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Thread: Sign of things to come??? Not a good start

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    Default Sign of things to come??? Not a good start


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    The ADN locks me out as not a subscriber. Can you summarize the article?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tee Jay View Post
    The ADN locks me out as not a subscriber. Can you summarize the article?
    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/sf/EONR/i...2019&NRID=2694

    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/sf/EONR/i...2019&NRID=2693


    Big Su and Little Su drainages closed to Kings

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    Supporting Member iofthetaiga's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tee Jay View Post
    The ADN locks me out as not a subscriber. Can you summarize the article?
    State fisheries officials have closed commercial and sport fishing for king salmon in northern Cook Inlet for 2019.



    The Alaska Department of Fish and Game on Monday also announced restrictions for subsistence fishing of kings, also known as chinook salmon.

    The department is restricting fishing to conserve weak stocks. Many streams have failed to see sufficient salmon return to meet department goals.
    https://www.adn.com/business-economy...rn-cook-inlet/
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tee Jay View Post
    The ADN locks me out as not a subscriber. Can you summarize the article?
    If you open your browser in incognito or private browser mode it won't lock you out. Depending on your browser the incognito or private browser mode is usually accessible by the dots on the righthand side of the browser bar next to the web address. Works for most news websites that block and want you to pay.
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    Member MRFISH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    And here's the announcement for the Northern District commercial closure and subsistence restrictions.
    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/ap...1007947072.pdf
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    Quote Originally Posted by MRFISH View Post
    And here's the announcement for the Northern District commercial closure and subsistence restrictions.
    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/ap...1007947072.pdf
    Looks like it breaks down to 100% restriction to sport fish harvest, 90-95% to commercial (based on 130 chinook harvested on sockeye/coho openers in 2018), and 33% to subsistence. This "shares the burden of conservation" between affected user groups.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willphish4food View Post
    Looks like it breaks down to 100% restriction to sport fish harvest, 90-95% to commercial (based on 130 chinook harvested on sockeye/coho openers in 2018), and 33% to subsistence. This "shares the burden of conservation" between affected user groups.
    Yes. That is quite equitable. (did you pick up on the sarcasm?)
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    Willphish- I am not knowledgeable about management of the sport and subsistence fisheries in the northern district. But on the surface, it looks to me that if the commercial fishery is completely closed,( which it is), and the return is above forecast, then possibly sport harvest could occur. In that case the burden of conservation would be shouldered mostly by commercial users. Just sayin'.

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    After last years performance I would suspect the Kenai R. ER Kings, Ninilichik, Deep Creek and Anchor will be coming up soon with some closures or restrictions to start the season. Once again That's going to put a lot of pressure on the Kasilof so expect some restrictions there as well.

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    So what is the chance that whatever has been keeping the Kodiak and Alaska Peninsula King runs in the dump for the past 10 years or so is now going to do the same with this part of Alaska? And when will the bad year's end? No one seems to when knows when it comes to the Kodiak runs the kings are just not around anymore in numbers and these are remote rivers with history of light use it is not like hundreds or thousands of people in river boats killed them all off. I have had several people tell me the king runs on Kenai are going to be bad when the subject comes up in conversation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willphish4food View Post
    Looks like it breaks down to 100% restriction to sport fish harvest, 90-95% to commercial (based on 130 chinook harvested on sockeye/coho openers in 2018), and 33% to subsistence. This "shares the burden of conservation" between affected user groups.
    You are ignoring the fact that Kings will be harmed in the many other freshwater sport fisheries which will be prosecuted in the ND even if King fishing is closed all season. I'm not bringing it up because I care about the statistically insignificant number of fish which might be harmed, but because your argument is so obviously born of Jihad mentality rather than conservation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AKPacman View Post
    After last years performance I would suspect the Kenai R. ER Kings, Ninilichik, Deep Creek and Anchor will be coming up soon with some closures or restrictions to start the season. Once again That's going to put a lot of pressure on the Kasilof so expect some restrictions there as well.
    There is a substantial likelihood that Kenai will start out CLOSED based on the yet to be released ‘large fish’ forecast.

    The entire large fish forecast hinges on three- and four-ocean fish coming off the 2013 and 2014 brood years.... the two worst-ever escapements seen in my lifetime.
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    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post

    The entire large fish forecast hinges on three- and four-ocean fish coming off the 2013 and 2014 brood years.... the two worst-ever escapements seen in my lifetime.
    This goes for BOTH the early and late runs.

    Late run 'large fish' run-sizes were down to ~13K in 2013 and 2014.

    Early run 'large fish' run sizes were down to 1.7K in 2013 and 2.7K in 2014.

    No, not just LOW... but SCARY low!
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    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    This goes for BOTH the early and late runs.

    Late run 'large fish' run-sizes were down to ~13K in 2013 and 2014.

    Early run 'large fish' run sizes were down to 1.7K in 2013 and 2.7K in 2014.

