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Thread: 2020 Draw Apps

  1. #81
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    in a state with some many great HT hunts, I donít see what the big deal would be. It wonít stop you from filling the freezer annually, but it would give you a legit chance at the hard to draw tags. Being involved in both systems, Iíve got points stacked up in Wyoming and Colorado and will soon be able to hit those, I donít think either are perfect, but looking at it from the perspective of not drawing any tags an average of 4 out of 5 years in this random draw, what harm would it be to stack points, and hunt harvest tags for a few years before going on your next draw hunt??

    Quote Originally Posted by DucksAndDogs View Post
    Points systems suck.

  2. #82
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    Random always works out better. Case in point - I know several people personally who have drawn a TMA tag. I know one person indirectly who has ever drawn a Missouri Breaks bighorn tag in MT.

    I mean I hear what youíre saying, but once theyíre established, then folks with no points have a much harder time drawing tags. Not only that, theyíre nearly impossible to abolish because then you have an entire army of folks with 20+ points who will be up in arms.

    I guess itís mainly because I donít think that just because youíve been applying for years without drawing, youíre entitled to more of a chance than someone who hasnít been applying for years. And I feel this way BECAUSE of the great HT opportunities available. There are so many opportunities for so many incredible hunts already, I donít mind having even odds with anyone else in the state on the harder to draw tags. Want bonus points? Put all six into that one tag and youíll probably draw it before too long.

    Itís all public land, itís a shared resource, just leave it alone and let Lady Luck do her thing...

  3. #83
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    ya I hear ya. Random draw is nearly impossible to abolish because of the same stubborn army haha. Iíve been putting in all 6 of my ďbonus tagsĒ as long as itís been allowed, still havenít drawn. In fact, thatís the question I asked in the beginning of this Thread... are guys applying all 6 in one or shotgun application? Now I realize Iím putting in for 1%-3% tags generally, but **** it sure doesnít give a guy much hope when the only thing he has going is his luck haha. I mostly just like the aspect of the point system rewarding organization in regards to a planning a hunt years in advance, taking things seriously, and not just applying because it only costs $5 and itís easy. Those are the drawbacks of our random draw. Not to say itís any better on the other side of the grass, it just sounds intriguing to me.

    Quote Originally Posted by DucksAndDogs View Post
    Random always works out better. Case in point - I know several people personally who have drawn a TMA tag. I know one person indirectly who has ever drawn a Missouri Breaks bighorn tag in MT.

    I mean I hear what youíre saying, but once theyíre established, then folks with no points have a much harder time drawing tags. Not only that, theyíre nearly impossible to abolish because then you have an entire army of folks with 20+ points who will be up in arms.

    I guess itís mainly because I donít think that just because youíve been applying for years without drawing, youíre entitled to more of a chance than someone who hasnít been applying for years. And I feel this way BECAUSE of the great HT opportunities available. There are so many opportunities for so many incredible hunts already, I donít mind having even odds with anyone else in the state on the harder to draw tags. Want bonus points? Put all six into that one tag and youíll probably draw it before too long.

    Itís all public land, itís a shared resource, just leave it alone and let Lady Luck do her thing...

  4. #84

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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    ya this stuff sucks. I have a now former friend who drew a valley cow tag this year. It was his first year applying, under my direction, and he drew dm407. He was pumped and I had high hopes of half a moose hitting my freezer before I got going on my HT bull hunts. After efforts all summer to get him shooting, and after plans had been scheduled to do this hunt, he flakes. I guess your just always going to run into a certain number of people who will draw these 3% tags and not hunt them. Super annoying part of the random draw. This would be one thing generally avoided by a bonus points system.
    It may not make people feel any better, but if you work the math, the odds of getting drawn do not improve if people who ultimately would not end up hunting a permit did not apply in the first place. Here is an example of what I mean: Say there is a hunt where ADF&G has decided they want 25 moose taken in a unit. They know based on historical numbers that only 50% of those who actually hunt are successful. They also know that 50 % of those who apply do not even hunt the permit if they get it. That means they need to give out 100 permits to expect to get 25 animals taken (100 permits, 50 not hunted for, 50% success for the other 50 permits = 25 animals taken). Say 1000 people applied making it a 10% chance of being drawn (assuming everyone put in the same number of applications to simplify things). Now, if the 50% of people who were not going to hunt in the first place did not apply, you would have only 500 applicants. But since we know that 50% of those who hunt are successful, then they could only give out 50 permits to hope to get 25 animals taken, leaving it right back at the 10% chance of getting drawn.

