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Thread: Kenai Sockeye Counts

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    Default Kenai Sockeye Counts

    I am not 100% sure what escapement is this year for the Kenai, I have been hearing 750,000 as the magic number. I am also not exactly sure if that number is needed after the sportfish catch is taken out (usually around 240,000 fish). As of right now the escapment is right at 600,000 and we just dropped to under 10,000 per day. The run seems to be tailing off, I wonder if they are going to make escapement. Personally, I am very surprised they went to a limit of 6 fish when they did.
    Fishing has been really slow, actually the slowest I have ever seen it below skilak for this time of year. Maybe they are starting to show at the Russian.
    As for the Silvers they are non-existant in the river right now. Maybe in a week or two. Personal experience has shown me that about 2 or 3 days after the nets get pulled we get a good push of silvers. (not a knock on the comfish, just and observation)

    http://csfish.adfg.state.ak.us/mariner/uci/uciesc.php

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    Smile Why wonder? . . . give 'em a call . . .

    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    I am not 100% sure what escapement is this year for the Kenai, I have been hearing 750,000 as the magic number. I am also not exactly sure if that number is needed after the sportfish catch is taken out (usually around 240,000 fish). As of right now the escapment is right at 600,000 and we just dropped to under 10,000 per day. The run seems to be tailing off, I wonder if they are going to make escapement. Personally, I am very surprised they went to a limit of 6 fish when they did.

    Call our local ADF&G office and ask them whether they believe they're going to make escapement and why they went to six fish when they did. They are very helpful. . .


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    They are not open on Saturdays. And I hope they are too busy during the week to answer that question (although I know they would). I know they are busy people and always have a good reason for their actions, (if I remember the correctly the managment plan calls for the limit to be up'ed to 6 when the count gets around 500,000 fish).

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    Smile Fire away. . .

    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    They are not open on Saturdays. And I hope they are too busy during the week to answer that question (although I know they would). I know they are busy people and always have a good reason for their actions, (if I remember the correctly the managment plan calls for the limit to be up'ed to 6 when the count gets around 500,000 fish).

    Not at all. . . they're never too busy to answer your questions. That is, in fact, part of their job, so don't be bashful. Let us know what they tell you. . .

    (Don't miss Alan Borass' column in today's ADN)


  5. #5

    Default Report

    A commercial fisherman said to me that there were a lot of fish in the ocean waiting to come in. I hope he was right.

    Last year when everyone was panicking about the numbers I posted a report from one of my customers, he reported to me that there were "5 miles of fish" waiting to come in (he flew is private plane to Anchorage from Fairbanks). When I posted that on this forum, I got hammered by people saying that they were pinks, that he was not a fish and game person, no way to know about them what they were, whatever, but in the end a massive amount of reds came in in August I'm sure we all remember.

    I have been noticing the low number totals too though, hope lots more are coming.
    Hike faster. I hear banjo music.

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    Default

    I saw it, skimmed through it over breakfast, looks like the same stuff that has been beaten to death.

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    Thumbs up Public scrutiny. . .

    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    I saw it, skimmed through it over breakfast, looks like the same stuff that has been beaten to death.
    Wow, if you've heard that stuff before, then you've got better sources of information than I do. I thought Professor Borass really brought some new and significant aspects of, ah . . . influence peddling, cozy relationships, earmark money from Sen. Stevens, and more, which has been long hidden, into the light of public scrutiny. . . .

    Now that's the kind of information the public needs. . . Professor Borass is to be complimented as is the Anchorage Daily News for printing the piece.

    Hope you're having a good year. . .



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    Marcus, the stuff you quoted was "what-if" stuff, inference and accusations about influence peddling without proof. The arms deal stuff is a "senario" and not fact, although as he wrote it, he made it look as if were fact. He also wrote that the Classic is like any other derby in small town coastal Alaska, far from it. Events such as the Classic are common all across the country, it is probably pretty small time compared to others. The political game (Nationwide and Alaskawide) with or without the Classic, power, politics, and money are the way of the world, like it or not. Personally, I like the fact that Alaska has some power, without it our economy will be drastically affected.

