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Thread: Big push of reds into the Kenai??

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    Member AK Troutbum's Avatar
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    Default Big push of reds into the Kenai??

    My wife told me a couple days ago that a huge push of reds (265K) hit the Kenai. She said that she heard about it again yesterday on the radio. I've checked the F&G counts, updated through the 25th, and so far nothing anywhere near that size of a run has come in. Has anyone else heard this rumor?

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    Quote Originally Posted by AK Troutbum View Post
    My wife told me a couple days ago that a huge push of reds (265K) hit the Kenai. She said that she heard about it again yesterday on the radio. I've checked the F&G counts, updated through the 25th, and so far nothing anywhere near that size of a run has come in. Has anyone else heard this rumor?
    I talked to ADF&G yesterday and no sign of this at counter. With a number like that it would have to be counted at the upper sonar site unless Sport Fish is counting sockeye at the lower site which I think is unlikely since nothing is published. So I would say this is rumor until the counts show something.

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    Member 4merguide's Avatar
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    Well, if she heard this a couple days ago, the commercial line doesn't know anything about it......cause I call it every day. 32k yesterday and if I recall around the same the day before......
    Sheep hunting...... the pain goes away, but the stupidity remains...!!!

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    Member akmac's Avatar
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    I was down on the mouth of the river yesterday for several hours. No signs of that many fish, dipnetters were getting a few but there were very few jumpers in the water.

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    Member ak_cowboy's Avatar
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    Sonar had 32000 yesterday...

    sent from my igloo

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    From all indications, the next big push into the Kenai will be pinks. I am pretty much losing any hope that we will see any fishable numbers of reds in the lower river. This has been one of the poorest red runs for the rod and reel guys in my thirty years. I am pretty spoiled and don't care to fish for reds. I like to catch reds so that means if I'm not hooking a couple and hour, I'd rather be doing something else. The crowds have been increasing each year, so maybe a poor year like this will help to ease the crowding in years to come. It looks like we will barely make the escapement so ADFG will have done their job. Hopefully the kings will make a comeback soon and I can get back to what I really enjoy. Until then, bring on the silvers and humps !

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    I think it's all a matter of perspective. I've talked to several rod and reel guys I know who have limited day in and day out. Yes, we did not get a huge pulse of fish into the river yet this year, but daily counts of 30,40,50,60,000 make for some decent fishing.

    I think that the huge pulses of fish into the Kenai the last several years has set everyone's sights a little high...

    But yeah, we seem to be missing some reds so far this year. But, it ain't over...

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    Heard the same on the Wolf radio station fishing report, about pooped my pants until I checked the website.

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    Historically, Such stories seem to be generated for the purpose of luring more fisherpersons, for more spending.

    When I hear there is Boo Coo fish in the river, I know that the run is nearly OVER.

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    The only time period that has shown that number this week would have to have been a weekly total.


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    Quote Originally Posted by akcarv View Post
    From all indications, the next big push into the Kenai will be pinks. I am pretty much losing any hope that we will see any fishable numbers of reds in the lower river. This has been one of the poorest red runs for the rod and reel guys in my thirty years. I am pretty spoiled and don't care to fish for reds. I like to catch reds so that means if I'm not hooking a couple and hour, I'd rather be doing something else. The crowds have been increasing each year, so maybe a poor year like this will help to ease the crowding in years to come. It looks like we will barely make the escapement so ADFG will have done their job. Hopefully the kings will make a comeback soon and I can get back to what I really enjoy. Until then, bring on the silvers and humps !
    I'm not sure of what your idea of fishable numbers are, but I got my limit on rod and reel easily each day from July 8th-20th while I was home from the slope. The numbers we've been getting simply make it harder for the people who don't have a clue.
    An unarmed man is subject, an armed man is a citizen.

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    Fished for a total of 6 hours at Bings over the weekend. Saw 3 fish caught... got skunked, though my wife got a 20" rainbow

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    webmaster Michael Strahan's Avatar
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    It's funny what a little data does to all of us. Since ADF&G started publishing sonar counts on the Kenai River, all manner of prophets, prognosticators, predictors and genies have come out of the bottle, each with their own magic formula for predicting "The Big Push" of second-run reds into the lower river. Some say it's the OTF (Offshore Test Fishery), others say there's no point fishing when "the nets are out" (commercial fishermen), others say it's got something to do with the tides, and some even say the wind blows them ashore. All make compelling arguments to support their predictions, and I think each of them has some elements of truth. This year, ALL of them were wrong.

    What's the bottom line? Nobody knows what's going on with the run until they cross the sonar line upriver. Statistically I can say that if you're dip netting the Kenai between July 15-25, you'll probably catch fish in "an average year". I think what caught the prognosticators with their pants down this year was that the run has not shown characteristics similar to recent years, and they were suckered in to trying to predict the ultimate unpredictable event; the movement of wild creatures that are influenced by a constellation of variables that we only partially understand.

    In each of the last four years prior to this one, there was a big surge of fish, followed by tapering numbers, then another fairly large push some days later. The most dramatic example was in 2012, when the run went from around 12,000 fish on July 11th, to over 200,000 on the 14th, then it dropped to 30-40,000 from the 18th-20th and surged again to over 110,000 on the 22nd. The most dramatic surge was last year; we went from just over 24K on the 14th to over 247K on the 16th. This year was radically different. The build of the run has been slow but steady, with no huge influx of fish yet.

    Will the run begin to taper off now, will it continue to build? Will August see a giant surge of reds into the Kenai? Or is it just a weaker run? Where are the fish? If you know the answers to any of these questions for certain, I'd like to chat with you about stock purchases.

    Here is a chart I slapped together, using ADF&G's numbers for the last five years, including this one. The chart starts on July 1 and ends on the 26th, which is the most recent date available for this year. The line for this year's run is the purple one.

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    Member Bullelkklr's Avatar
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    Fish and game will show a surge of sockeye soon, bringing the escapement into the bottom to middle end of the management plan.

    A lot of those reds will have spots on them and the flesh will not be a dark bright red color like you are used to seeing.

    Now, about those stock options......

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    Member ak_cowboy's Avatar
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    22.000 yesterday. I think it's over with

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  16. #16

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    A lady at work today told me she thinks there will be a big surge on the Kenai after July 31 has come and dip netting has ended. I asked her to put her "surge" number for a single day out there. She said at least one 100,000 count or greater day. We've got $25 on the line. I feel like I'm taking candy from a baby.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDipper View Post
    A lady at work today told me she thinks there will be a big surge on the Kenai after July 31 has come and dip netting has ended. I asked her to put her "surge" number for a single day out there. She said at least one 100,000 count or greater day. We've got $25 on the line. I feel like I'm taking candy from a baby.
    If that is true trust me, the mismanaged ADF&G will issue an EO opening it up to dipnetting again...they seem hellbent on ruining the Kenai sockeye runs...just look at the chinook run for proof.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDipper View Post
    A lady at work today told me she thinks there will be a big surge on the Kenai after July 31 has come and dip netting has ended. I asked her to put her "surge" number for a single day out there. She said at least one 100,000 count or greater day. We've got $25 on the line. I feel like I'm taking candy from a baby.
    Good choice betting on the moneyline instead of the spread.

    “By betting small moneyline underdogs instead of taking the same bets against the spread, you need to win a smaller percentage of bets to break even, because the return on investment is higher”

    Now your ready to step up to the high roller tables and bet on the King Counts!!!

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