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Thread: Oil prices and real estate

  1. #41

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    Another factor was that in 1986-87 the Internal Revenue made huge changes in Tax Code that adversely effected Real Estate. One being the elimination of double declining balance depreciation, and the ability to use that right-off against (Off-Set) regular earned income. They also eliminated the "ITC" provision (Investment Tax Credit).

  2. #42

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    Well originally I was hoping to get into an intellectual discussion about where the market was going and to see who else was saving and waiting to jump on some good deals, which I have with one poster. I am just as worried about lay offs as anyone else but if I dodge the lay offs then the silver lining is I may not have to be an indentured servant to a bank to pay for some one elses inflated sense of worth in their property. I would prefer not to move because I have family here and have lived here most of my life.

    I am not socialist but I think the city needs to crack down by eminent domain and build high density housing (not cook inlet) and start hammering people that are not in code compliance, too many slum lords and boarder line slum lords in this town. Its sounds like I am fairly alone in my thinking, if so then so be it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Akheloce View Post
    rrpearso, what do you want? What is the purpose of your *****ing?

    Do you want price controls? Why do you keep complaining? What is your solution?

  3. #43

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    Thats nice if you work in Soldotna (BTW 250k is pretty steep for soldotna since wages are likely lower there and there are less jobs). Alot of people live in Anchorage and dont want the absolutly horrid commute to the valley. Like you said about the trucks, people wont stop running prices up on you unless they loose their source of revenue. THAT is why I am not super sad to see lay offs so long as its not me. When people are willing to pay high prices, get involved in bidding wars, etc they are indirectly negitivly effecting my quality of life so why should I be nice about it and hope people can keep running costs up on me?

    Quote Originally Posted by kasilofchrisn View Post
    I know guy who moved to Kentucky. You should see the house he got for just over 300K Place is huge with some acreage if I remember correctly.
    He could have gotten a decent single family home for much much less but had the budget for the bigger house.
    I hate to say it but Alaska isn't for everybody. If you can't afford it well then...... there's always cheaper places in the USA to live.
    I don't believe a pickup truck should cost $60K+ but that's the nationwide price for a new 1 ton diesel truck. I would also like to see people refuse to pay that much but don't really expect it to happen.
    there are also cheaper places to buy an Alaskan home than Anchorage. Mine n the Soldotna area was nowhere near 400K in fact I paid less than 250K with over an acre for a 3 bedroom 2 bath house. On a nice lot that doesn't allow me to see any neighbors from my windows.

  4. #44

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    It only upsets people with a dog in the fight, im sure you would be smiling ear to ear if you made 50 grand in the sale of your house while some young family suffered and struggled to pay their mortgage every month, but thats just the market right.

    Quote Originally Posted by kasilofchrisn View Post
    I believe his solution is half this state being unemployed and the other half being not far from it as well with families living on the street so he can snatch up their foreclosed homes for nickles on the dollar.
    He wants our homes for cheap at whatever cost or whatever grievance it brings the rest of us so long as he gets his for nickles on the dollar.
    At least that's what I read from his posts and the way he wrote them.
    Had he worded it so as not to sound happy for those facing the loss of their home it may not have upset me so much.

  5. #45

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    But those are still in effect today

    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    Another factor was that in 1986-87 the Internal Revenue made huge changes in Tax Code that adversely effected Real Estate. One being the elimination of double declining balance depreciation, and the ability to use that right-off against (Off-Set) regular earned income. They also eliminated the "ITC" provision (Investment Tax Credit).

  6. #46

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    Quote Originally Posted by rppearso View Post
    I am a long time Alaskan and while I was a very small child in 85/86 I have heard stories of being able to buy nice condos in south anchorage for around 20k (nickles on the dollar). As oil prices tank and the lay offs have been on going I am barely seeing a dent in various real estate prices. I have heard that the crash in 85/86 was extremely abrupt, prices crashed from full blown fleece to reasonable prices within a 3 month period. Was that because everyone was laid off enmass in one month where as now it seems like the lay offs are trickling out over more than a year so we are not seeing a huge glut of properties hit the market yet?

    Do oil prices have to drop even lower? Adjusted for inflation we are not far away from mid 80's 10$ a barrel oil. I am hoping we have another year or 2 so I can keep saving up to buy a nice single family home with a cashiers check but I kind of thought with the lay offs we have already seen and the base down sizing that it would start being reflected a little in the market but there is no shortage of grossly over priced single family homes still.
    Quote Originally Posted by rppearso View Post
    So I guess no one else is excited for the potential of buying a house without a mortgage.
    Your original two post have everything to do with the feedback you have received!