    It is always frustrating when you see permits you would have wanted get "wasted", but that is all built into the system. It really wouldn't help increase our odds of drawing if those people were not in the draw in the first place.

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by DucksAndDogs View Post
    Random always works out better. Case in point - I know several people personally who have drawn a TMA tag. I know one person indirectly who has ever drawn a Missouri Breaks bighorn tag in MT.

    I mean I hear what youíre saying, but once theyíre established, then folks with no points have a much harder time drawing tags. Not only that, theyíre nearly impossible to abolish because then you have an entire army of folks with 20+ points who will be up in arms.

    I guess itís mainly because I donít think that just because youíve been applying for years without drawing, youíre entitled to more of a chance than someone who hasnít been applying for years. And I feel this way BECAUSE of the great HT opportunities available. There are so many opportunities for so many incredible hunts already, I donít mind having even odds with anyone else in the state on the harder to draw tags. Want bonus points? Put all six into that one tag and youíll probably draw it before too long.

    Itís all public land, itís a shared resource, just leave it alone and let Lady Luck do her thing...
    Mr Ducks ,

    Agreed ....itís a lottery .... just because I buy a powerball every week doesnít mean my odds should get better if I never win.
    If you put in every year , even if you didnít draw you have already had more chances than the first year joe.


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  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by roughneck6883 View Post
    Mr Ducks ,

    Agreed ....itís a lottery .... just because I buy a powerball every week doesnít mean my odds should get better if I never win.
    If you put in every year , even if you didnít draw you have already had more chances than the first year joe.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    And some would argue that simply being a resident in Alaska grants opportunities far greater than any draw tags available in the rest of the country...

  7. #87
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    good points here. Iím very aware of this fact, having poured over all the harvest statistics on the tags Iím applying for (and a lot of others for no good reason haha) itís just the unfortunate reality of this hunt structure. Having done the same research on tags drawn in point based systems, ya donít see that same level of non-participation. Thatís probably the only perk to not having random draws. I like our system, I just always tend to think of alternatives when Iím feeling down on my luck. Maybe this is the year! Haha

    Quote Originally Posted by anchskier View Post
    It may not make people feel any better, but if you work the math, the odds of getting drawn do not improve if people who ultimately would not end up hunting a permit did not apply in the first place. Here is an example of what I mean: Say there is a hunt where ADF&G has decided they want 25 moose taken in a unit. They know based on historical numbers that only 50% of those who actually hunt are successful. They also know that 50 % of those who apply do not even hunt the permit if they get it. That means they need to give out 100 permits to expect to get 25 animals taken (100 permits, 50 not hunted for, 50% success for the other 50 permits = 25 animals taken). Say 1000 people applied making it a 10% chance of being drawn (assuming everyone put in the same number of applications to simplify things). Now, if the 50% of people who were not going to hunt in the first place did not apply, you would have only 500 applicants. But since we know that 50% of those who hunt are successful, then they could only give out 50 permits to hope to get 25 animals taken, leaving it right back at the 10% chance of getting drawn.

    It is always frustrating when you see permits you would have wanted get "wasted", but that is all built into the system. It really wouldn't help increase our odds of drawing if those people were not in the draw in the first place.

