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Thread: 2020 Draw Apps

  1. #41
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    this is the discussion I was hoping for. I have questions every year about how I analyze all this junk, and it seems everyone else operates on different tactics haha. Bottom line is you get more % chance if you apply 6X, but no one knows how much.

    show me a 30% draw rate tag in which someone put in 6X and didn’t draw. I have a hard time believing that. I think your just looking on the empty side of the glass. Sure it’s “theoretically” possible, but surely not likely to come up empty handed there.

    Quote Originally Posted by anchskier View Post
    It doesn't work that way actually. Each of your entries would have a 30% chance of being drawn by itself, but it do not in any way guarantee that you will get drawn. Consider a hunt that has 100 entries (6 of those are yours). If that hunt is giving out 30 permits, then theoretically an entry would have a 30% chance of being drawn. Your 6 entries could just as easily all be in the batch of 70 entries that don't get drawn. You definitely have a lot better chance of being drawn if you have 6 entries in there, but it would not be a guaranteed draw. The only way that it would be guaranteed would be if there were only 30 individuals who submitted the 100 total entries. If there were a bunch of people who only put in 1 or 2 entries each, then you could have 50+ people trying for 30 permits.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    this is the discussion I was hoping for. I have questions every year about how I analyze all this junk, and it seems everyone else operates on different tactics haha. Bottom line is you get more % chance if you apply 6X, but no one knows how much.

    show me a 30% draw rate tag in which someone put in 6X and didn’t draw. I have a hard time believing that. I think your just looking on the empty side of the glass. Sure it’s “theoretically” possible, but surely not likely to come up empty handed there.
    It's just math, not voodoo. Each entry in this scenario has a 30% chance of being drawn and a 70% chance of not being drawn. Each entry is completely independent of the other. So you would have 6 chances to win the permit with 30% odds for each entry. In other words, compared to a person with only one chance you have 5 additional times to not be drawn 70% of the time. Each entry still only has a 30% chance of being drawn, mathematically nothing changes for each entry, but each entry gives you another chance to beat the odds or confirm the odds. Each entry has its own odds at being drawn, and each individual has his or her own chance of their entries being drawn. They are two separate things with different odds.

    The way the system is set up each entry is assigned its own random number, the lowest numbers are assigned a temporary permit. If a person put in more than one entry that was assigned a lower number their other entries are removed, if they we entered into another drawing for the same species and won that permit that they assigned a higher priority to then their entries will be removed. Party tags add their own twist to the equation since it is only one entry but counts for 2 permits. Once all the extra entries have been removed then we get to the actual number of entries that are used to award the permit, which can and will in most cases be different than the number of original entries. There are so many variables involved that we will never know the exact odds on most of these permits. Hunts like DM845 being the exception, if you want to win a tag enter that one and you will get it as long as no more than 7 other people put in for it.
    “I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned.” Physicist ― Richard Feynman


  3. #43
    Member tlingitwarrior's Avatar
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    I think the biggest thing people can do is research the hunts they put in for. Know the costs of doing these hunts and the physical and logistical challenges of them. I know fish and game takes into consideration the amount of successful draw winners that won’t hunt the tags, but it still robs people who have done their homework from potentially getting a tag. Take for instance the Copper River bison tag. This is can be an extremely challenging hunt from a logistical standpoint, and it is some of the toughest country around. Throw in the $1,500 Ahtna access fee (not needed but greatly increases success odds), and you have a tough, expensive hunt. Does everyone know the costs of a Nunivak Ox hunt prior to putting their name in the kitty? Please do some diligence.
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  4. #44
    Member 4merguide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlingitwarrior View Post
    I think the biggest thing people can do is research the hunts they put in for. Know the costs of doing these hunts and the physical and logistical challenges of them. I know fish and game takes into consideration the amount of successful draw winners that won’t hunt the tags, but it still robs people who have done their homework from potentially getting a tag. Take for instance the Copper River bison tag. This is can be an extremely challenging hunt from a logistical standpoint, and it is some of the toughest country around. Throw in the $1,500 Ahtna access fee (not needed but greatly increases success odds), and you have a tough, expensive hunt. Does everyone know the costs of a Nunivak Ox hunt prior to putting their name in the kitty? Please do some diligence.
    Well said and I totally agree!
    Sheep hunting...... the pain goes away, but the stupidity remains...!!!

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