't really ramping up just yet.

    Drift coho catches:

    July 14 - 13.2K
    July 17 - 20.2K
    July 21 - 12.6K
    YTD = 57.2K

    Great to see such a diversity of species showing up in the sockeye drift nets, eh?
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    Default Doc do not hijack this thread

    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    Maybe no new sockeye entering the district, but it looks like the pinks have sure made a grand entrance:

    Drift pink catches:

    July 14 - 8.5K
    July 17 - 17.6K
    July 21 - 39.3K
    YTD = 69.5K

    Here they come.....

    Coho have also begun to show in decent numbers but catches aren't really ramping up just yet.

    Drift coho catches:

    July 14 - 13.2K
    July 17 - 20.2K
    July 21 - 12.6K
    YTD = 57.2K

    Great to see such a diversity of species showing up in the sockeye drift nets, eh?
    Doc, do not hijack this thread by baiting with the last comment. Lets keep it factual -

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    How many a day should be hitting the river in this stage of the run? how bad are they off?

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    Quote Originally Posted by kgpcr View Post
    How many a day should be hitting the river in this stage of the run? how bad are they off?
    I don't think it's the inriver piece that managers are worried about. After all they are still ahead of 2006 and 2007... both of which made goal and then some. As nerka alluded to, the potential problem is in the uncertainty of how many (few) NEW fish are still moving into the district.

    The OTF boat is not showing any fish to speak of and the drift fleet harvest was not strong last monday and no fish are moving to the beach. So the test will be Thursday's period. They will fish and see what the drift fleet does - if there is no indication of fish they will probably close the commercial fishery on Monday
    Thursday's regular opener will be very revealing.

    ***

    Kasilof is still going great guns.
    YUP!

    Kasilof is only about 80K from the upper OEG. With the counter typically enumerating fish thru mid-Aug, there are still 23-24 days in the run. Escapements will have to be harvested down to no more than an average of 3500 a day to keep from exceeding the goal. Sounds almost like "mission impossible" given that some really big days have been seen in the last week of July and the first week of August in recent years.

    Nerka... if Kasilof is already trending over OEG and the Kenai still needs fish, which system has management priority? Does the Kasilof section shut down altogether? If all the beach nets are shut down to put fish into the Kenai, will the Kasilof terminal fishery will be opened to help mop up some of the surplus?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    Doc, do not hijack this thread by baiting with the last comment. Lets keep it factual -
    I thought it was legal to fish with bait in this thread........... Let me guess, only single, barbless, unbaited hooks allowed here. Sorry I couldn't resist

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    Default guess

    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    I.

    Nerka... if Kasilof is already trending over OEG and the Kenai still needs fish, which system has management priority? Does the Kasilof section shut down altogether? If all the beach nets are shut down to put fish into the Kenai, will the Kasilof terminal fishery will be opened to help mop up some of the surplus?
    I am still not writing Kenai off because I have been through this pattern before. There is a lull and then blam they slam you.

    But to answer doc's question. Reaching the lower end of the Kenai goal takes priority over the upper end of the Kasilof goal by regulation.

    If the set nets are shut down I would expect the terminal area to be opened. It was put in place for just this situation.

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    Default Enough allready

    How many hours of EO's have been issued this week in the Comm fishery here in CooK Inlet?

    Well, the nets have been in 24/7 since Monday and the Kenai is still in a "lets hope, wait, and see mode if enough sockeye will make into the river for escapement. Simply unbelievable. Why don't we just throw out the management plans and let ADF&G Comm Fish just decide when and what they want to do as that is what is happening at this point!

    I feel for ADF&G Sportfish as they are in a no win situation here. Probably should of seen some type of restrictions in both the Kenai king and sockeye sport fish regulations before now but how to do something like that when the Comm Fish guys are getting EO's?
    Last edited by iceblue; 07-24-2008 at 15:41. Reason: mis spelled issue

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    Default How many hours? Ask Old MacDonald?

    Quote Originally Posted by iceblue View Post
    How many hours of EO's have been issued this week in the Comm fishery here in CooK Inlet?

    Well, the nets have been in 24/7 since Monday and the Kenai is still in a "lets hope, wait, and see mode if enough sockeye will make into the river for escapement.
    How many?

    Well, chalk up four more as of two hours ago.... but it's only to help them get their gear (and any fish tangled in it) safely out of the water in stormy weather while the tide isn't running.

    http://csfish.adfg.state.ak.us/newsr...ies=400&num=33

    But I should make a noteworthy correction to your post iceblue.... nets have been deployed NON-stop since 12:01 am Sunday. When you count every hour but the final one tonight, that's 119 continuous hours of beach netting (plus an additional 16 hours for the drift fleet on Monday).

