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Thread: An encouraging start for Kenai Kings

  1. #1

    Default An encouraging start for Kenai Kings

    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/sf/FishCo...n.kenaiChinook

    Not bad for the first few days of counting. This is a good thing!

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    Member Hunt&FishAK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by smithtb View Post
    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/sf/FishCo...n.kenaiChinook

    Not bad for the first few days of counting. This is a good thing!

    Was camped at the mouth all weekend. They were rolling everywhere



    Release Lake Trout

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hunt&FishAK View Post
    Was camped at the mouth all weekend. They were rolling everywhere
    You are the second person I've heard say that in the last week.

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    This is a little bit of good news for a region that could use some...... Hope it continues. And spreads. The other KP tribs could use all the help they can get (i.e., spawning Chinook salmon).

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    I've been noticing, too, tb.

    Signs of life, indeed!
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

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    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    And with 194 of those 260 kings representing "large fish" targets (eye-fork > 30 inches), we may well have the beginnings of a REAL king run at last!
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

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    Member SANDRAT's Avatar
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    I was waiting for the tide to come up at the river mouth on the 8th of this month, a huge run was coming in at the start of the flood tide. Very encouraging

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    Could his be a result of a very mild winter and spring and the run tming has just been moved back?
    Would like whom ever thinks they are the resident expert to explain why the final early run numbers for 2013 and 14
    are now shown to be quite different from the numbers published by the Dept then. Last year the Dept showed that the
    early run barely met its lower goal. If the extrapolation is accurate then the current passage by the new location is even more encouraging.
    Does the Dept plan on doing a net apportionment at the new location to get an estimate of small kings? And are they still using
    a multiplier to count kings hat might escape detection? Nerka, you seem to know a bit about counts. What say you?

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Questairtoo View Post
    Could his be a result of a very mild winter and spring and the run tming has just been moved back?
    Would like whom ever thinks they are the resident expert to explain why the final early run numbers for 2013 and 14
    are now shown to be quite different from the numbers published by the Dept then. Last year the Dept showed that the
    early run barely met its lower goal. If the extrapolation is accurate then the current passage by the new location is even more encouraging.
    Does the Dept plan on doing a net apportionment at the new location to get an estimate of small kings? And are they still using
    a multiplier to count kings hat might escape detection? Nerka, you seem to know a bit about counts. What say you?
    Well I don't think I'm an expert, but I know more than you, so...

    Yes, the final counts are apportioned using the netting, but the netting is at RM 8 (old counter location) I believe. If you select the second tab on the counter page, you can see the raw hits on the sonar before apportionment. No, there is no expansion factor being used. ADFG is confident they are sonifying the entire water column. Others are not so confident that is the case, but we will see.

    Don't know why the numbers from 2013/2014 are different. Will leave that to someone else.

    Lots of large fish in the first part of the run, which is a good sign but also typical - likely Killey/Benjamin fish which come a little earlier. Will likely see some smaller ones here soon.

    My theory is that the warm bubble of water (short-term shift in PDO) in the Pacific thought to be responsible for our mild winters as of late has helped our king survival, and it has been going on for several years now which has helped provide more older/bigger fish. This year's forecast was for more 1.4's, and this is an encouraging start.

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    Member JR2's Avatar
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    On a side note to the Kenai counts its good to see a nice slug of fish going in the Anchor as well. Lets hope the other small streams see the same thing.
    2007 Kingfisher 2825 - Stor Fisk

    Civilization ends at the waterline. Beyond that, we all enter the food chain, and not always right at the top. -- Hunter S. Thompson

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Questairtoo View Post
    Could his be a result of a very mild winter and spring and the run tming has just been moved back?
    Would like whom ever thinks they are the resident expert to explain why the final early run numbers for 2013 and 14
    are now shown to be quite different from the numbers published by the Dept then. Last year the Dept showed that the
    early run barely met its lower goal. If the extrapolation is accurate then the current passage by the new location is even more encouraging.
    Does the Dept plan on doing a net apportionment at the new location to get an estimate of small kings? And are they still using
    a multiplier to count kings hat might escape detection? Nerka, you seem to know a bit about counts. What say you?
    Didn't want to leave you hanging on the difference between the escapement numbers Quest. The counts published last year were using expanded Didson counts from RM 9. The counts you see now on the sonar page are ARIS counts (apportioned using netting I think but no expansion factor) from RM14 - they ran the counter for the last 2 years but did not publish ARIS counts until they changed over. Table 2 of the linked Memo shows the difference.

    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fi...chman_memo.pdf

    Remember, both counters were off compared to the Fed's weir counts, and weirs are hard to beat for accuracy. It will be interesting to see the weir data here in a couple weeks. They should also have sex information, which will also tell a story. Hopefully more females this year.

    This discussion highlights a major concern of mine. With the changing of the counters, the elimination of the expansion factor, the change in counter location and associated run timing issues, new/different (better) netting efforts, and a bunch of Bayesian models topping it off, there are different numbers flying around everywhere. IMO a creative person lacking ethics could really play some games with these numbers.

