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Thread: 2020 Draw Apps

  1. #141
    Member DucksAndDogs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alaska1986 View Post
    Yea, that was kinda a **** show. Guys finding out they got the TMA in July and scrambling to get flights and get time off. Out of staters drawing Kodiak bear one or two months before it opened, trying to get a guide, flights, etc. February provides amble time to get time off requests in, get flights, and what not.


    Did nonresidents not used to have to have a guide/client agreement figured out before they applied? Crazy if thatís the case...

  2. #142
    Member 4merguide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DucksAndDogs View Post
    Did nonresidents not used to have to have a guide/client agreement figured out before they applied? Crazy if thatís the case...
    Nope....the NR guide/client agreement was non existent back in the day.
    Sheep hunting...... the pain goes away, but the stupidity remains...!!!

  3. #143
    Member 7mmstalker's Avatar
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    The three of us bought as many tickets as we could for the critters we will definitely be hunting.
    It's no secret that the state is trying to get money from any place they can. A.D.F.&G. is the one place I will pay fees to with no regret.
    That being said, the end result of the recent increase in entries available for purchase will likely tilt the odds in favor of those that have more $ to spend. Drawing tags are definitely a gamble, and a well designed game should encourage/reward more buying, right?
    Like others have said, we do enjoy some really great OTC hunt opportunities, sometimes the hard way, but nonetheless worthy opportunities.

  4. #144
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    I just spent 30$ on DC485 this year, I wonder what my odds will be of drawing that bad boy?

  5. #145
    Member ak_cowboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iyouktug View Post
    I just spent 30$ on DC485 this year, I wonder what my odds will be of drawing that bad boy?
    2000 vs 400 permits make it about 8% chance if the same number of people apply as last year

  6. #146
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    Right on, well hopefully I got a 48% chance then.

  7. #147
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    Apparently you havenít been tuning in long enough to see the math scholars correct you on that math. 6 x 8% doesnít give you 48%, but rather 6 chances at 8%. Good luck understanding that haha

    Quote Originally Posted by iyouktug View Post
    Right on, well hopefully I got a 48% chance then.

  8. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    Apparently you havenít been tuning in long enough to see the math scholars correct you on that math. 6 x 8% doesnít give you 48%, but rather 6 chances at 8%. Good luck understanding that haha
    As long as everyone else doesn't draw it before he does he has a 100% chance, the percentages go down after that though...
    ďI would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned.Ē Physicist ― Richard Feynman


  9. #149

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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    Apparently you havenít been tuning in long enough to see the math scholars correct you on that math. 6 x 8% doesnít give you 48%, but rather 6 chances at 8%. Good luck understanding that haha
    You take the chance of not drawing on any given chance (in this case ~92%) and find the xth exponent (x= # of chances put into that drawing) of that number to determine your overall chance of not drawing. So here, take 0.92^6 to get 0.606, meaning you have a 60.6% chance of not drawing it. Or ~40% chance of drawing it. However, as others have said, the true probability of drawing is higher due to othersí chances being removed from the pool if one of their chances successfully draws.


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  10. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    Apparently you havenít been tuning in long enough to see the math scholars correct you on that math. 6 x 8% doesnít give you 48%, but rather 6 chances at 8%. Good luck understanding that haha
    Yeah, youíre definitely stating a valid point Jonath! Hopefully it works out to my liking in the end and I get a nice flip of the coin at 50% odds!

  11. #151
    Member kwackkillncrew's Avatar
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    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" - Michael Scott

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    I will never be a "Prostaffer" its not that I am not good enough
    but its because I refuse to pimp products for free.

  12. #152
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    Truer words have never been said haha

    Quote Originally Posted by kwackkillncrew View Post
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" - Michael Scott

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