    You should have chosen your words wiser!
    May I ask what your profession is?
    Medical? Legal?



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  7. #47
    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rppearso View Post
    ... I may not have to be an indentured servant to a bank to pay for some one elses inflated sense of worth in their property.
    A home's value is not based on someone's inflated sense of worth. Seriously, if you were selling a property and someone offered you 250k while another offered 300k, tell me which offer you would accept? It wouldn't be due to your inflated sense of worth, it would be due to your common sense in following market dynamics.

    Prices may soften a bit in time if our government cannot find a way to fund state services and/or if oil prices remain depressed, but I think the serious drop in prices that you're hoping for will not materialize. If you want to work your way towards your goals, make your money work for you. Might I suggest rental properties, especially a multi-family unit that you live in? You won't make a killing (it's not the money train you make it out to be - rental property owners are not fleecing people) - but it can be a good way to build equity over a period of 10-30 years if one is wise.

  8. #48
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    This market is much more diversified. When every Harry, Dick and Tom has money in the bank without really having any skills or abilities the next guy doesn't have, then expect to have competition for those 90k condos.

  9. #49

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    Thats true, so long as the market does not drop out at say year 10 in your ownership of that property and then you are scrambling to figure out how to keep the property and not loose it all after investing 10 years into dealing with tenants. No serious investor accepts a 30 year pay off because you are leveraged out too long and there are too many unknowns.

    I agree it wont be the same as the mid 80's but i think it could get close. What isent tied to oil in this state still other than some trinket sellers and a few fishing boats. Lets not dilude ourselves into believeing that tourism and fishing are some kind of mega industries that will off set oil so we can all go about eating our mooses tooth and living in bay shore homes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian M View Post
    A home's value is not based on someone's inflated sense of worth. Seriously, if you were selling a property and someone offered you 250k while another offered 300k, tell me which offer you would accept? It wouldn't be due to your inflated sense of worth, it would be due to your common sense in following market dynamics.

    Prices may soften a bit in time if our government cannot find a way to fund state services and/or if oil prices remain depressed, but I think the serious drop in prices that you're hoping for will not materialize. If you want to work your way towards your goals, make your money work for you. Might I suggest rental properties, especially a multi-family unit that you live in? You won't make a killing (it's not the money train you make it out to be - rental property owners are not fleecing people) - but it can be a good way to build equity over a period of 10-30 years if one is wise.

  10. #50

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    That may be and if things dont budge then moving out of state may be viable, we will see what happens in the next couple of years.

    Quote Originally Posted by BTK View Post
    This market is much more diversified. When every Harry, Dick and Tom has money in the bank without really having any skills or abilities the next guy doesn't have, then expect to have competition for those 90k condos.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by rppearso View Post
    That may be and if things dont budge then moving out of state may be viable, we will see what happens in the next couple of years.
    Don't let the door hit you in the rear on your way out.
    I doubt you have any idea of the cost per square foot to build these days in Alaska.
    Wishing bad luck on other people shows me what type of person you are.
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  12. #52
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    Hopefully Alaska gets its stuff together with regards to marijuana. Colorado has such a huge excess from the taxing of it they are talking about issuing additional refunds to the state residents. I don't think ak will become the marijuana mecca that Colorado is, but I can see it bringing a good chunk of money to the state to help offset oil revenue.


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  13. #53
    Premium Member kasilofchrisn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rppearso View Post
    Thats nice if you work in Soldotna (BTW 250k is pretty steep for soldotna since wages are likely lower there and there are less jobs). Alot of people live in Anchorage and dont want the absolutly horrid commute to the valley. Like you said about the trucks, people wont stop running prices up on you unless they loose their source of revenue. THAT is why I am not super sad to see lay offs so long as its not me. When people are willing to pay high prices, get involved in bidding wars, etc they are indirectly negitivly effecting my quality of life so why should I be nice about it and hope people can keep running costs up on me?
    Wages lower here? What planet are you from? Do you realize how many slope workers live here? How many people here make over 100K a year?
    I said I paid less than 250K not that I paid 250K. I don't/won't discuss my personal finances so don't ask for specifics on what I make.
    We bought our house to live in until we die. I have no intention of selling it and making a profit.
    But If I was going to sell why wouldn't I try and maximize what I get for it? because the buyer wants a good deal?
    Because I feel sorry for some poor couple, do not care about my own finances and feel they should get a deal cause they didn't try harder to make more money?
    Should I sell cheap because you feel the market is too high and that may help offset high Alaska home prices?
    My (now ex) brother in law turned down a good job in California when he found out mortgages averaged over $3,000 a month.
    He bought a decent single family home in Iowa for $80,000 and got a decent job there(he's an electrical engineer).
    That's the decision they made based on cost of living among other factors. You too can do the same.
    You made it seem like you are very excited to see people loose their jobs and sell their homes for nickles on the dollar.
    If you had worded it differently I wouldn't have even joined this discussion.
    But to be excited over our states economy tanking and people becoming homeless (myself included)is a bit much for me to be quiet about.
    "The closer I get to nature the farther I am from idiots"

