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Thread: Draw Tag supplement info

  1. #41
    Member tlingitwarrior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian M View Post
    Yesterday I was told by a friend who has close connections inside of ADF&G that the numbers are based on people, not total applications. I could be wrong, but that's what I understood.
    I am convinced that it is # of applications, and not based on people. Looking at several tags, the number of entries went up 75 to 100%. I seriously doubt that DB207 saw a 93% increase in the number of people applying for the tag (320 in 2016 vs 620 in 2017). Instead, those applying for this tag put in more than one try for it. Many other tags show this same trend.
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  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlingitwarrior View Post
    I am convinced that it is # of applications, and not based on people. Looking at several tags, the number of entries went up 75 to 100%. I seriously doubt that DB207 saw a 93% increase in the number of people applying for the tag (320 in 2016 vs 620 in 2017). Instead, those applying for this tag put in more than one try for it. Many other tags show this same trend.
    Makes sense. Thanks for the feedback.

  3. #43
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    The new odds show the number of applications, not individuals. No other way DC485 went down to 16% winning in a year.
    Not sure how F&G would be able to sort out who put in once vs twice vs all six

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    Agree 100% with what cowboy said. That dc485 stat should end this discussion...

  5. #45

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    The %odds to draw calculation is no longer valid. If a person puts in for 6 applications on the same hunt, they can't draw that tag 6 times.

    There are several errors in the results of the 2017 permit hunt drawings as well. For instance, DM769 shows 54 applicants for 12 permits resulting in a 22% chance to draw. This permit issued over 300 tags last year.

  6. #46

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    Quote Originally Posted by ak_cowboy View Post
    The new odds show the number of applications, not individuals. No other way DC485 went down to 16% winning in a year.
    Not sure how F&G would be able to sort out who put in once vs twice vs all six
    Yep. There were 13,597 unique applicants for DC485 based on the drawing applicant list on the website who submitted a total of over 30,000 total applications. The odds on the last page are definitely on the number of applications and not the number of applicants.

  7. #47
    Member tlingitwarrior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerod View Post
    The %odds to draw calculation is no longer valid. If a person puts in for 6 applications on the same hunt, they can't draw that tag 6 times.
    Its not correct to say they are no longer valid, but they are more complicated. Take the following scenario. There are 500 names in the hat, and you have 6 of them. Your chances are legitimately 1.2% when the draw starts. Assume the first name out of the hat has put in 6 tries as well. You now have 6 out of 494, or 1.21%.

    It certainly was more straight forward when 1 person had only one chance, but the math doesn't change. Put in multiple chances to increase your odds, as not every person in the hat has put in multiple times.
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  8. #48
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    This is totally a shot in the dark, but I don't think ADFG is doing a bunch of multivariate analysis to determine the draw odds printed on the supplement. It seems like it's just the simple equation of tags divided by entries. There are two tags and a hundred entries, your odds of getting one with any particular entry is 2% at the beginning of the draw. The odds printed on the bulletin are no good after the first number is drawn, but they are plenty good when the applications are submitted.

  9. #49
    Member tlingitwarrior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FairbanksFlies View Post
    This is totally a shot in the dark, but I don't think ADFG is doing a bunch of multivariate analysis to determine the draw odds printed on the supplement. It seems like it's just the simple equation of tags divided by entries. There are two tags and a hundred entries, your odds of getting one with any particular entry is 2% at the beginning of the draw. The odds printed on the bulletin are no good after the first number is drawn, but they are plenty good when the applications are submitted.
    Agreed that it is the simple equation. What I'm saying that for most hunts, the odds are not going to change much through the process. Take my simplistic example again. 500 entries, and say 5 tags will be drawn. If you have 6 entries in there, your odds are 6/500. Say the first 4 tags are drawn, and the guys that were drawn all had 6 entries. For the final tag, you still have 6 chances, and there are now 476 names left. Your odds went from 1.2% to 1.26%. Not much of a difference. In theory, this system holds if there were 500 names, and for each draw, the winning person's remaining chances were taken out of the box. The way I understand the system is that the computer randomly assigns a number to all 500 names, with the lowest 5 random numbers getting the tags. It is possible under this system, that one person's entries could get the top 2 numbers. Since you can't win two tags, your second winning number is thrown out, and the next person in line (randon number "6") gets the tag. If I understand statistical theory correctly, your odds are not improved by this, you still have 1.2% chance of getting drawn, regardless of if the guy in front of you had 3 entries or 6.

    Its all a crap shoot, unless you are one of the tin hat wearing guys, and believe the system is rigged.
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    I agree to an extent tlingitwarrior. In your 5 tags with 500 entries example, the supplement will say you have a 1% chance (5/500*100). These are your odds if you put in once. It represents your minimum odds. If you put in up to 6 times, the odds increase. You can't add your odds together, for example, it wouldn't be 6% if you put in six times, you'd have to do some complex math, and maybe end up being 2-3%.