    My year....well, king season was the worst I have seen in years (besides the stuff the paper wrote) the reds in the river are the worst I have seen for this time of year, and it is a waste of time fishing for Silvers right now. And it is raining, things are going great! LOL

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    Default Clarion article. . .

    Sorry to hear that. Here are some excerpts from today's Peninsula Clarion: (http://www.peninsulaclarion.com/stor...ors_3033.shtml)

    Coad said he did pretty good overall this year.

    "I averaged a couple of fish a day, so I had a lot of happy people," he said.

    Don Johnson, of Johnson Brothers guide service, said the season seemed about average to him.

    "It's hard to put it all together. Fish and Game thought it was better because of the fish numbers, but the fishing was pretty normal," he said.

    Spero Stefanopoulos, of California, holds up a 73-pound Kenai River king salmon caught July 13 while fishing with Leonard Ball of Leonard's Last Frontier Fishing Adventures.

    [Don] Johnson said those that did make into the boat did pretty well, and the season ended with a bang.


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    I too hit fish everyday, I only got skunked once, but overall there really wasn't hot fishing and the bites were few and far between. Every guide I have talked with says about the same thing. It was a rather lackluster season, the 3000+ king count days were really bad fishing, they didn't even fish like 1000 fish days. I don't know what more to say, lots of small fish throughout the season (usually there are some small ones early) and it seemed there were between 3 to 7 really good bites a day (rod slams or fish on, not some of those "phantom" bites I hear about) and on a good day you stuck a couple on a bad day you didn't. Those numbers are over a 9 hour trip.
    Looking at all the rods sticking out of boats throughout the day 1 to 2 fish was the norm, even Begich concurs with that. He figured there were around 500 kings being caught a day on the lower river, not too good when you count the rods.

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    I am not 100% sure what escapement is this year for the Kenai, I have been hearing 750,000 as the magic number. I am also not exactly sure if that number is needed after the sportfish catch is taken out (usually around 240,000 fish). As of right now the escapment is right at 600,000 and we just dropped to under 10,000 per day. The run seems to be tailing off, I wonder if they are going to make escapement. Personally, I am very surprised they went to a limit of 6 fish when they did.
    Fishing has been really slow, actually the slowest I have ever seen it below skilak for this time of year. Maybe they are starting to show at the Russian.
    As for the Silvers they are non-existant in the river right now. Maybe in a week or two. Personal experience has shown me that about 2 or 3 days after the nets get pulled we get a good push of silvers. (not a knock on the comfish, just and observation)

    http://csfish.adfg.state.ak.us/mariner/uci/uciesc.php

    The reasons for the increase in the bag limit were discussed earlier under this thread: http://forums.outdoorsdirectory.com/...ad.php?t=16317

    Now that the PU fishery is closed, it really depends on how much fish is yet to come and how many of those get harvested by the commercial fleet and the sport fisheries below the sonar. The setnet fleet has two regular periods next week and up to 51 hours of EO time before they are done on August 11. A question to ask at this time; is it prudent for any emergency order fishing time to be used until at least 750,000 sockeye have passed the sonar?

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    Default complicated answer

    The reason that the bag limit was increased was because sport fish division indicated they would make the 500,000 minimum goal (spawners) with an inriver goal of 650,000 (includes sport harvest above the sonar counter). At this point in the season there is not much more sport harvest to take place (August is slower) so if the sonar goal reaches 650,000 then the ADF&G has met the spawner goal of 500,000 to 1 million. I know that is confusing but they do not need to reach 750,000 to meet the spawning requirments, it depends on how good the sport fishery is and this year sport fish division projected 150,000 harvest.