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  14. #54
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    I am probably reading RPPEARSO wrong, but I thought he was speculating on how to capitalize on a down real estate market. That seems prudent in the current environment. The state's long term finances are shaky at best. How are the 40% of us who work going to subsidize the 60% who do not, so they can continue to get a PFD check every October. Gov Walker's finance briefing if FBK over summer speculated $10K tax bill per worker to make up the difference. Even if you make it progressive you suck out a lot from the economy to keep the state fully funded. Gonna' pump more oil any time soon...nope. Military announced 2000 in Anchorage cuts. My guess is we will have a fire sale in Los Anchorage in 3-4 years. Houses, trucks, ATV's, boats, dipnets, a share of Charlo Greene's pot parlor, at rock bottom prices.
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  15. #55

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    I know now roughly how much it costs (for building materials), which is why I am so ruthless about my stance, land holders and certian contractors are making a KILLING. Take a look at some of these general contractors annual profits and go to the bourough website and see the real estate deals they are involved with. I will give you a hint cost of materials is only a small part and unless you are building a non commercial small building in the far corner of the valley you will be required to have licence and bonding which I get the reasoning behind but the problem is it's not practicel for the little guy to do that at a reasonable price.

    as oil companies, the state and munis start saying no to these ridiculous bill rates then the rest of us can actually start doing stuff with out a million dollar bond and tons of money for a small construction job. I am all for the construction workers getting paid well but how is the owner/board able to make millions in profit?

    Quote Originally Posted by SmokeRoss View Post
    Don't let the door hit you in the rear on your way out.
    I doubt you have any idea of the cost per square foot to build these days in Alaska.
    Wishing bad luck on other people shows me what type of person you are.

  16. #56

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    Oh yea I forgot about the welfare programs, have you noticed how nice cook inlet housing is for people with no drive/motivation to do anything more than push a broom or pop out kids. These programs were originally developed for people who were legitimately in dire straights not to import people from the spice islands for political votes. You would have to be a DINK couple each making 6 figures to get the finishes and solar panels that cook inlet housing folks have. So between the crony capitalism and welfare its putting the squeeze on the actual people working, I think I have a right to be upset about it and salivate over their pending consequences, since I you know WORK for a living.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mkay View Post
    I am probably reading RPPEARSO wrong, but I thought he was speculating on how to capitalize on a down real estate market. That seems prudent in the current environment. The state's long term finances are shaky at best. How are the 40% of us who work going to subsidize the 60% who do not, so they can continue to get a PFD check every October. Gov Walker's finance briefing if FBK over summer speculated $10K tax bill per worker to make up the difference. Even if you make it progressive you suck out a lot from the economy to keep the state fully funded. Gonna' pump more oil any time soon...nope. Military announced 2000 in Anchorage cuts. My guess is we will have a fire sale in Los Anchorage in 3-4 years. Houses, trucks, ATV's, boats, dipnets, a share of Charlo Greene's pot parlor, at rock bottom prices.

  17. #57

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    "good wage" is relative, it is relative to the cost of living. when you are considering a move to somewhere and you still have a job you have a tremendous amount of leverage, if I were to move to cali I would back calculate how much I needed to make in order to offset all my taxes and all the fleecing, I suspect it could come out some where around a half million a year for me to set foot in that state and I would probably net 100k a year after all the taxes and housing and that's not too shabby. That's how more people need to start thinking, but they wont, they will get some job making 80-90k a year, maybe even 100k and think its "good money" then take out a loan on a home priced way above what they can actually afford because the bank will lend them the money.

    so when employers are not paying a half million a year to keep people around what is left?

