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Thread: Weather: Forecast vs Reality

  1. #1

    Default Weather: Forecast vs Reality

    Hate posting about no fish but maybe this will help others trying the area.

    So plans for Saturday was to hit Whiskey Gulch or Homer. But there forecast is for 3 ft in Homer with 20knt winds and 5 ft in Lower Cook Inlet. Even the spot forecast was reading 3-5 ft for Lower Cook Inlet.

    My alarm goes off at 3am. Weather looks nasty. Back in bed. Check again at 8am and it seems better. Not the forecast but the general wind conditions.

    Check: Homerwebcams.com
    Check: the new K-Bay buoy

    Doesn't seem THAT bad...

    So off I go. Flat tire at Hope. ARGH. Back to Anchorage. Decide I can hit the low slack at Whiskey Gulch. Forecast still remains similar. Get to the beach at 6:00pm. Current is raging with the big tides. Low tide is at 9:30pm. Sunset is at 9:30pm. I want to stay close to the launch so I fight the urge to jump in the water and wait till 7pm.

    Once I launch, I can hold position or move slightly up current. I stayed in front of the car basically the whole time. So at least with a Hobie, you can hold your position even on a big tide swing within 2 maybe 3 hours prior to high or low tide. The last hour and a half, I could freely do circles or move as I pleased.

    Fished halibut for an hour. trolled king for two. Nothing. But you can see the water is pretty flat. Glad I went. At least I got it out of my system.

    one minute video of conditions and landing.
    https://youtu.be/gezZH59CH6A

  2. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2012
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    Valley
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    144

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Kardinal_84 View Post
    Hate posting about no fish but maybe this will help others trying the area.

    So plans for Saturday was to hit Whiskey Gulch or Homer. But there forecast is for 3 ft in Homer with 20knt winds and 5 ft in Lower Cook Inlet. Even the spot forecast was reading 3-5 ft for Lower Cook Inlet.

    My alarm goes off at 3am. Weather looks nasty. Back in bed. Check again at 8am and it seems better. Not the forecast but the general wind conditions.

    Check: Homerwebcams.com
    Check: the new K-Bay buoy

    Doesn't seem THAT bad...

    So off I go. Flat tire at Hope. ARGH. Back to Anchorage. Decide I can hit the low slack at Whiskey Gulch. Forecast still remains similar. Get to the beach at 6:00pm. Current is raging with the big tides. Low tide is at 9:30pm. Sunset is at 9:30pm. I want to stay close to the launch so I fight the urge to jump in the water and wait till 7pm.

    Once I launch, I can hold position or move slightly up current. I stayed in front of the car basically the whole time. So at least with a Hobie, you can hold your position even on a big tide swing within 2 maybe 3 hours prior to high or low tide. The last hour and a half, I could freely do circles or move as I pleased.

    Fished halibut for an hour. trolled king for two. Nothing. But you can see the water is pretty flat. Glad I went. At least I got it out of my system.

    one minute video of conditions and landing.
    https://youtu.be/gezZH59CH6A

    I am a weather forecaster in the military, and while I do not forecast the winds/waves, we do use them I know the NWS that issues the forecasts here in AK put a forecast out twice a day, and I believe it is non-amendable, meaning they will not change it. I could be wrong on that part (non amending), but they also use buoy data as well. I have noticed in the last two years, several of the buoys being taken out of service due to one reason or another, and not being brought back up. Also, there are times during our exercises here, that we have to use the US Navy's winds/wave heights for her in AK, and there is sometimes a very large difference in the two. Of course what we use from the Navy is coming from Norfolk, VA.

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