    No, not just LOW... but SCARY low!
    I understand your point but would add that 13k large Kenai late run fish isn’t a scary low number from a data standpoint.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smithtb View Post
    I understand your point but would add that 13k large Kenai late run fish isn’t a scary low number from a data standpoint.

    SERIALLY?

    Well, that's interesting. Since we've NEVER BEEN THERE prior to 2013 and 2014, how would anyone really know just how productive such poor escapements could possibly be, especially in the ongoing setting of a chinook-hostile ocean regime that still haunts us today?

    The danger signs for a large fish collapse are even more acute for the upcoming early run. Let's assemble a list of facts for the 2013 and 2014 returns.

    1) LOWEST of lows for total return
    2) LARGE FISH were MIA... 4-ocean fish were ~5% of the run, jacks represented well over half the run
    3) FEMALES were MIA.... the trib weirs at Funny and Killey averaged only 20% hens with virtually no 4-ocean egg wagons

    So the scenario looks pretty DIRE. Small parental runs with very few females... moreover, virtually NO LARGE FEMALES... means record low fecundity for the gravel in 2013 and 2014. No huevos, no pollo! Whatever emerged and survived their first winter in-river then had to out-migrate into unusually "poor ocean conditions" to feed and grow in a chinook-hostile ocean.

    So far, the 2013 brood has produced DISMAL numbers of 2-ocean recruits in 2017 and 3-ocean recruits for 2018. A reasonable person would expect more of the same for 4-ocean recruits in 2019.... especially with a HUGE shortfall of parental genetic inputs from the old/large phenotype.

    We're probably just a few weeks away from seeing an official "large fish" forecast from ADFG.
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    The data set on late run chinook is so compromised and/or has minimal data one cannot say anything with confidence. Remember just a few years ago the MSY for late run chinook was around 12,000 - all age classes. So if 13,000 large fish spawned and sex ratio was reasonable the late run may be OK. One can be precautionary in starting the season but do not be shocked if the forecast is wrong. Also ADFG has let a year pass and has no recommendations on how to deal with the large fish goal and ESSN fishery. They now catch minimal numbers of large chinook. In addition no discussion on not harvesting in August which can shift run timing. Lots to discuss but no leadership to hold court.

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    Thanks Nerka for the input that was sort of my point. Doc, I respect your opinion and I get the uncertainty and the concern with what might be going on in the ocean, but am having a hard time with the level of panic surrounding our fisheries. I mean, reading online one could easily be convinced that Kenai's King, Sockeye, Coho, and Trout fisheries are all in the midst of collapse. I just don't think that is the case.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smithtb View Post
    You are ignoring the fact that Kings will be harmed in the many other freshwater sport fisheries which will be prosecuted in the ND even if King fishing is closed all season. I'm not bringing it up because I care about the statistically insignificant number of fish which might be harmed, but because your argument is so obviously born of Jihad mentality rather than conservation.
    Funny. No sport fish harvest, only trout fishing allowed, and much of that hook and release. No quantifiable king mortality; only speculative based on sport fish survey data and hook and release mortality studies that likely bear little resemblance to the C&R scenario on the Susitna drainages. There will be some hook and release of kings that takes place once other salmon open back up, July 14th, but the numbers will be small, as the vast majority of kings will be up on the spawning grounds by then. The harvest data for the commercial fishery is solid, but if you want to split hairs, how many kings die that aren't recorded, due to dropout? How deep into the weeds do you want to go, Smith? My point is that one of three fishing groups was reduced by a third, while the other two were closed completely and nearly completely. If the emergency is so severe, subsistence should also have been reduced further.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willphish4food View Post
    Funny. No sport fish harvest, only trout fishing allowed, and much of that hook and release. No quantifiable king mortality; only speculative based on sport fish survey data and hook and release mortality studies that likely bear little resemblance to the C&R scenario on the Susitna drainages. There will be some hook and release of kings that takes place once other salmon open back up, July 14th, but the numbers will be small, as the vast majority of kings will be up on the spawning grounds by then. The harvest data for the commercial fishery is solid, but if you want to split hairs, how many kings die that aren't recorded, due to dropout? How deep into the weeds do you want to go, Smith? My point is that one of three fishing groups was reduced by a third, while the other two were closed completely and nearly completely. If the emergency is so severe, subsistence should also have been reduced further.

    So you're saying that the closure of King Salmon sport fisheries will allow for passage of most Kings to their final destination. Funny, because that's ADFG's strategy in both fisheries;

    "Commercial fishing will be closed in the Northern District of Upper Cook Inlet through June 24 to allow passage of king salmon through the district."

    I don't want to or think it is productive to split hairs. That's what gets us into the "every fish counts" discussion that causes people to roll fish, fail to report them, and argue over unknowns like C&R mortality, dropouts, rollouts, non-reporting, etc, etc, etc. 130 fish is not a significant number, spread across the entire ND return, just like the number of Kings harmed in other sport fisheries is not a significant number.

    Subsistence has priority by law.

    It super sucks that King fishing is closed in the ND. It also super sucks that you can't take a single restriction without blaming someone else.


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