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    Member JR2's Avatar
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    The Anchor is killing it this year. 1400 plus kings already, has to be a good sign for the Kenai.
    2007 Kingfisher 2825 - Stor Fisk

    Civilization ends at the waterline. Beyond that, we all enter the food chain, and not always right at the top. -- Hunter S. Thompson

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    If the king run on the Kenai is early it could create some issues with the counts of late run kings. Say for example that the early run is early.That may well mean that the late run might be early. If that were to be the case kings counted against the early run might involve fish that would normally be counted later in July as late run kings. That could result in less fish counted against the late run resulting in restrictions that otherwise might not have been necessary if the run timing was more is keeping with prior years. So we might end up with a very robust early run and a weak late run because of the arbitrary use of July 1 as the start of the late run and the lack of real time test data of the origin of the kings. Obviously it is a bit early to make any meaningful decisions to relax restrictions in river.

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Questairtoo View Post
    If the king run on the Kenai is early it could create some issues with the counts of late run kings. Say for example that the early run is early.That may well mean that the late run might be early. If that were to be the case kings counted against the early run might involve fish that would normally be counted later in July as late run kings. That could result in less fish counted against the late run resulting in restrictions that otherwise might not have been necessary if the run timing was more is keeping with prior years. So we might end up with a very robust early run and a weak late run because of the arbitrary use of July 1 as the start of the late run and the lack of real time test data of the origin of the kings. Obviously it is a bit early to make any meaningful decisions to relax restrictions in river.
    I hope F&G are asking for birth certificates.....

    i was was on the Kenai the other day and saw the buoys out and quonset hut set up at the old sonar site at river mile 8. Anybody know what this is all about? Is this for test netting or is the sonar still being used?

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    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Questairtoo View Post
    If the king run on the Kenai is early it could create some issues with the counts of late run kings. Say for example that the early run is early.That may well mean that the late run might be early. If that were to be the case kings counted against the early run might involve fish that would normally be counted later in July as late run kings. That could result in less fish counted against the late run resulting in restrictions that otherwise might not have been necessary if the run timing was more is keeping with prior years. So we might end up with a very robust early run and a weak late run because of the arbitrary use of July 1 as the start of the late run and the lack of real time test data of the origin of the kings. Obviously it is a bit early to make any meaningful decisions to relax restrictions in river.
    I wouldn't sweat that late run count.

    If anything it will be biased high if the fish are truly early.

    Initial counts starting July 1 will start well into the leading ramp up... bigger daily hits than you'd see with normal run timing

    The counts at the tail end of July will be bolstered by the normally STRONG August component we've seen in the past 7-8 years
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  16. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Questairtoo View Post
    If the king run on the Kenai is early it could create some issues with the counts of late run kings. Say for example that the early run is early.That may well mean that the late run might be early. If that were to be the case kings counted against the early run might involve fish that would normally be counted later in July as late run kings. That could result in less fish counted against the late run resulting in restrictions that otherwise might not have been necessary if the run timing was more is keeping with prior years. So we might end up with a very robust early run and a weak late run because of the arbitrary use of July 1 as the start of the late run and the lack of real time test data of the origin of the kings. Obviously it is a bit early to make any meaningful decisions to relax restrictions in river.
    Luckily, the ESSN's will likely fire up in late June, providing real time test data of the origin of the kings. It will give an idea of the proportion of ER/LR kings. And it is solid data, since ESSN fishermen are just as honest as any other fishermen, and their catch data is some of the most forward looking, accurate, scientific, timely and heavily studied catch data that ADFG has - one of the few fisheries where genetic testing is still funded. Next time you see an ESSN fisherman, you should probably thank them for the valuable scientific data they help provide.

    Oh, and you are welcome for my answering of your previous questions...

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    Quote Originally Posted by smithtb View Post
    Luckily, the ESSN's will likely fire up in late June, providing real time test data of the origin of the kings. It will give an idea of the proportion of ER/LR kings. And it is solid data, since ESSN fishermen are just as honest as any other fishermen, and their catch data is some of the most forward looking, accurate, scientific, timely and heavily studied catch data that ADFG has - one of the few fisheries where genetic testing is still funded. Next time you see an ESSN fisherman, you should probably thank them for the valuable scientific data they help provide.Oh, and you are welcome for my answering of your previous questions...
    Smithtb, You are just unable to be other than mean spirited. No matter what. Thank you.

  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Questairtoo View Post
    Smithtb, You are just unable to be other than mean spirited. No matter what. Thank you.
    Hello pot. My name is kettle. You are so very welcome. I was attempting to be funny. But I am from the KP, so mean-spirited is what I'm all about...

  19. #19

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    Mean spirited would be mentioning that it will be impossible to count late run kings at all if we have no ADFG employees to count them due to the fact that our politicians have failed to get a budget passed... Doh!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Questairtoo View Post
    If the king run on the Kenai is early it could create some issues with the counts of late run kings. Say for example that the early run is early.That may well mean that the late run might be early. If that were to be the case kings counted against the early run might involve fish that would normally be counted later in July as late run kings. That could result in less fish counted against the late run resulting in restrictions that otherwise might not have been necessary if the run timing was more is keeping with prior years. So we might end up with a very robust early run and a weak late run because of the arbitrary use of July 1 as the start of the late run and the lack of real time test data of the origin of the kings. Obviously it is a bit early to make any meaningful decisions to relax restrictions in river.
    Questairtoo you are 100 percent correct. The date of July 1 can really foul up the look of a return and it could lead to more restrictions in the sockeye commercial fishery. It also can give a false impression on how the early run is doing and remove potential restrictions next year that may be needed. Not a good situation and why I have pushed for a total independent review of the whole counting system and management approach. No one is willing to take this task on but it needs to be done.

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