    I thought it was sort of intersting to see the beach EO's going to the SAME eleventh hour each day citing a need to get their gear out of the water in an orderly fashion at high slack. They must use a different tidebook than the rest of us because the last time I looked at mine, high water advances 45-60 minutes with each passing day .

    The managment plan says 51 add'l EO hours per week with a floating 24h early window and a fixed 36h weekend window. So let's review what's happened so far.

    Beyond the 24 regular hours, they've had 95 EO hrs this week. Gee, that means only negative 44 EO hours left in the week!

    24 hr window? What 24 hr window? Never happened.

    Makes you wonder if Master Fox is going to honor the weekend window after midnight?

    EO here, EO there....
    EO EO everywhere...
    E-eye
    E-eye
    O-O-O-O-O!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    I thought I would start a new thread -

    Talked with ADF&G today and the Kenai sockeye run strength is in a wait and see mode.

    The OTF boat is not showing any fish to speak of and the drift fleet harvest was not strong last monday and no fish are moving to the beach. So the test will be Thursday's period. They will fish and see what the drift fleet does - if there is no indication of fish they will probably close the commercial fishery on Monday - what happens to the sport fishery and the personal use fishery is not known at this time.

    I just thought I would give an update so people can plan around it. Kasilof is still going great guns.
    Nerka, thanks for passing on the information, I appreciate it. Here are a few comments that came to mind:

    So basically all the indicators (including their own index) are telling the managers that there are not a lot of sockeye in the inlet and the plan is to "wait and see" for another week. Is there a peer reviewed published scientific paper on the "wait and see" management theory?

    Is there any reasonable chance that many of the Kenai fish are being caught in Kasilof nets? Is there any inseason way (please don't tell me "size") to determine Kasilof reds vs. Kenai reds?

    As I have said in the past, the Kasilof will be the death of the kenai. I bet F&G had a "oh my" moment when yesterdays count came back at 10,000. I hope for their sake they get that August push (hopefully they just don't count pinks until August 15th or 20th), they need it.

    Also, I am predicting with todays winds the drift fleet will not have good catches and the wind will be blamed for them not catching fish, so they will give them an opener on Monday so they can see if there are (were) any fish in the inlet. Hopefully, there will be some fish left for the river.

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    You can complain about the EO's all you want, but...

    Sunday 29,398 Sockeye and 809 Kings were counted.
    Monday 32,015 Sockeye and 1257 Kings were counted.
    Tuesday 31,450 Sockeye and 1292 Kings were counted
    Wednesday 11,000 Sockeye and 1160 Kings were counted.

    We've pretty much met lower end BEG for Kings, and we have a ways to go yet. And sockeye are only tracking about 25% below the 18 year average, which could mean anything at this point, as we've seen it before.

    Sport fishing reports have been good, especially for Kings. Lots of nets up. I have managed my limit of sockeye on rod/reel each day through the EO's fairly easily.

    The recent EO extension is for safety, not to keep some Washington tourist from catching fish when he gets here. The Cook Inlet is frothing right now. Marine forecast says seas to 8 feet. People die in those conditions when forced to pull their nets during a ripping tide. Been there done that. The extension is justified, and it really bothers me that someone who isn't even in Alaska, or who has never commercial fished, would say it isn't.

    According to the Management Plan the run was to be re-evaluated around July 22. I believe Nerka originally said today (Thursday) would be an indicator with the drift fleet. I doubt weather allowed that. It is unclear to me what's out in the Inlet, and I believe it's unclear to F&G at this point. Nobody is Houdini with a crystal ball.

    The pessimistic speculation implying failed runs and over-commercial fishing is certainly nerve racking. Let the managers do their job folks... They're as good at it as anyone, including anyone from Washington.

  14. #14

    Default Commercials are getting soft!

    Well, I have live in Alaska for 35 years and have commerical fished for many of those. We never received an emergency order because the water was rough! That is the nature of the business. If it is not safe, don't go. The weather forcast has been published for some time. This storm was no surprise to anyone. Indeed, as I was travelling around Cunningham in my boat, there was a significant chop to the river... maybe they should give the guides an emergency opening extension past 6 pm to allow us to safely get our gear out of the water????


    Quote Originally Posted by Grampyfishes View Post
    You can complain about the EO's all you want, but...

    The recent EO extension is for safety, not to keep some Washington tourist from catching fish when he gets here. The Cook Inlet is frothing right now. Marine forecast says seas to 8 feet. People die in those conditions when forced to pull their nets during a ripping tide. Been there done that. The extension is justified, and it really bothers me that someone who isn't even in Alaska, or who has never commercial fished, would say it isn't.