    And no you should not sell a dime less than the market will bare, my hope is that the market will only bare a certain amount because I am in the opposite position as you, supply and demand is by its very nature antagonistic. We can all smile and shake hands but at the end of the day someone is winning and someone is loosing (unless its an estate sale conducted by the state or something rare like that). I simply am tired of being the looser, and unfortunately that means I get to be the a hole. I did not get to inherit a bunch of stuff from estates so that I can sit back and smile and be friends with everyone, I am going to have to fight, that is just the ugly reality.

    Quote Originally Posted by kasilofchrisn View Post
    Wages lower here? What planet are you from? Do you realize how many slope workers live here? How many people here make over 100K a year?
    I said I paid less than 250K not that I paid 250K. I don't/won't discuss my personal finances so don't ask for specifics on what I make.
    We bought our house to live in until we die. I have no intention of selling it and making a profit.
    But If I was going to sell why wouldn't I try and maximize what I get for it? because the buyer wants a good deal?
    Because I feel sorry for some poor couple, do not care about my own finances and feel they should get a deal cause they didn't try harder to make more money?
    Should I sell cheap because you feel the market is too high and that may help offset high Alaska home prices?
    My (now ex) brother in law turned down a good job in California when he found out mortgages averaged over $3,000 a month.
    He bought a decent single family home in Iowa for $80,000 and got a decent job there(he's an electrical engineer).
    That's the decision they made based on cost of living among other factors. You too can do the same.
    You made it seem like you are very excited to see people loose their jobs and sell their homes for nickles on the dollar.
    If you had worded it differently I wouldn't have even joined this discussion.
    But to be excited over our states economy tanking and people becoming homeless (myself included)is a bit much for me to be quiet about.

  18. #58

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    Yes, We are going to see huge changes in Alaska in the near future. Lots of new taxes, State sales tax, Anchorage sales tax, higher retail gasoline and diesel and stove oil tax, There will be more cut backs in the oil'patch, but the real layoffs will be downline of reduced Alaska State income shortfall, and subsequent drastic reduction in funding for programs of all types. As things tighten up, crime will increase, cost of prisons, Law Enforcement will increase, etc.......

    I just keep praying that the pipeline which is now 20 years past it's designed life, can avoid massive shut-down and replacement of sections or the entire line. Alaska has seen it's finest hour a few decades ago.

    We have for sometime now been in an escalating period of to many humans in Alaska fighting over Fish, Game, Revenue, Wilderness access, Quality of life.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mkay View Post
    I am probably reading RPPEARSO wrong, but I thought he was speculating on how to capitalize on a down real estate market. That seems prudent in the current environment. The state's long term finances are shaky at best. How are the 40% of us who work going to subsidize the 60% who do not, so they can continue to get a PFD check every October. Gov Walker's finance briefing if FBK over summer speculated $10K tax bill per worker to make up the difference. Even if you make it progressive you suck out a lot from the economy to keep the state fully funded. Gonna' pump more oil any time soon...nope. Military announced 2000 in Anchorage cuts. My guess is we will have a fire sale in Los Anchorage in 3-4 years. Houses, trucks, ATV's, boats, dipnets, a share of Charlo Greene's pot parlor, at rock bottom prices.

  19. #59

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    I think people will leave Alaska, I don't think we will see riots or other such behavior in Alaska, the weather is too brutal once things start to deteriorate.

    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    Yes, We are going to see huge changes in Alaska in the near future. Lots of new taxes, State sales tax, Anchorage sales tax, higher retail gasoline and diesel and stove oil tax, There will be more cut backs in the oil'patch, but the real layoffs will be downline of reduced Alaska State income shortfall, and subsequent drastic reduction in funding for programs of all types. As things tighten up, crime will increase, cost of prisons, Law Enforcement will increase, etc.......

    I just keep praying that the pipeline which is now 20 years past it's designed life, can avoid massive shut-down and replacement of sections or the entire line. Alaska has seen it's finest hour a few decades ago.

    We have for sometime now been in an escalating period of to many humans in Alaska fighting over Fish, Game, Revenue, Wilderness access, Quality of life.

  20. #60
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    Dude, you really need help. Licking your chops to buy a house because of someone else's bad fortune is low.

    I've had to lay two people off in the last month. These aren't guys that were working directly for the oil companies. They weren't making 100k+ per year. They were hardworking guys just trying to provide for their families. Wish I could tell you how much fun that was....*rolls eyes*

    Unless I missed it, you never did answer the question about your occupation...........college education?

    All we have is another person who wants something for next to nothing.

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