The only thing better than draw tag season is seeing all the tin hat nut jobs talk about how the system is rigged!
The only thing better than draw tag season is seeing all the tin hat nut jobs talk about how the system is rigged!
In 1492 Native Americans discovered Columbus lost at sea
_________________________________________________
If I come across as an arrogant, know-it-all jerk, it's because I am
Of course it's rigged, but I ain't gonna complain 'cause once you figure it out there tags just roll right in!
Did they change the moose for 14? I thought last year there was something that said only 3 of the 6 could go for antlersss or (either sex) hunts, but I can't find it in the supplement.
Brian is correct. That change went into effect last year. I just checked the hunt supplement from last year and it said that it was "NEW" and that you could now put in for up to 6 bull moose applications. It wasn't anything unique to unit 14 either, it was statewide. Before, you were limited to a max of 3 bull moose hunt entries, so if you wanted to use all 6 of your entries, at least 3 had to be for antlerless hunts.
I went 13 years with nothing then went three years in a row drawing tags and now nothing for the last several years. even with my not so good draw odds I'd still not be in favor of any kind of bonus point system. I do believe that for the most part its all random but I have seen a few cases that make me believe that there are some instances where some chosen few people (usually F&G employees or affiliated somehow) have artificial extreme good luck year after year.
But its still fun to wait for the results to come out and I will continue to hope for the tag of my dreams. No different than going to Vegas and dumping money into a machine hoping for a big pay day
Is it wrong to assume that if a guy looks at the draw odds in the back of this years supplement, those figures are “permit applications”, not individuals. So if a guy puts in all 6 choices on any given tag, you can multiply those odds by 6?
For example, if there is a 2% chance, and you put in 6 times. Each "time" has 2% chance of being selected. You don't have a 12% chance of getting the tag. If that was true, if there was a 30% chance and you put in 6 times (Example unit 13 non resident moose) if would be a 100% draw.
Consider the following. You are last person to put in. There are 100 already in. If you put in one choice, your odds are 1 in 101, or just under 1%. If you put in 6 choices, you are 6 in 106, or under 6%. Now this assumes there is just 1 tag available. Complicated, bottom line is your chances jump significantly with more entries.
In 1492 Native Americans discovered Columbus lost at sea
_________________________________________________
If I come across as an arrogant, know-it-all jerk, it's because I am
that’s the part I was having a hard time quantifying. For example, DC485 had 26491 applications this year for the 400 tags, giving a 1.5% draw rate. Each time you put in you have 1.5%, but what do you have when your all in with 6 applications? if the number of applications stays the same next year and we get the estimated 4000 tags rather then 400, that’s 15% draw rate per application.
And I’m pretty sure the math checks out. If you had a 30% crack at getting drawn, and you have 6 chances at getting pulled, your gonna get the tag every time. 30% either illustrates very low participation, or extremely high number of tags being awarded, both of which are highly influenced by a 6X applicant.
There wouldn't be any guaranteed tag in that situation. If there are 26,491 applicants for 4,000 tags, 22,491 people won't draw. You also can't just multiply your draw percentage by 6 if you put in 6 times--those 26,491 applicants could also be filing additional applications. If all 26,491 applicants put in 6 times then your draw percentage would remain the same. They would only increase if the 26,491 applicants only put in once, but I don't think that's likely either.
Each of those six entries carries the same odds, each individual does not have the same odds as the sum of the number of entries especially since some individuals do not put all six entries into the same draw. You cannot simply add the odds for the number of entries an individual has submitted to get the individuals combined odds, you do however get more chances at the same odds.
“I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned.” Physicist ― Richard Feynman
You will never know the odds ....too many variables...one person who has a application could have it for a 2nd or 3rd choice .... and if they draw first choice then their application for the 2nd -6th choice is void increasing odds for those in the draws that they had for the 2nd- 6th choice ... presuming they drew for multiple draw.
Some of them may be party application ( counts as one) but if the party draw is for more than one person and 1 tag remains all those in the party draw can’t draw increasing your odds ..., at the same time if their are several party draws and they do draw it hurts your chances in that way
It’s all ballpark I guess
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
"Horns make pi$* poor soup"
Correct, but adding up the odds of each chance an individual submits does not give the total odds for that individual. Each chance is independent of the other so they all hold the same odds as the other, having more chances just means you have more chances at the same odds of having one ticket drawn.
“I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned.” Physicist ― Richard Feynman
Here’s the odds calculation as mentioned every November......
X=# of tickets you bought
N=# drawn
T=# of chances entered (not people, chances)
1-(((t-x)/t)^n)
Of course this does not incorporate the if 1000 are drawn before you that also put in 6 chances each, which would up your odds for each person drawn that had 6 chances in, but you can’t predict who wins with one chance vs 6 nor the order drawn. It’s just easiest to figure the % listed as an average and go from there.
This calculation would be most accurate in something like the delta bison draw or TMA, where there aren’t many drawn so the odds don’t change much per person removed from the drawing each win. Pretty hard to figure if 4000 are drawn out of say 40,000 entries. If everyone bought all 6 entries, 40,000 would be 6667 individuals, meaning odds are around 66% with 4000 tags, but we don’t know how many will apply at this point. I’m guessing a whole lot more will apply for the 4000(if this is correct) tags vs the 400 last year.
So in conclusion, buy your 6 tags, and do a rain dance....in the backyard please. Or buy your 1 chance and give me better odds, that’s ok too.
It doesn't work that way actually. Each of your entries would have a 30% chance of being drawn by itself, but it do not in any way guarantee that you will get drawn. Consider a hunt that has 100 entries (6 of those are yours). If that hunt is giving out 30 permits, then theoretically an entry would have a 30% chance of being drawn. Your 6 entries could just as easily all be in the batch of 70 entries that don't get drawn. You definitely have a lot better chance of being drawn if you have 6 entries in there, but it would not be a guaranteed draw. The only way that it would be guaranteed would be if there were only 30 individuals who submitted the 100 total entries. If there were a bunch of people who only put in 1 or 2 entries each, then you could have 50+ people trying for 30 permits.