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Thread: What do you think is correct

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cohoangler View Post
    Nerka - I’m not sure I understand. Your basic, and most important point, was that fishery management decisions on the KP are being made in Juneau, rather than in Soldotna. The Area Management Concept has guided fishery management for decades, but your comments suggest that, for the KP, ADF&G is getting away from that concept. Are you retracting that point too?

    I can understand how you might not have all the details exactly correct, and that a retraction is warranted when this happens. But was your entire post incorrect? Didn’t seem like it…..
    I do not retract the comments on where decisions are made. Decisions are made in Juneau.

  2. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    I do not retract the comments on where decisions are made. Decisions are made in Juneau.
    I too hate when ADF&G doesn't let local managers do their job of managing a fishery. Politics have no place in fisheries management and when Juneau is calling the shots we all know what is really going on.

    That being said, I have to say it seems the management plans are being followed. Commercial fisherman keep getting to fish, albeit by emergency order only because of paired restrictions. The Kenai River sockeye escapement and Kasilof River sockeye escapement are tracking very closely to historical averages here in mid July. The question is what will happen the next two weeks if big pulses of salmon push for the rivers. Do they let the surplus get harvested or do they over escape the systems like they love to do?

    I agree with Nerka about the king salmon harvest reporting. Before he even posted I too was wondering what the heck. They start out flat out giving us the numbers. Then they say they are "unavailable". Now they are giving us "estimates" and "ranges". Definatley appear to be playing games here. Hardly builds confidence in the department when they blatantly play games with numbers.

  3. #43
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    The drift fleet only took 188 sockeye per boat yesterday and only 339 boats fished. That is not a good catch for this time of year. Also the total sockeye harvest is only 425,000. That means there are 3.5 million fish to harvest by all user groups if the forecast is correct. The pattern that is developing is that the fish are coming through the district and going quickly to the river. The low drift harvest would indicate this. The alternative is that Kenai is not as strong as forecast or very late. This is a tough spot for a manager.

    One report on the fishing hot line for commercial fishing is that they use average escapement numbers and project final escapement numbers. This is a false narrative. The final escapement number is totally dependent on how one fishes the commercial fishery, sport and PU fishery. These fisheries usually take over 60% of the return. So if one uses average escapement they are assuming the average commercial and other user fishing time will be used and an average exploitation met. Not a good assumption. The last 4 years entry pattern into the inlet and the river has been atypical with a large portion of the return coming in August. The exploitation rate on the August component is near zero. So ADFG needs to figure out quickly whether this run is on forecast and with a large August component or is weak and on time. The fishing pattern for these two options are entirely different and therefore so is the final escapement forecast. Throw in chinook run strength and a whole new set of fishing pattern emerges. So one should just say we do not know what the Kenai run looks like and stop the average escapement discussion. Report the escapement numbers and remain silent until the return starts to develop better.

  4. #44

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    Nerka, more and more D boats each year,which may explain in part the lower participation levels. Many drifters felt the low harvests were attributable to little wind and warm water temperatures which could possibly lead to the fish being deeper than our nets. The last two area 1 openers had plenty of wind, which should have stirred up the fish and yet harvest rates were still low for this time of year. However, the last period was a strong north wind, which sometimes is not considered to being good fishing. That being said, my sockeyes averaged 6.6 pounds monday, much better than the last two years. I think the forecasts are on target and we will have overescapements and lost harvest at least in part to juneau running the show. I am no scientist, just a cook inlet drifter for the last 38 years taking some guesses.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by alaskanharvest View Post
    I too hate when ADF&G doesn't let local managers do their job of managing a fishery. Politics have no place in fisheries management and when Juneau is calling the shots we all know what is really going on.

    That being said, I have to say it seems the management plans are being followed. Commercial fisherman keep getting to fish, albeit by emergency order only because of paired restrictions. The Kenai River sockeye escapement and Kasilof River sockeye escapement are tracking very closely to historical averages here in mid July. The question is what will happen the next two weeks if big pulses of salmon push for the rivers. Do they let the surplus get harvested or do they over escape the systems like they love to do?

    I agree with Nerka about the king salmon harvest reporting. Before he even posted I too was wondering what the heck. They start out flat out giving us the numbers. Then they say they are "unavailable". Now they are giving us "estimates" and "ranges". Definatley appear to be playing games here. Hardly builds confidence in the department when they blatantly play games with numbers.
    Blatantly playing games? So if you go talk to them the sonar counts are actually estimates and have ranges ever read one of their reports? they are full of estimates that have ranges because they do not count every single sockeye going up river or king for that matter. If you really want to experience blatant game playing with numbers hire a financial adviser.

  6. #46

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    Quote Originally Posted by kidfromgarcia View Post
    Blatantly playing games? So if you go talk to them the sonar counts are actually estimates and have ranges ever read one of their reports? they are full of estimates that have ranges because they do not count every single sockeye going up river or king for that matter. If you really want to experience blatant game playing with numbers hire a financial adviser.
    Kid,

    You need to go re-read the post. Nobody even questioned sonar counts. King salmon harvest numbers were in question. Maybe you need to get a different financial adviser.

  7. #47

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    Quote Originally Posted by kidfromgarcia View Post
    Blatantly playing games? So if you go talk to them the sonar counts are actually estimates and have ranges ever read one of their reports? they are full of estimates that have ranges because they do not count every single sockeye going up river or king for that matter. If you really want to experience blatant game playing with numbers hire a financial adviser.
    Kid, I can' t speak for nerka or alaska harvest, but personally I hate to see the local staff handcuffed with bof and political decisions which may not be in the best interest of the resource or the various user groups. For instance, the bof meets once every 3 years and mandates in the management plan that the drift fleet will be restricted to limited areas and times Up To Three Years In Advance, with no regard to run timing or weather, and with little regard to run strength. Let the bof referee the allocation issues,decide appropriate escapement goals, and then let the local management staff the opportunity to achieve those goals,using current daily data such as escapement ,test boat indexes,harvests,weather, and physical evidence (jumpers, fish spotters,etc.)

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by alaskanharvest View Post
    Kid,

    You need to go re-read the post. Nobody even questioned sonar counts. King salmon harvest numbers were in question. Maybe you need to get a different financial adviser.
    What was the question? Did you call fish and Game and ask them tell me the question and I will call them then post what they say.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunner View Post
    Kid, I can' t speak for nerka or alaska harvest, but personally I hate to see the local staff handcuffed with bof and political decisions which may not be in the best interest of the resource or the various user groups. For instance, the bof meets once every 3 years and mandates in the management plan that the drift fleet will be restricted to limited areas and times Up To Three Years In Advance, with no regard to run timing or weather, and with little regard to run strength. Let the bof referee the allocation issues,decide appropriate escapement goals, and then let the local management staff the opportunity to achieve those goals,using current daily data such as escapement ,test boat indexes,harvests,weather, and physical evidence (jumpers, fish spotters,etc.)
    This is really bizarre I did not comment on the local staff handcuffed. I thought the comment about (paraphrasing) blatantly throwing out numbers using estimates with ranges was odd if you interact with fish and game. Because most of the numbers they give out to us are actually estimates that have ranges which is not a new thing.

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