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Thread: 2020 Draw Apps

  1. #41
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    this is the discussion I was hoping for. I have questions every year about how I analyze all this junk, and it seems everyone else operates on different tactics haha. Bottom line is you get more % chance if you apply 6X, but no one knows how much.

    show me a 30% draw rate tag in which someone put in 6X and didnít draw. I have a hard time believing that. I think your just looking on the empty side of the glass. Sure itís ďtheoreticallyĒ possible, but surely not likely to come up empty handed there.

    Quote Originally Posted by anchskier View Post
    It doesn't work that way actually. Each of your entries would have a 30% chance of being drawn by itself, but it do not in any way guarantee that you will get drawn. Consider a hunt that has 100 entries (6 of those are yours). If that hunt is giving out 30 permits, then theoretically an entry would have a 30% chance of being drawn. Your 6 entries could just as easily all be in the batch of 70 entries that don't get drawn. You definitely have a lot better chance of being drawn if you have 6 entries in there, but it would not be a guaranteed draw. The only way that it would be guaranteed would be if there were only 30 individuals who submitted the 100 total entries. If there were a bunch of people who only put in 1 or 2 entries each, then you could have 50+ people trying for 30 permits.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    this is the discussion I was hoping for. I have questions every year about how I analyze all this junk, and it seems everyone else operates on different tactics haha. Bottom line is you get more % chance if you apply 6X, but no one knows how much.

    show me a 30% draw rate tag in which someone put in 6X and didnít draw. I have a hard time believing that. I think your just looking on the empty side of the glass. Sure itís ďtheoreticallyĒ possible, but surely not likely to come up empty handed there.
    It's just math, not voodoo. Each entry in this scenario has a 30% chance of being drawn and a 70% chance of not being drawn. Each entry is completely independent of the other. So you would have 6 chances to win the permit with 30% odds for each entry. In other words, compared to a person with only one chance you have 5 additional times to not be drawn 70% of the time. Each entry still only has a 30% chance of being drawn, mathematically nothing changes for each entry, but each entry gives you another chance to beat the odds or confirm the odds. Each entry has its own odds at being drawn, and each individual has his or her own chance of their entries being drawn. They are two separate things with different odds.

    The way the system is set up each entry is assigned its own random number, the lowest numbers are assigned a temporary permit. If a person put in more than one entry that was assigned a lower number their other entries are removed, if they we entered into another drawing for the same species and won that permit that they assigned a higher priority to then their entries will be removed. Party tags add their own twist to the equation since it is only one entry but counts for 2 permits. Once all the extra entries have been removed then we get to the actual number of entries that are used to award the permit, which can and will in most cases be different than the number of original entries. There are so many variables involved that we will never know the exact odds on most of these permits. Hunts like DM845 being the exception, if you want to win a tag enter that one and you will get it as long as no more than 7 other people put in for it.
    ďI would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned.Ē Physicist ― Richard Feynman


  3. #43
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    I think the biggest thing people can do is research the hunts they put in for. Know the costs of doing these hunts and the physical and logistical challenges of them. I know fish and game takes into consideration the amount of successful draw winners that wonít hunt the tags, but it still robs people who have done their homework from potentially getting a tag. Take for instance the Copper River bison tag. This is can be an extremely challenging hunt from a logistical standpoint, and it is some of the toughest country around. Throw in the $1,500 Ahtna access fee (not needed but greatly increases success odds), and you have a tough, expensive hunt. Does everyone know the costs of a Nunivak Ox hunt prior to putting their name in the kitty? Please do some diligence.
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  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlingitwarrior View Post
    I think the biggest thing people can do is research the hunts they put in for. Know the costs of doing these hunts and the physical and logistical challenges of them. I know fish and game takes into consideration the amount of successful draw winners that wonít hunt the tags, but it still robs people who have done their homework from potentially getting a tag. Take for instance the Copper River bison tag. This is can be an extremely challenging hunt from a logistical standpoint, and it is some of the toughest country around. Throw in the $1,500 Ahtna access fee (not needed but greatly increases success odds), and you have a tough, expensive hunt. Does everyone know the costs of a Nunivak Ox hunt prior to putting their name in the kitty? Please do some diligence.
    Well said and I totally agree!
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  5. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post

    show me a 30% draw rate tag in which someone put in 6X and didnít draw. I have a hard time believing that. I think your just looking on the empty side of the glass. Sure itís ďtheoreticallyĒ possible, but surely not likely to come up empty handed there.
    I'm not trying to say whether it has or will happen, but more that statistically, it CAN happen. Most likely, it has and will happen again, but there is no way to know for certain with the data that is published. Just for fun, I pulled up last year's DE713 hunt that showed a 24% success rate. Theoretically, with your original idea, 6 entries should have guaranteed someone a permit. There were 143 people who did not draw that permit. Many of those used one or more of their 6 application entries on other elk permits, but there are a decent number of them that show that they only applied for this one permit. My guess would be that at least a couple of those used all 6 entries for that permit, but I can't say that for fact since that data is not available. Again, I am just explaining that it is possible, whether or not it is probable.

  6. #46
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    It's basically like rolling a dice six times and figuring out the odds of rolling a 6 at least once. Every roll of the dice has a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a particular number, but rolling it six times does not guarantee that you'll roll each number once. You've got the same odds on the sixth roll as you did on the first. Your likelihood of rolling a six increases if you roll it more times, but each roll is its own event.