  8. #88
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    Ph uck the point system.. it would take a 10yr old kid 10yrs to accumulate enough points to draw a TMA tag and that's being very optimistic. In some places like Colorado it takes upwards of 20 points to draw a a coveted elk tag.. so let's say 20 points to draw at TMA tag.. sure we have HT but, late comers to the draw let's say you are 30 when you move up here might take you until you hit 50 to draw that permit. Alaska draw system while not perfect is the best system going..

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by 323 View Post
    Ph uck the point system.. it would take a 10yr old kid 10yrs to accumulate enough points to draw a TMA tag and that's being very optimistic. In some places like Colorado it takes upwards of 20 points to draw a a coveted elk tag.. so let's say 20 points to draw at TMA tag.. sure we have HT but, late comers to the draw let's say you are 30 when you move up here might take you until you hit 50 to draw that permit. Alaska draw system while not perfect is the best system going..
    Iím with you.

    What we need is a point system for the mega millions lotto, then the winner would always be 99 years old.


    I have yet to begin to procrastinate

  10. #90
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    Or, on the other side of the coin, you apply to the random draw for 30 years hoping to pull a TMA, and never get it, because itís random. I guess the way to look at it would be that the random draw system is the conservative approach, were the random draw is less consistent and better to some then others. Neither are perfect, Iím thankful for my HT kills, otherwise I could sell all my freezers waiting for the random draw to pay out haha

    Quote Originally Posted by 323 View Post
    Ph uck the point system.. it would take a 10yr old kid 10yrs to accumulate enough points to draw a TMA tag and that's being very optimistic. In some places like Colorado it takes upwards of 20 points to draw a a coveted elk tag.. so let's say 20 points to draw at TMA tag.. sure we have HT but, late comers to the draw let's say you are 30 when you move up here might take you until you hit 50 to draw that permit. Alaska draw system while not perfect is the best system going..

  11. #91

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    Quote Originally Posted by 323 View Post
    Ph uck the point system.. it would take a 10yr old kid 10yrs to accumulate enough points to draw a TMA tag and that's being very optimistic. In some places like Colorado it takes upwards of 20 points to draw a a coveted elk tag.. so let's say 20 points to draw at TMA tag.. sure we have HT but, late comers to the draw let's say you are 30 when you move up here might take you until you hit 50 to draw that permit. Alaska draw system while not perfect is the best system going..
    What your post fails to take into account is that it takes upwards of 20 points to draw a coveted elk tag TODAY, meaning you had to start applying 20 years ago for that number to apply to your expectations of a tag. The way point creep works, if one were to start applying today for that same elk tag it may actually take hundreds of years before they are "guaranteed" that tag. Seriously, certain tags in Utah would take upwards of 400 years before statistically you would be guaranteed a tag in the bonus points pool.

    I still maintain points in several states to "not lose my place" just in case I ever get lucky enough to outlive the masses of people with more points than I. Implementing a point system only provides benefits to those that start applying in the first few years of the point system and leaves the rest of everyone else in no better a position (and often in a worse one) than had it remained a random draw. A point system is just a way to improve your short term advantage by mortgaging that of your children and all those who were unlucky enough to start applying after you.

  12. #92
    Member DucksAndDogs's Avatar
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    Iíll reiterate, point systems suck.

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    Or, on the other side of the coin, you apply to the random draw for 30 years hoping to pull a TMA, and never get it, because itís random. I guess the way to look at it would be that the random draw system is the conservative approach, were the random draw is less consistent and better to some then others. Neither are perfect, Iím thankful for my HT kills, otherwise I could sell all my freezers waiting for the random draw to pay out haha

    There are some point system tags out there that canít be drawn in 30 years. Iíd rather take my chances with a random system that way I always feel like Iím in it. 323 started a thread called Annual Donation and thatís a joke used in AK every year at tag time. Fact is, if you want some of these coveted tags in other states with points systems, it is literally a donation, every year, for 20+ years, no questions asked. That same ďdonationĒ in Alaska COULD get you an incredible tag the first year.

