From the other thread:
For the record, the sonar only tallied 644 fish on the 14th.Originally Posted by Nerka
According to ADFG's latest Kenai summary #2, the exploitation is about 37% Ö. and thatís not counting H&R mortís and upriver harvest.
We have an escapement of roughly 5K as we speak. We need at least 12.7 K more to make the lower BEG. At an exploitation of 37% we will need at least 20.2 K more fish in the river to get that 12.7 K additional escapement. If the king sonar shuts down sometime in the first week of August due to the first wad of pinks (and itíll be a big wad if the gillnets arenít fishing much) we basically have 20 or so days of counting left for the season. Weíre gonna have to average at the very least 1000 fish a day at the sonar for the rest of the season. Anything short of that will leave us below goalÖ. unless of course something is done to curtail in-river exploitation.
Seems to me that it would be less than prudent to count on a minimum 1000/day every day for the rest of the season when the run has been significantly under-performing so far. Given the uncertainty, a precautionary approach should rule the day. Some sort of in-river restriction is probably warranted if we canít get at least 1000/day average over the next 5 days counts. Itíll just be that much more difficult to make up the deficit in the remaining days of the season. The big question is how restrictive do we need to be?