  7. #47
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    I can get behind that logic. So to sum it up, most of you are dumping all 6 into tags you want, or are you spreading them out over various tags?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian M View Post
    It's basically like rolling a dice six times and figuring out the odds of rolling a 6 at least once. Every roll of the dice has a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a particular number, but rolling it six times does not guarantee that you'll roll each number once. You've got the same odds on the sixth roll as you did on the first. Your likelihood of rolling a six increases if you roll it more times, but each roll is its own event.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonath View Post
    I can get behind that logic. So to sum it up, most of you are dumping all 6 into tags you want, or are you spreading them out over various tags?
    I usually put all six into the tag I really want, but if I have a hard time deciding, sometimes I'll spread them out 3 and 3. I liked the wild uncertainty of the old system, but it's nice being able to really prioritize if you have a particular tag that is at the top of your list.

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    Default 2020 Draw Apps

    Yup keep spreading out every 6 choices...the odds are the same regardless according to half the forum. Thatís your best chance

  11. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by a2thak View Post
    Yup keep spreading out every 6 choices...the odds are the same regardless according to half the forum. Thatís your best chance
    Whoís saying that? Looks to me like pretty much everyone has said you do have better odds the more entries you put into any one hunt, you just canít add the individual odds up to get your overall odds. It just isnít how statistics work. What people are saying is that each individual entry has the same odds, but if you have multiple entries in a single hunt, you get more shots at it, so better overall odds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by anchskier View Post
    Whoís saying that? Looks to me like pretty much everyone has said you do have better odds the more entries you put into any one hunt, you just canít add the individual odds up to get your overall odds. It just isnít how statistics work. What people are saying is that each individual entry has the same odds, but if you have multiple entries in a single hunt, you get more shots at it, so better overall odds.
    What I've learned from this thread is that there are some people who don't know how to do math and there are some people who don't know how to read, there are also some people who don't know how to do math and don't know how to read.

    Pick a hunt because you want to do it, not because the odds are a few percentage points better. The majority of draws are low percentage, if a guy just wants a draw tag there are a couple guarantees to be had.
    ďI would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned.Ē Physicist ― Richard Feynman


  13. #53
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    they should have a mystery hunt where its road accessible and with in a certain driving distance of a specific town they choose (DM3ANC, drawing mystery with in 3 hours of anchorage). You dont know what animal its going to be for or where exactly it will be. I think half of the time people dont put in research for what they put in for any ways so this would make it real exciting.
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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwackkillncrew View Post
    they should have a mystery hunt where its road accessible and with in a certain driving distance of a specific town they choose (DM3ANC, drawing mystery with in 3 hours of anchorage). You dont know what animal its going to be for or where exactly it will be. I think half of the time people dont put in research for what they put in for any ways so this would make it real exciting.
    It should also be a surprise method of take, archery, black powder, hand gun, rifle. Give me a good excuse to go shopping.......


    I have yet to begin to procrastinate

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    Quote Originally Posted by anchskier View Post
    Whoís saying that? Looks to me like pretty much everyone has said you do have better odds the more entries you put into any one hunt, you just canít add the individual odds up to get your overall odds. It just isnít how statistics work. What people are saying is that each individual entry has the same odds, but if you have multiple entries in a single hunt, you get more shots at it, so better overall odds.
    Sorry, was being sarcastic. The calculation for the percentage is pretty difficult actually. Let's say 1000 applications put in for 10 permits. That's easy math. For each application your chance is 1%. However if you put in 6 applications, it is not 6%, as previously stated. If you do the math the odds work out to 5.84%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by coop22250 View Post
    It should also be a surprise method of take, archery, black powder, hand gun, rifle. Give me a good excuse to go shopping.......


    I have yet to begin to procrastinate

    And you have to hunt it or lose your license next year

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by greenmachine View Post
    And you have to hunt it or lose your license next year
    Now that would be exciting! Iím in!


    I have yet to begin to procrastinate

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwackkillncrew View Post
    they should have a mystery hunt where its road accessible and with in a certain driving distance of a specific town they choose (DM3ANC, drawing mystery with in 3 hours of anchorage). You dont know what animal its going to be for or where exactly it will be. I think half of the time people dont put in research for what they put in for any ways so this would make it real exciting.
    I think there should be a goat and sheep permit hunt specifically for old folks where you can get choppered in and out. There are a pile of units with extremely limited, or no airplane access. Likely don't get hunted much.
    Hunt Ethically. Respect the Environment.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmokeRoss View Post
    I think there should be a goat and sheep permit hunt specifically for old folks where you can get choppered in and out. There are a pile of units with extremely limited, or no airplane access. Likely don't get hunted much.
    I would like to see some options for older or disabled people. Many states have laws allowing shooting from parked vehicles for disabled.

    One of the neatest things Iíve seen was an older couple around 80 years old on the Denali Hwy, they were walking in towards this large herd of caribou off the road a few years back when most of the herd was close to the road. He was holding her hand helping her up the trail. I watched them while cleaning ours from 500 yards away, told my buddy if they got one I was going down to help them get it to the truck.

    I sure hope Iím able to get out at that age, I was pretty impressed.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by coop22250 View Post
    It should also be a surprise method of take, archery, black powder, hand gun, rifle. Give me a good excuse to go shopping.......


    I have yet to begin to procrastinate
    I like where this is going
    I will never be a "Prostaffer" its not that I am not good enough
    but its because I refuse to pimp products for free.

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