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    Obviously you haven't been king fishing the last couple days Grampy.

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    Default tired of bull from two guides

    Quote Originally Posted by iceblue View Post
    How many hours of EO's have been issued this week in the Comm fishery here in CooK Inlet?

    Well, the nets have been in 24/7 since Monday and the Kenai is still in a "lets hope, wait, and see mode if enough sockeye will make into the river for escapement. Simply unbelievable. Why don't we just throw out the management plans and let ADF&G Comm Fish just decide when and what they want to do as that is what is happening at this point!

    I feel for ADF&G Sportfish as they are in a no win situation here. Probably should of seen some type of restrictions in both the Kenai king and sockeye sport fish regulations before now but how to do something like that when the Comm Fish guys are getting EO's?
    I tried to start a thread that just was giving factual data and here come two guides - iceblue and yukon with comments that are out of line and plain ignorant. Iceblue - if you read the management plans they are doing exactly what they should be doing at this stage. Read the plans iceblue. It says when Kasilof is strong and Kenai is below where they want to be the nets fish 1/2 mile - very straight forward. Also, the chinook salmon management plan is clear - unless the ADF&G projects they will not reach the minimum goal they commercial sockeye fishery fishes - what part do you do not get.

    Yukon - you are so full of misinformation that it is unbelievable. The Kasilof is a natural run and as such is managed as a natural run. What do you want to do - overharvest it so runs are not sustainable. Again, you may want to read the sustainable fish regulations and the state constitution. You may also want to do some homework on the natural run of Kasilof River. I posted on another thread why you were wrong on this point - guess you just do not want to know the truth but spew misinformation out.

    For the record, Kenai is always in a wait and see mode at this time of year. If you have your goal in hand now it means you will be over the goal by the end of the season. So Yukon and Iceblue - do your homework before you make statements about fish management. The chinook run is pushing over a 1000 a day into the river and you want to close or restrict? Also, sport fish biologists sit in the meetings and they have not expressed concern at this point relative to the chinook run.

    Now back to this thread if we can keep it on track - sorry for the diversion but wanted to clear up the bull.

    The fleet was blown off the water today which means that a closure is almost a sure thing on Monday. It would have helped for them to fish but the truth is that what is driving management actions is the escapement numbers. Until some fish push to the beach the fleet will wait. Note the set nets came out of the water as Kasilof escapement is slowing and the management plans have a 300k OEG for Kasilof. The fleet was not helped by not fishing today contrary to yukon's point.

    I talked to the managers and it will all depend on when fish move to the beach. If they come by Sunday and the river has 100k to 200k in it they will fish, if not they will not fish in Kenai but may use a restricted terminal fishery at Kasilof. Remember if Kenai is a bust the goal is 650-850k.

    Iceblue and Yukon - if you want to take on me or ADF&G start another thread. Leave this one alone for updates with data.

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    Nerka, I have no idea what you are talking about me and Kasilof and natural vs. un-natural fish. I don't believe I ever mentioned that. My point is that the Kasilof.....wait a minute, natural fish in the Kasilof? Yes there are a huge number of natural fish (I never said a thing about that) would you care to tell us how many smolt the Cook Inlet Agua Culture put into the system over the years????????

    Back to my point, you are the one who said all indicators pointed to there not being fish in the Inlet. My question is why are the managers in a "wait and see" mentality when all of THEIR indicators say there are not many sockeyes in the inlet??? Wasn't the 22nd when they were supposed to re-evalutate the run? Their meeting, not mine.

    My big point (and opinion) is that the Kasilof may be catching a lot of Kenai reds, while our run is low (possible restrictions coming) the Kasilof is netting basically 24/7. Is it idiotic of me to think that a good number of Kenai fish are being caught in the Kasilof nets??? (not a big stretch) You never answered my question how those fish can be differeniated between Kenai and kasilof fish.

    Also, I know you seem to have more time and contacts than I do but I would be willing to bet lunch that the entire fleet fishes on Monday. Just don't take my bet after you talk with the managers tomorrow.

    Yukon - you are so full of misinformation that it is unbelievable. The Kasilof is a natural run and as such is managed as a natural run. What do you want to do - overharvest it so runs are not sustainable. Again, you may want to read the sustainable fish regulations and the state constitution. You may also want to do some homework on the natural run of Kasilof River.

    I have no idea how what you typed even closely relates to what I posted and the questions.