    The second point is that with an August entry then ADF&G needs to fish and keep the escapement lower so they can absorb those August fish. That is why they fished all the eo's this week. They may not fish any next week or even close if they feel that they want more than 500,000 spawners.

    The bottom line is that the sport fish is being satisfied, the commercial fishery has harvested the run well, the PU fishery has closed, and ADF&G may just meet the spawning goals. Nice job for the season if they pull it off.

    Kasilof sockeye are just over the top and the status of the chinook run is being evaluated. However, they used the terminal fishery much less this year than last which is good.

    Relative to chinook and the counter downstream - we have been there and done that - it is really up to the guides and others to push for an independent review of the project. Even those in the know at ADF&G would like to see a different approach.

  13. #13

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    The inriver goal this year is 750,000 to 950,000, not 650,000. Nerka even said this himself in the previous thread referred to below. Has ADFG come out with a new assessment that says the run to the Kenai is less than 2 million? Also I haven't seen anywhere that sport fish division projected a harvest of 150,000.

    Looking at Table 18 of the following report, it appears that sport harvest above the sonar will probably be greater than 150,000.
    http://www.sf.adfg.state.ak.us/FedAidPDFs/fmr04-17.pdf

  14. #14

    Default Sick of Marcus?

    *edited*

    "Call Fish and Game and they will help"

    It is just unheard of to ask people that are on the river everyday other than ADF&G? Or to have a discussion. All answers have to come form Fish and Game.

    I am looking forward to the response to this one. Maybe I should make the call to see what it is going to be.

    blah. blah.
    Last edited by Brian M; 08-05-2007 at 00:05. Reason: negative personal comments

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    Default Talk to ADF&G

    Quote Originally Posted by akkona View Post
    The inriver goal this year is 750,000 to 950,000, not 650,000. Nerka even said this himself in the previous thread referred to below. Has ADFG come out with a new assessment that says the run to the Kenai is less than 2 million? Also I haven't seen anywhere that sport fish division projected a harvest of 150,000.

    Looking at Table 18 of the following report, it appears that sport harvest above the sonar will probably be greater than 150,000.
    http://www.sf.adfg.state.ak.us/FedAidPDFs/fmr04-17.pdf
    I find this kind of funny to say to call and talk to ADF&G given the comments about Marcus. However, that is what I did and the answer I gave is correct. While the management plans says to put 750,000 in for the in-river goal the point I was making was that spawning needs are being met and the sport fishery is basically over. The estimate of 150,000 by sport fish division was given in a staff meeting when they decided to go to a 6 fish bag limit. If they had indicated that they would have caught more than 150,000 fish then they could not go to a 6 fish bag limit since commercial fisheries could not assure them of 750,000 fish at that time.

    Sorry Akkona but that is what Sport Fish Division did to get the 6 fish bag limit. Commercial fisheries biologist do not make the projections on spawners above the sonar counter - the sport division biologist make that call after estimating the probable sport fish harvest. At this point putting more than 650,000 fish into the system means putting more fish into the escapement which may not be desireable. Remember one of the goals of the management plan is to spread the escapements in the reange of .5-1.0 million spawners. There has not been a low escapement in a number of years. Again, it appears to me ADF&G has done a fairly good job.

  16. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    The estimate of 150,000 by sport fish division was given in a staff meeting when they decided to go to a 6 fish bag limit. If they had indicated that they would have caught more than 150,000 fish then they could not go to a 6 fish bag limit since commercial fisheries could not assure them of 750,000 fish at that time.

    Sorry Akkona but that is what Sport Fish Division did to get the 6 fish bag limit. Commercial fisheries biologist do not make the projections on spawners above the sonar counter - the sport division biologist make that call after estimating the probable sport fish harvest. At this point putting more than 650,000 fish into the system means putting more fish into the escapement which may not be desireable. Remember one of the goals of the management plan is to spread the escapements in the reange of .5-1.0 million spawners. There has not been a low escapement in a number of years. Again, it appears to me ADF&G has done a fairly good job.
    If the commercial fisheries division could not assure that 750,000 would pass the sonar, why did they use all 51 hours of eo time last week? You know very well that the commercial fisheries biologists are the ones who determine run abundance to the inlet and to the Kenai. Sport fish uses the information supplied by comm fish. As of yesterday, commercial fisheries biologist were still saying 750,000 will be no problem.

