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Thread: Can't Find It

  1. #1
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    Default Can't Find It

    I applied for cow moose in DM406,407 & 410 (just like a lot of others) and I was trying to find on ADF&G's website historical application numbers for each permit; I know that only 90 permits go to those three areas but I wanted to gauge the odds a bit (just for curiosity's sake) by seeing historical app #'s vs. awarded permits... anyone else have a resource for this info?

    And yes, I'm chomping at the bit waiting for Thurs midnight to see!
    "He who is slow to anger is better than the mighty, and he who rules his spirit is better than he who takes a city." ~ Proverbs 16:32

  2. #2
    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    Do you still have a copy of the drawing supplement? They print the #'s on there from last year's application. Most of those valley cow permits are between 1-3%.

  3. #3

    Default Possible link

    Think Brian's advice is the best/easiest way to find the info--not sure if they keep the old ones archived or at least the data on the ADF&G site.

    One way to get it--but would take a bit of work on your part is by going thru the link below--would need to download the applicant file versus the winner file into excel and then divide the numbers out... at least I think that would get you the info you wanted.

    http://wildlife.alaska.gov/index.cfm...p.listing_main

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Back Country Robb View Post

    And yes, I'm chomping at the bit waiting for Thurs midnight to see!
    What happens at midnight Thursday?

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    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by anchskier View Post
    What happens at midnight Thursday?
    Unless Robb has some inside knowledge....the past few years the results have been posted sometime around the close of business (or a little while afterwards) on Friday. I'll be on my way to Homer by then, but I'll be stopping someplace with WiFi to check!

  6. #6
    Member jmg's Avatar
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    I've got the draw supplement here on my office floor still. 406 and 407 each had a 2 percent draw (406 = 41/1853; 407=60/3117) and 410 had a 1 percent draw (30/2025). Boy am I glad I put in for base hunts - I've got 3-5 times the chance to draw as you.

    The good news though is that you thought only 90 permits were given out. If its the same as last year, it would be 130 (407 said there were 40 available, but they gave out 41(?)). So things are looking up for you already.
    Never count your days, but rather, make all of your days count.

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    Moderator LuJon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmg View Post
    I've got the draw supplement here on my office floor still. 406 and 407 each had a 2 percent draw (406 = 41/1853; 407=60/3117) and 410 had a 1 percent draw (30/2025). Boy am I glad I put in for base hunts - I've got 3-5 times the chance to draw as you.

    The good news though is that you thought only 90 permits were given out. If its the same as last year, it would be 130 (407 said there were 40 available, but they gave out 41(?)). So things are looking up for you already.
    This sometimes happens when the last drawing winner is a party hunt. I have seen it happen in tight sheep drawing units as well, at least that is the info I came up with. We put in for 408 and 403 but don't expect to get either. If I do get the 403 I already picked out my cow As for the last years drawing odds check scroll down to the bottom of the online hunt supplement

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    Member jmg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LuJon View Post

    This sometimes happens when the last drawing winner is a party hunt. I have seen it happen in tight sheep drawing units as well, at least that is the info I came up with. We put in for 408 and 403 but don't expect to get either. If I do get the 403 I already picked out my cow As for the last years drawing odds check scroll down to the bottom of the online hunt supplement
    I thought it might have had to do with the military members overseas issue during the previous hunt, but don't remember when that went into place.
    Never count your days, but rather, make all of your days count.

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    Moderator LuJon's Avatar
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    I didn't call to verify but I was one that offered 3 permits and had 4 issued. 2 of the people were from some small town so i am drawing conlusions based on that. I am not sure how the deployment clause worked but I think it was the '06 data that I used to draw my assumption which I believe was before they instituted the permit carry over

  10. #10

    Default Clarification

    LuJon:
    Believe your theory on party permits pushing the number of issued permits above the available # listed in the supplement is incorrect.

    Take a look at the "How Does the Random Drawing Work?" section of the drawing supplement. It states that if a party permit is drawn when only 1 permit is left then that application will not be selected and they will randomly draw another application until they get an individual one.

    Might be the military rule for carry-over to the next year although I thought that clause just went thru last year so the results wouldn't be reflected until next year's supplement...Hmmm?

    The drawing rules for party permits caused me to stop putting in party permit applications for some of the highly coveted drawings with only a few permits to be drawn--didn't want to not receive the permit because of this rule--although you would never know you were that close to winning.

    It also gets more complicated when you talk about the Kodiak Bear permits and the 2nd degree kinship rule because they will only issue out 4 of them per season/8 per year--so that could be another way you could get "technically" drawn but not be issued the permit because they already had drawn their allotment of 2nd degree kinship permits.

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