1. Originally Posted by a2thak
Sorry, was being sarcastic. The calculation for the percentage is pretty difficult actually. Let's say 1000 applications put in for 10 permits. That's easy math. For each application your chance is 1%. However if you put in 6 applications, it is not 6%, as previously stated. If you do the math the odds work out to 5.84%.
Yep, except that it gets even more complicated when you factor in that each person could put anything from 1-6 entries in and then once one of their entries is picked, their other entries are taken out of the pool meaning the remaining entries get more of a chance. I honestly don't think there is any fixed percentage that can be calculated that would be 100% accurate, but how you are doing it is at least in the ballpark and "close enough" for anything people are trying to do.

2. Originally Posted by greenmachine
And you have to hunt it or lose your license next year
Ha! Now that would be cool but me thinks kinda hard to enforce.....lol

3. haha ya I wish that was the case. Seems ridiculous for people to draw tags and not even try. Especially on road accessible hunts. It would sure encourage a little more research on tag applications rather then applying for tags with higher draw rates. There is a reason they are easier to draw!

Originally Posted by 4merguide
Ha! Now that would be cool but me thinks kinda hard to enforce.....lol

4. Originally Posted by anchskier
Yep, except that it gets even more complicated when you factor in that each person could put anything from 1-6 entries in and then once one of their entries is picked, their other entries are taken out of the pool meaning the remaining entries get more of a chance. I honestly don't think there is any fixed percentage that can be calculated that would be 100% accurate, but how you are doing it is at least in the ballpark and "close enough" for anything people are trying to do.
So apparently I'm in the group of people who can't do math.

I think the interesting part about how the draw works is that all entries are assigned a random number, and then they figure out all the particulars. Each entry is ranked from low to high and depending on the number of permits to be awarded and the number of entries and entrants a person who initially didn't win a permit based upon their random number can still win a permit as individual entries are removed from the pool. So the odds of an individual entry being drawn isn't exactly set in stone, instead each drawing has a range of percentages for the individual entry and the individual entrant. Each entry has it's own odds, but if an individual entrant has an entry drawn than his/her remaining entries are removed from the pool with the next lowest number (and each subsequent number) moving up, which changes the odds for the rest of the entries and this changes the odds for each individual as well. Even though the drawing has already happened the odds change from the first tag drawn to the last tag drawn, however since the numbers have already been assigned it's not like each tag is a new drawing unto itself. Using a range of percentages or an average based upon number of entries/entrants/permits is as close as we can get.

It really is a fools errand to try and figure out the exact percentage of each drawing, especially since we do not have all the information. Thankfully we have harvest tags and don't need to rely on a drawing or points based system.

Thankfully all of our donations are matched with Pittman-Robertson funds.

5. First year putting in for both of my kids as well as my wife and I, as the youngest will be 10 by next fall. Ouch. Thankfully we're only starting him out with moose and caribou draws, so that's only an extra \$60. Sure adds up, though! Still, we can't win if we don't apply, so let's just say that we've got lots of reasons to look forward to February!

6. Originally Posted by Brian M
First year putting in for both of my kids as well as my wife and I, as the youngest will be 10 by next fall. Ouch. Thankfully we're only starting him out with moose and caribou draws, so that's only an extra \$60. Sure adds up, though! Still, we can't win if we don't apply, so let's just say that we've got lots of reasons to look forward to February!
Welcome to the party Brian! Last 4 years I've had myself, my three sons, daughter and the GF in for the draw. The way I see it, I turn around and give the state back my PF dividend. Couldn't be happier about it! Great thing is, the kids have had lights out luck. Daughter drew Bison her first time. #2 son drew Nunivak ox on 2nd try at age 12, youngest boy has drawn 2 Kodiak bear tags and TMA sheep all before turning 14. This is entirely due to the great state of Alaska having a draw system and not some ridiculous point system. All point systems do is punish young hunters. Best of luck to you and family.

7. Originally Posted by tlingitwarrior
Welcome to the party Brian! Last 4 years I've had myself, my three sons, daughter and the GF in for the draw. The way I see it, I turn around and give the state back my PF dividend. Couldn't be happier about it! Great thing is, the kids have had lights out luck. Daughter drew Bison her first time. #2 son drew Nunivak ox on 2nd try at age 12, youngest boy has drawn 2 Kodiak bear tags and TMA sheep all before turning 14. This is entirely due to the great state of Alaska having a draw system and not some ridiculous point system. All point systems do is punish young hunters. Best of luck to you and family.
Oh, I’m with you! The cost is getting steeper, but it’s still an incredible bargain and I’m certainly not complaining about having more names in the hat. My oldest drew a caribou and moose tag his first year but struck out the second - can’t complain about that! And yes, I’m SO thankful we have a truly random draw. Looking forward to February!

8. Yup, random is nice. I hope to hunt a Missouri breaks bighorn for my 98th birthday! 22 years and counting, only 50 more to go!

