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Thread: KENAI BROWN BEAR Article.......good overview information.

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    Default KENAI BROWN BEAR Article.......good overview information.

    I think the Brown Bear numbers are much higher, but this is a good "Overview" article on the current Kenai Brown Bear situation.

    http://www.adn.com/article/20150925/...on-can-support

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    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    I think the Brown Bear numbers are much higher, but this is a good "Overview" article on the current Kenai Brown Bear situation.

    http://www.adn.com/article/20150925/...on-can-support
    Well your the scientist. These people you study this for a living probably don't know what they are doing. Or they are lying to you. There are so many bears here in the refuge that I am scared to walk out my front door.

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    I am NOT a scientist or a hunter, in the classic definition.........I am a Naturalist and an Outdoorsman. My "FEELING" is that the population of Brown Bears on the Kenai Peninsula is closer to 1,250-1,400 that 460 they estimate.

    Quote Originally Posted by kevin476 View Post
    Well your the scientist. These people you study this for a living probably don't know what they are doing. Or they are lying to you. There are so many bears here in the refuge that I am scared to walk out my front door.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    I am NOT a scientist or a hunter, in the classic definition.........I am a Naturalist and an Outdoorsman. My "FEELING" is that the population of Brown Bears on the Kenai Peninsula is closer to 1,250-1,400 that 460 they estimate.
    Wow you should really let F&G know that. They could really use you knowledge.

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    Being that F&G get's it Bear advise directly from the Governor (See relocating Mt. View bears to Hope) do you think I should just sell my research to the top dog........???......


    Quote Originally Posted by kevin476 View Post
    Wow you should really let F&G know that. They could really use you knowledge.

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    Clearly........You need a bigger GUN or bigger GONADS......... Maybe both........ (Note: Intended as humor.......well at least in part intended as humor).

    Quote Originally Posted by kevin476 View Post
    There are so many bears here in the refuge that I am scared to walk out my front door.

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    Member kenaibow fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    My "FEELING" is that the population of Brown Bears on the Kenai Peninsula is closer to 1,250-1,400 that 460 they estimate.
    That is lower then the number I have heard thrown around.

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    Couple quick notes: 478 bears in 16,000 miles leaves one bear per 33.5 miles. 11,000 hair samples is about 2 samples every 3 square miles. 70 bears killed was roughly 20% of the estimated population. That seems like a very high percentage, given the difficulties involved in hunting brown bear. They couldn't have missed any bears, could they?

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    The hair sampling was conducted only across usfs and usfws lands. That work provided a point estimate of the number of bears on those lands only. That number was converted to a density estimate of bears per unit habitat by dividing the number of bears by acres of bear habitat on uses and usfs lands. Then the number of acres of bear habitat across the entire peninsula was estimated. That number was multiplied by the estimate of bears per unit habitat which then gave them an estimate of bears on the peninsula. A hair trapping study was not conducted across the entire peninsula, and as can be imagined, there is a lot of error in all those estimates.

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    Quote Originally Posted by unk View Post
    The hair sampling was conducted only across usfs and usfws lands. That work provided a point estimate of the number of bears on those lands only. That number was converted to a density estimate of bears per unit habitat by dividing the number of bears by acres of bear habitat on uses and usfs lands. Then the number of acres of bear habitat across the entire peninsula was estimated. That number was multiplied by the estimate of bears per unit habitat which then gave them an estimate of bears on the peninsula. A hair trapping study was not conducted across the entire peninsula, and as can be imagined, there is a lot of error in all those estimates.
    And then with all that built in error, the FW official questioned gave a very specific number, rather than a rounded number as would indicate an estimate. "478 bears, that is the number."

  11. #11

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    Right you are. Sorry for being dense on this, are you taking the USFWS to task for being so specific, or ???

    thanks

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    I think they have a CLEAR agenda and they start from that CLEAR agenda........therefore all analysis is manipulated and skewed. I love the Brown Bears, and would never ever want there to be a shortage of Brown Bears in Alaska and especially where I live on the Kenai Peninsula.

    However after decades of protection, they have substantially overgrown the population of Black Bears in my area, and they have impacted the moose population. There is nothing in Alaska as impressive as watching a massive Brown Bear move. They are so awesomely powerful and ponderous the why their body moves.

    Quote Originally Posted by unk View Post
    Right you are. Sorry for being dense on this, are you taking the USFWS to task for being so specific, or ???

    thanks

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    Quote Originally Posted by unk View Post
    Right you are. Sorry for being dense on this, are you taking the USFWS to task for being so specific, or ???

    thanks
    I am taking them to task for using a specific number to describe an estimated population. The number is too specific given the methodology of arriving at the number.

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    Default KENAI BROWN BEAR Article.......good overview information.

    I don't think it's fair to pick on a model producing a number. Be a bit more articulate.

    What is the proper ratio of brown to black bears on the Kenai peninsula? Do federal managers address this ratio?

    Anybody know?

    Biologists on the refuge are basically tasked with managing for the natural diversity. Yet historical data are scarce, and not necessarily representative of any sort of equilibrium.

    If I was a moose id prefer blackie encounters to browns...

    But obviously they are different niches.

    Would black populations recover if more browns were dead? I kinda doubt it. I think hunters would take the surplus survival given current regs... But maybe there are all kindsa vast unhunted parts of the peninsula where theyd really recover in number. I'm skeptical.

    So I think any attempt to change the ratio would have to be met with decreased black bear harvest...

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