  11. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by tlingitwarrior View Post

    Its all a crap shoot, unless you are one of the tin hat wearing guys, and believe the system is rigged.

    The Russians have hacked the system. The DNC said so, therefore it must be true.

  12. #52
    Member tlingitwarrior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnny_reb View Post
    I agree to an extent tlingitwarrior. In your 5 tags with 500 entries example, the supplement will say you have a 1% chance (5/500*100). These are your odds if you put in once. It represents your minimum odds. If you put in up to 6 times, the odds increase. You can't add your odds together, for example, it wouldn't be 6% if you put in six times, you'd have to do some complex math, and maybe end up being 2-3%.
    Not true. If you have a hat, and there are 500 names in that hat, and 6 of them are mine, I have a 1.2% chance of being drawn. The Fish and Game odds assume you have just one of those names. You increase those odds by putting in multiple times. The great thing about math is that it doesn't lie, unlike ex-wives.
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  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by tlingitwarrior View Post
    Not true. If you have a hat, and there are 500 names in that hat, and 6 of them are mine, I have a 1.2% chance of being drawn. The Fish and Game odds assume you have just one of those names. You increase those odds by putting in multiple times. The great thing about math is that it doesn't lie, unlike ex-wives.
    That would be true...IF...there was one permit they're pulling names for. How does the fact they're pulling names for 5 permits in your example effect your 1.2% chance calculated by 6/500?

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    Quote Originally Posted by tlingitwarrior View Post
    The great thing about math is that it doesn't lie, unlike ex-wives.
    And elected officials :-)
    "...and then Jack chopped down the beanstock, adding murder and ecological vandalism to the theft, enticement and vandalism charges already mentioned, but he got away with it and lived happily ever after without so much as a guilty twinge about what he had done. Which proves that you can be excused just about anything if you're a hero, because no one asks the inconvenient questions." Terry Pratchett's The Hogfather

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    Just figured out that the priority this year for F&G is to have as many cow moose harvested as possible. At least as far as the Draw goes.
    "...and then Jack chopped down the beanstock, adding murder and ecological vandalism to the theft, enticement and vandalism charges already mentioned, but he got away with it and lived happily ever after without so much as a guilty twinge about what he had done. Which proves that you can be excused just about anything if you're a hero, because no one asks the inconvenient questions." Terry Pratchett's The Hogfather

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger45 View Post
    Just figured out that the priority this year for F&G is to have as many cow moose harvested as possible. At least as far as the Draw goes.
    Makes Sense! Kill all the cows, then there will be more bulls, it is a minority math fact... Easy....

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    Quote Originally Posted by jojomoose View Post
    Makes Sense! Kill all the cows, then there will be more bulls, it is a minority math fact... Easy....
    Now you're sounding like a politician, explaining how you managed to live within a budget.

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    Is there anywhere to see previous years applicants/permits issued? I don't have any previous years saved and I'd like to compile a database.

    Also is there anywhere else that has the stats in a database format vs pdf?

  19. #59

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    http://www.drawresults.adfg.alaska.gov/DrawResults/
    Quote Originally Posted by a2thak View Post
    Is there anywhere to see previous years applicants/permits issued? I don't have any previous years saved and I'd like to compile a database.

    Also is there anywhere else that has the stats in a database format vs pdf?
    Yes, it is all on the ADF&G page under the "draw results" tab. Here is a direct link. You can download the applicants and winner's list. If you open the applicants list in Adobe, you can do an "advanced find" to search for a specific hunt. For example, search for "DC485 YES" will get all of the winner for hunt DC485.


    This is just last year's though, so you may need to contact ADF&G separately to see about previous years.

  20. #60
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    Just want to make sure I'm interpreting the Tier I Unit 13 caribou hunt restrictions properly. The instructions state: If your household applies for a Unit 13 Tier I caribou permit, your household WILL receive a permit. No member of the household will be eligible to apply for or receive any other state caribou Drawing/Registration permits or general season caribou harvest tickets. No member of the household may hunt caribou outside of Unit 13. No member of the household will be eligible to apply for or receive any moose permits outside of Unit 13. No member of the household may hunt moose outside of Unit 13. Any member of the household may harvest the caribou. That seems pretty clear, but in following the various threads in the forum, it appears one forum member took a Tier I caribou a few days into the opener, another caribou in the 40-mile range, and a moose in Unit 14C. Does the State cross check the applications to void/prevent an applicant from receiving any other caribou/moose permits if someone is issued a Tier I permit? It appears that in this person's case (if his posts are accurate), there is no such mechanism in place.

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