I have yet to begin to procrastinate

9. Originally Posted by coop22250
Yup, random is nice. I hope to hunt a Missouri breaks bighorn for my 98th birthday! 22 years and counting, only 50 more to go!
Random has its drawbacks, but I'll always prefer it to a points system. I've drawn zero goat tags in ~30 years of applying while my wife has drawn twice in 14 years and my brother five or six times in those same 30 years. Does that make the system unfair? Of course not - that's how randomness works. At the same time, I've had more than my share of luck with sheep, and I also drew a bison tag 15 years ago, which on its own makes me lucky enough for a lifetime.

I'd love to hunt bighorn sheep someday, but I didn't start accruing points 25 years ago, so it's almost hard to bother starting. I'll never understand residents who would want a points system. Unless you're OK with only having the chance to hunt an area once in your lifetime along with completely disenfranchising new and young hunters, I see no reason to prefer points over a random draw.

10. Originally Posted by tlingitwarrior
I think the biggest thing people can do is research the hunts they put in for. Know the costs of doing these hunts and the physical and logistical challenges of them. I know fish and game takes into consideration the amount of successful draw winners that wonÂ’t hunt the tags, but it still robs people who have done their homework from potentially getting a tag. Take for instance the Copper River bison tag. This is can be an extremely challenging hunt from a logistical standpoint, and it is some of the toughest country around. Throw in the \$1,500 Ahtna access fee (not needed but greatly increases success odds), and you have a tough, expensive hunt. Does everyone know the costs of a Nunivak Ox hunt prior to putting their name in the kitty? Please do some diligence.
You nailed it as far as I'm concerned! An acquaintance I know put in for a Kodiak Bear tag for the first time ever applying, and got it. I've applied for the same tag for years and still haven' got it. Anyways, I was happy for him until 3 months before the hunt he decides "yah, I'm not going." I asked him why. His response was, "I can't afford the flights and the other related logistics"...
Man, you wanna talk about jumping in his "you know what" with both feet. I was pissed. You know how many people who WERE READY to go if they had got that same tag? I know I was!!
I know also guys who I work with who have dropped well over 6K, pushing up towards 10K for their Nunivak muskox hunts.
Again, do the homework well before applying for certain tags. The numbers may shock quite a few..

11. Originally Posted by Brian M
Random has its drawbacks, but I'll always prefer it to a points system. I've drawn zero goat tags in ~30 years of applying while my wife has drawn twice in 14 years and my brother five or six times in those same 30 years. Does that make the system unfair? Of course not - that's how randomness works. At the same time, I've had more than my share of luck with sheep, and I also drew a bison tag 15 years ago, which on its own makes me lucky enough for a lifetime.

I'd love to hunt bighorn sheep someday, but I didn't start accruing points 25 years ago, so it's almost hard to bother starting. I'll never understand residents who would want a points system. Unless you're OK with only having the chance to hunt an area once in your lifetime along with completely disenfranchising new and young hunters, I see no reason to prefer points over a random draw.
Percentage wise you almost always have better odds buying a raffle than the bighorns I put in for. I buy some of those each year as well. Probably won’t pay off, but gotta try!

I have yet to begin to procrastinate

12. Originally Posted by coop22250
Percentage wise you almost always have better odds buying a raffle than the bighorns I put in for. I buy some of those each year as well. Probably won’t pay off, but gotta try!

I have yet to begin to procrastinate
Yeah, I've thought about that. Might start throwing a few hundred at super tags each year. Heck, can't win if you don't play, right? After all, I'm going to win a 180 in the Airman's Association airplane raffle next year, so I might as well win a bighorn tag while I'm at it!

13. Originally Posted by swampdonkey
You nailed it as far as I'm concerned! An acquaintance I know put in for a Kodiak Bear tag for the first time ever applying, and got it. I've applied for the same tag for years and still haven' got it. Anyways, I was happy for him until 3 months before the hunt he decides "yah, I'm not going." I asked him why. His response was, "I can't afford the flights and the other related logistics"...
Man, you wanna talk about jumping in his "you know what" with both feet. I was pissed. You know how many people who WERE READY to go if they had got that same tag? I know I was!!
I know also guys who I work with who have dropped well over 6K, pushing up towards 10K for their Nunivak muskox hunts.
Again, do the homework well before applying for certain tags. The numbers may shock quite a few..
It can be frustrating for sure at first. But you always have to remember. If it wasn't for those people who don't end up hunting the permits, there wouldn't be as many given out in the first place. ADF&G factors in historical averages of people who won't hunt and those who wont be successful when deciding how many permits to give out. If they knew that everyone who got a permit would hunt it, they would have to give out a lot less or risk overharvest.

14. Originally Posted by anchskier
It can be frustrating for sure at first. But you always have to remember. If it wasn't for those people who don't end up hunting the permits, there wouldn't be as many given out in the first place. ADF&G factors in historical averages of people who won't hunt and those who wont be successful when deciding how many permits to give out. If they knew that everyone who got a permit would hunt it, they would have to give out a lot less or risk overharvest.
At least we don't have all the greenpeace bunny huggers putting in for permits so they can save an animals life. Back before we were required to buy the license first, that was a real problem.