    Nerka, I actually think F&G is doing a pretty good job this year, the haven't EO'd the Kenai district and have been keeping the Kasilof section close to the beach. In a normal year I think that is great. Being that the Kenai run is barely going to make escapement after the catch is taken out and the sockeye run is behind (possibly late) I think it would be a good year to utilize the terminal fishery and attempt to let some Kenai fish pass. If they do that and get some more fish in the Kenai river then they could move the EO's to the beach and maybe even EO the Kenai district. The river would get fish so the sport fishers and dipnetters would be happy and the commercial fishermen would get to fish more and make more money. Is that so wrong????

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    Default no fish in inlet does not mean no fish

    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    Nerka, I have no idea what you are talking about me and Kasilof and natural vs. un-natural fish. I don't believe I ever mentioned that. My point is that the Kasilof.....wait a minute, natural fish in the Kasilof? Yes there are a huge number of natural fish (I never said a thing about that) would you care to tell us how many smolt the Cook Inlet Agua Culture put into the system over the years????????

    Back to my point, you are the one who said all indicators pointed to there not being fish in the Inlet. My question is why are the managers in a "wait and see" mentality when all of THEIR indicators say there are not many sockeyes in the inlet??? Wasn't the 22nd when they were supposed to re-evalutate the run? Their meeting, not mine.

    My big point (and opinion) is that the Kasilof may be catching a lot of Kenai reds, while our run is low (possible restrictions coming) the Kasilof is netting basically 24/7. Is it idiotic of me to think that a good number of Kenai fish are being caught in the Kasilof nets??? (not a big stretch) You never answered my question how those fish can be differeniated between Kenai and kasilof fish.

    Also, I know you seem to have more time and contacts than I do but I would be willing to bet lunch that the entire fleet fishes on Monday. Just don't take my bet after you talk with the managers tomorrow.

    Yukon - you are so full of misinformation that it is unbelievable. The Kasilof is a natural run and as such is managed as a natural run. What do you want to do - overharvest it so runs are not sustainable. Again, you may want to read the sustainable fish regulations and the state constitution. You may also want to do some homework on the natural run of Kasilof River.

    I have no idea how what you typed even closely relates to what I posted and the questions.

    Nerka, I actually think F&G is doing a pretty good job this year, the haven't EO'd the Kenai district and have been keeping the Kasilof section close to the beach. In a normal year I think that is great. Being that the Kenai run is barely going to make escapement after the catch is taken out and the sockeye run is behind (possibly late) I think it would be a good year to utilize the terminal fishery and attempt to let some Kenai fish pass. If they do that and get some more fish in the Kenai river then they could move the EO's to the beach and maybe even EO the Kenai district. The river would get fish so the sport fishers and dipnetters would be happy and the commercial fishermen would get to fish more and make more money. Is that so wrong????
    No fish in the inlet does not mean no fish coming. What the indicators are saying is that we are in a lull - same thing happened in 2006 and 2007. If you remember 2006 the fleet was closed for over 10 days. That is why the OTF indexes are importaint at this time of year and this year the weather has knocked them out of the water today and the last couple of days. So while the indicators when I posted indicated no fish in the inlet at that time it does not mean fish are not coming in August or have moved into the inlet in these bad weather days. With strong SW winds forecasted for the next two days fish should move to the beach if they are there.

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    Thanks for the clarification, whe you said "no fish in the inlet" and that the indicators showed not many fish I mistakenly thought that meant there weren't many fish coming. I think you can see how I came to that conclusion, thus my opinion that of a conservative approach to management, just incase this is not a repeat of the last two years when they came in August.
    I guess that begs the question, does F&G have any indicators (plane surveys or anything) to show that more fish are coming into the inlet?

    I figured with the Northerly winds today fish would be blown away from the shore and not coming up the inlet, if we don't see a push with some SW winds then I would be very surprised if F&G let them fish on Monday.

    But, my gut tells me they will all fish on Monday, betcha lunch???

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    Default need some clarification

    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    Thanks for the clarification, whe you said "no fish in the inlet" and that the indicators showed not many fish I mistakenly thought that meant there weren't many fish coming. I think you can see how I came to that conclusion, thus my opinion that of a conservative approach to management, just incase this is not a repeat of the last two years when they came in August.
    I guess that begs the question, does F&G have any indicators (plane surveys or anything) to show that more fish are coming into the inlet?

    I figured with the Northerly winds today fish would be blown away from the shore and not coming up the inlet, if we don't see a push with some SW winds then I would be very surprised if F&G let them fish on Monday.

    But, my gut tells me they will all fish on Monday, betcha lunch???
    Some areas will fish on Monday - maybe the terminal area. If you mean the drift fleet in a normal period you are on for a lunch bet if no fish move to the beach or river by Sunday.

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