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Thread: Anybody else smell bait?

  1. #1
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Member RMiller's Avatar
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    No but it makes me want a 35 horse for my boat.
    "You have given out too much reputation in the last 24 hours, try again later".

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    Member TYNMON's Avatar
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    Default Fishing is slow, but looking promising!






  4. #4

    Default Sad but true

    I "smelled bait" since the BOF changed the rules and lowered the indicator to open for bait. I am sad because this run is still very small, and I think very vulnerable for a number of reasons posted on the Management forum (won't rehash here). As I understand it, if it appears that the lower escapement goal of 5300 will be reached, bait will be allowed. That coupled with the larger slot, in my opinion is a recipe for disaster. The unfortunate thing is that it will be at least 2 board cycles before they will see the fruits of their labor.

    Sorry to be a cynic, but it hasn't been that long since we were down that road before.

    On the other hand, bait on the day the Killey decides to unload would be a very good thing.

  5. #5
    Member TYNMON's Avatar
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    Default According to ADFG...

    Quote Originally Posted by alaskanfishguides View Post
    I "smelled bait" since the BOF changed the rules and lowered the indicator to open for bait. I am sad because this run is still very small, and I think very vulnerable for a number of reasons posted on the Management forum (won't rehash here). As I understand it, if it appears that the lower escapement goal of 5300 will be reached, bait will be allowed. That coupled with the larger slot, in my opinion is a recipe for disaster. The unfortunate thing is that it will be at least 2 board cycles before they will see the fruits of their labor.

    Sorry to be a cynic, but it hasn't been that long since we were down that road before.

    On the other hand, bait on the day the Killey decides to unload would be a very good thing.
    This discussion at BOF was a heated one w/ ADFG, they indicated that even without the slot and bait open that only one out of the llast 20 years would we have not met the escapement.

    For sure the early run is small, however current conditions and limited effort are ensuring good escapements.

  6. #6

    Default Agreed

    Quote Originally Posted by TYNMON View Post
    This discussion at BOF was a heated one w/ ADFG, they indicated that even without the slot and bait open that only one out of the llast 20 years would we have not met the escapement.

    For sure the early run is small, however current conditions and limited effort are ensuring good escapements.
    I agree, however I am concerned with a few things. Many anglers who will not be able to upgrade to 4 stroke or dfi motors will likely fish the early run instead of the late run thus increasing effort and likely harvest, because they have been displaced from the river in July and from dipnetting as well (I don't disagree with this rule because it is what is best for the river). And then to increase the slot limit to 46". It has been my experience that the fish in this range are generally hens. All of this plus early bait, in my opinion, will greatly increase harvest of the already small early run.

    Now I am not saying that the sky is falling, however I remember the years that the early run was practically decimated to the point of total catch and release. It has taken 20 years to rebuild this run to the point that it is presently. And we have no one to blame for its earlier demise than ourselves. So, my point is that this early run, while making minimum escapement, needs to be handled with kid gloves. Liberalizing regulations are the last thing that it needs in my opinion.

  7. #7
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Based on a 30% exploitation, any projection of in-river return that exceeds 7.6K will exceed the "new and improved" threshold to allow bait.

    This one is a slam dunk already. The bait plan was written so leniently that you don't need anywhere close to an average run to get bait. Pretty interesting that just a few years ago, a projected escapement of 7.2 K would have triggered gloom/doom/panic and threatened the fishery with C&R rules at the very least, and more likely total shutdown. Now with only a measly 400 more fish, the run would be deemed healthy enough to liberalize the fishery with bait.

    And just for some add'l perspective.... a ho hum "average" run of 16.4K (20 yr avg) with an exploitation rate of 30% would yield an escapement of 11.5K.... more than DOUBLE the threshold for bait!

    ***

    As of y'day the sonar has already counted over 1000 kings. With considerably less than 10% of the run historically in-river by May 26... we should get the green light to thaw out those eggs and sardines any day now.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    Member TYNMON's Avatar
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    Default Rumor ont he street...

    I have heard that this will be the earliest bait opener in recent history.... That would suggest this weekend.......

  9. #9
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Default Chompin' at the bit....

    .... or should I say bait?


    Another 270 on May 27... YTD = 1322.

    Lookin' good.... REAL good!
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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  10. #10
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    With just under 10% of the early run historically in-river on May 27, this run is currently projecting out to about 13.8K based on a run-timing model.

    With the progressively increasing daily passage we've seen so far, the run is gradually approaching an "average" return with each passing day.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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  11. #11
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Another 353 fish on May 28... YTD = 1675.

    Right now the run is projecting out to 15.2K. You could theoretically prosecute a fishery with 60% exploitation (easily double what the fleet is actually capable of killing with bait and the slot) and still have a paper escapement of 6.1K... well above the new threshold for bait!

    Maybe throw the locals and the wounded vets a bone on Sunday? Ya think?
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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  12. #12
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Default It's official....

    Thaw out the eggs and sardines, boys.... it's hammer time!

    Imagine that.... Kenai goes to bait on Sunday June 1.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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  13. #13
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Here's the official EO issued by Robert Begich earlier today:

    http://www.sf.adfg.state.ak.us/state..._King_Bait.pdf

    Looks like ADFG has the in-river return on track to achieve about 15K +/- a confidence interval of 4K (11K to 19K).
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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  14. #14
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    Default Kenai Report

    Real-time on-the-water report from the lower river.

    Pretty good effort being expended out there. Quite the armada assembling for the incoming tide from the Pillars on down.

    My contact has been out all day and seen only one fish caught, but the day is still young. Maybe some biters will push in with the afternoon tide.

    I'll bet the morning bite will be a little different tomorrow... a bit of stink in the water should put those kings on the snap!
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  15. #15
    Member Hunt'N'Photos's Avatar
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    Well, I just got back from the wounded warrior fishing trip. It was pretty slow overall. I didnt see the exact numbers but I think out of 106 fishermen and women there were about 15-20 fish taken. I caught only one, it was over 49" and about 65lbs. Unfortunitely it had to be let loose after the guide pried me away from it! I have a few pics I will post in the next day or so after I recouperate!
    US Air Force - retired and Wildlife photographer

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