15. To the Point Haters:
There's a huge difference between preference points (which is what is being inferred here, I think) and bonus points. I hate preference points, but love bonus points. Bonus points really don't give you much advantage overall, it just gives you an "extra ball" in the drawing for each year you apply. Even if it doesn't make a statistical dent in my odds, I feel as if my money spent (and winters endured) is at least going to give me a slight advantage in future years over someone who just moved here. In my eyes, it just gives someone who's invested more \$\$ and time in Alaska to give them a bit better odds than someone who's just here for a year or two. On the other hand, I would rather they did nothing than add preference--so, I'm still happy with the "do-nothing" option.

16. Originally Posted by anchskier
It can be frustrating for sure at first. But you always have to remember. If it wasn't for those people who don't end up hunting the permits, there wouldn't be as many given out in the first place. ADF&G factors in historical averages of people who won't hunt and those who wont be successful when deciding how many permits to give out. If they knew that everyone who got a permit would hunt it, they would have to give out a lot less or risk overharvest.
Trust me, I understand ADFG's take on the odds of hunting, not hunting, filling or not filling tags and their percentages, and I do appreciate your response...
My point was that the acquaintance pretty much went in blind without doing any of the homework regarding cost factors and logistics for certain hunts.
After he got drawn for the Kodiak hunt, he THEN did his homework and realized, oh sh*\$, I can't afford that, and then bagged like it was no big deal.
I didn't get drawn for that same hunt, but if I had, I'd have gone because I wanted it and had done my legwork.
I won't even put in for certain permits until I've spoke to several people who have "been there, done it" and I KNOW to the best of my ability what I'm getting myself into costwise...

17. Originally Posted by swampdonkey
Trust me, I understand ADFG's take on the odds of hunting, not hunting, filling or not filling tags and their percentages, and I do appreciate your response...
My point was that the acquaintance pretty much went in blind without doing any of the homework regarding cost factors and logistics for certain hunts.
After he got drawn for the Kodiak hunt, he THEN did his homework and realized, oh sh*\$, I can't afford that, and then bagged like it was no big deal.
I didn't get drawn for that same hunt, but if I had, I'd have gone because I wanted it and had done my legwork.
I won't even put in for certain permits until I've spoke to several people who have "been there, done it" and I KNOW to the best of my ability what I'm getting myself into costwise...
I hear ya.... I had a friend do the same thing. Only thing different was that he could afford it, just decided it wasn't what he wanted to do cause he had drawn other permits that were more appealing. That's my main beef, guys that are made-o-money so they throw the \$\$\$ at anything and everything with really NO intention to hunt everything they may draw. Meanwhile, that guy is potentially taking away a tag from the guy that knows exactly what he wants, only spends a few bucks here and there IN HOPES that he draws the tag for the ones that he knows he can, and will, make happen. That's what I don't like. I know what anchskier is saying, but it's still a hard pill to swallow at times.

18. ya this stuff sucks. I have a now former friend who drew a valley cow tag this year. It was his first year applying, under my direction, and he drew dm407. He was pumped and I had high hopes of half a moose hitting my freezer before I got going on my HT bull hunts. After efforts all summer to get him shooting, and after plans had been scheduled to do this hunt, he flakes. I guess your just always going to run into a certain number of people who will draw these 3% tags and not hunt them. Super annoying part of the random draw. This would be one thing generally avoided by a bonus points system.

Originally Posted by 4merguide
I hear ya.... I had a friend do the same thing. Only thing different was that he could afford it, just decided it wasn't what he wanted to do cause he had drawn other permits that were more appealing. That's my main beef, guys that are made-o-money so they throw the \$\$\$ at anything and everything with really NO intention to hunt everything they may draw. Meanwhile, that guy is potentially taking away a tag from the guy that knows exactly what he wants, only spends a few bucks here and there IN HOPES that he draws the tag for the ones that he knows he can, and will, make happen. That's what I don't like. I know what anchskier is saying, but it's still a hard pill to swallow at times.

19. Points systems suck.

20. Originally Posted by Ken R
To the Point Haters:
There's a huge difference between preference points (which is what is being inferred here, I think) and bonus points. I hate preference points, but love bonus points. Bonus points really don't give you much advantage overall, it just gives you an "extra ball" in the drawing for each year you apply. Even if it doesn't make a statistical dent in my odds, I feel as if my money spent (and winters endured) is at least going to give me a slight advantage in future years over someone who just moved here. In my eyes, it just gives someone who's invested more \$\$ and time in Alaska to give them a bit better odds than someone who's just here for a year or two. On the other hand, I would rather they did nothing than add preference--so, I'm still happy with the "do-nothing" option.
Having come from a state that has both preference points and bonus points--they are both terrible, and especially since most started with "bonus" points in addition to giving you extra chances for each point also carve out a percentage of the tags to go to the bonus pint holders with the most points (which is essentially a hybrid bonus point-preference point system).

Random draw all the way!

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