    I am amazed that you talk about inriver goals being set as an allocation by the BOF, and then turn around and if the sport fisherman isn't going to harvest all 250,000 then the commercial fleet doesn't have to meet the inriver goal. That would be an allocative management action by the ADFG comm fish manager.

    Reading the justification on the eo, nothing is mentioned about a projected harvest. Without a creel survey, there is really no way to determine what the sport harvest of sockeye is during the season. The only way is to guess what the harvest would be based upon previous years. I think someone must be feeding you incorrect information, unless you are sitting in these staff meetings yourself.

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    AdFG did a perfect job managing the run this year, many kudos too them plus I'd bet we get a big slug any day now like the last couple augusts.
    I choose to fly fish, not because its easy, but because its hard.

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    Default projections have been made every year

    Akkona - the projections are based on past performance and sport fish division must make them to justify the 6 fish bag limit. The reason they fished all the hours this week is that the Offshore Test Fish is projecting Kenai River fish left in the district at 400,000 to 800,000. At 400,000 they could be short of the goal but not by much - at 800,000 they would be well over the goal. Therefore, since there has been three large escapements into the system the last three years and an August entry that has been atypical they went with fishing rather than take a chance on the large escapements again. The estimates of harvest change each day as the fishery takes place and run projections change so one day one can think one thing and have it change a day latter. That is the problem of UCI fishery management.

    I think people should realize that this is not a precise science. In a total run of over 5 million fish they will be slightly over the goal on Kasilof, may be just under the goal on Kenai and under on Yentna - in total they will be short less than 100,000 fish out of 5 million. That is very good management from my perspective. It is much better than putting in over 1 million extra fish into the system the last three years where they were not even close to the goal.

    Akkona, what I think is your concern is that you put a priority on the in-river goal but in point of fact ADF&G has a priority for the OEG which is number of spawners. Of course there are allocative implications during inseason management. Sport Fish Division made an allocation decision when they projected 150,000 fish harvest above the sonar count to get to the 6 fish bag limit. As you noted they do not have inseason data to make this projection so how could they be assured that they would meet the OEG - if the sport harvest is higher than they failed. I do not fault them for this just as you should not fault the commercial fish managers for making reasonable estimates. Finally, the season is not over and when commercial fishing stops the escapements could increase and they could meet the 750,000 fish in-river goal. That would mean they meet every goal but the most important one is the number of spawners. They have done that if the sport fish estimates are correct.

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    Unhappy Bio-babble. . . .

    Yikes. . . will someone explain what all this bio-babble is about? Is there a point here?

    What is the problem? Is there one? akkona, do you work for ADF&G? Are you retired from ADF&G? What point are you trying to make? . .

    What I think I'm reading is powder_monkey and Nerka defending ADF&G's management of the current season in the face of yukon's and akkona's aspersions on the actions and decisions of our managers. Is that it?

    Help. . . .


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    Thumbs down Blah. . . blah. . . ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lunker_Lurker View Post
    *edited*

    "Call Fish and Game and they will help"

    It is just unheard of to ask people that are on the river everyday other than ADF&G? Or to have a discussion. All answers have to come form Fish and Game.

    I am looking forward to the response to this one. Maybe I should make the call to see what it is going to be.

    blah. blah.
    Your complaint is a distortion and misrepresentation of what I said. I did not in any way say or imply that all answers must come from ADF&G or that there cannot be discussion. .

    What I did say is that before anyone criticizes, questions, or casts aspersions on ADF&G's management decisions, they should have the common decency to call ADF&G for an explanation. . .


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