    I see pros and cons to each, but at the end of the day, the only people who like points systems are people who are close to drawing. There are tags in this country that Iíd love to hunt and statistically Iíll never be able to hunt them. Iíll take 1% over 0% any day of the week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DucksAndDogs View Post
    There are some point system tags out there that canít be drawn in 30 years. Iíd rather take my chances with a random system that way I always feel like Iím in it. 323 started a thread called Annual Donation and thatís a joke used in AK every year at tag time. Fact is, if you want some of these coveted tags in other states with points systems, it is literally a donation, every year, for 20+ years, no questions asked. That same ďdonationĒ in Alaska COULD get you an incredible tag the first year.

    I see pros and cons to each, but at the end of the day, the only people who like points systems are people who are close to drawing. There are tags in this country that Iíd love to hunt and statistically Iíll never be able to hunt them. Iíll take 1% over 0% any day of the week.

    I'm glad point system in Alaska has died down, I was for it when I first got here but it was lower 48 mentality but see what states have gone to milk more money from hunters far as points. Alaska needs to stay away from the points system. In Colorado they have all the stats on how many points you need to draw a tag. I remember when oregon went to the draw on the easy side. The unit I lived in it only took 1 point to draw a deer tag so first couple yrs you knew every other yr you draw a tag. Then it went to every couple yrs you draw a tag, don't get me going on bonus points where's our spend x amount more money to buy bonus points. Me and the family been extremely drawing tags. The only folks who want a points system are the ones who haven't drawn a tag.

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    I mean just to steer this thread back in the right direction, the original questions I posted had to do with folks strategy regarding spreading your chances out over multiple tags, or applying all 6 into on tag? Also, what percentage of people apply their spouses into the draw?

    Quote Originally Posted by DucksAndDogs View Post
    Iíll reiterate, point systems suck.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    I mean just to steer this thread back in the right direction, the original questions I posted had to do with folks strategy regarding spreading your chances out over multiple tags, or applying all 6 into on tag? Also, what percentage of people apply their spouses into the draw?
    depends on the hunt, I put in for dc485 6 times. Moose tags 2 for 766, 2 for 414 and 2 for 560. Like I said depends on the hunt. I'm pretty sure I will draw 766 next yr. the other tags not so sure..

  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    I mean just to steer this thread back in the right direction, the original questions I posted had to do with folks strategy regarding spreading your chances out over multiple tags, or applying all 6 into on tag? Also, what percentage of people apply their spouses into the draw?
    I wouldn't say that I apply my spouse into the draw - she applies because she hunts. So yes, as a household we have another person applying, but it's not because I push it. She's just another hunter - and she has had pretty good luck in the draw over the years, so that's an added benefit!

    Usually all 6 into one draw unless I can't decide between two, in which case I'll split my applications.

  18. #98
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    you can only win 1 moose hunt so i am not sure why people would spread there chances out instead of putting all 6 into one hunt to have the best odds.
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  19. #99

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwackkillncrew View Post
    you can only win 1 moose hunt so i am not sure why people would spread there chances out instead of putting all 6 into one hunt to have the best odds.
    There are hints I would really like to get, but the odds are very low. I will sometimes put some entries into that kind of hunt, then toss one or two into a hunt that isnít quite as desirable, but has much higher odds just to hedge my bets a bit.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwackkillncrew View Post
    you can only win 1 moose hunt so i am not sure why people would spread there chances out instead of putting all 6 into one hunt to have the best odds.
    Here is why I normally mix it up. I will put 3-4 into a Cow tag (the Fairbanks Management area tag) because it has a higher draw chance then other tags, I then put the other tags toward a hunt I would really want to do. my odds of drawing are higher then if I put in 6 times for the harder to draw tag but I still have a chance for the "better" tag.

    I sometimes do that with the other tags but normally I just put in 6 times for the hunt I want to to do most.

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