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Thread: Reds Time to guess

  1. #1
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    Default Reds Time to guess

    Ok I predict big numbers hit the lower Keani Monday July 14th at 2pm sometimes I make a lucky guess anybody else care to predict when they will hit the riverhttp://forums.outdoorsdirectory.com/images/smilies/questionmark.gif

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    Tuesday morning at 3:45 am. But you have to be at just the "right" place on the river to hit it where I'm talking about.
    Your sarcasm is way, waaaayyyyyyyy more sarcastic than mine!

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    Come on doc we do this every year

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    Horrible wind pattern next two days... strong N-NE gale to 30 knots.... will NOT be conducive to mass movement of fish to the beach and on up the river. It's predicted to shift SE on Saturday, but what we really need is a sustained pattern of SW wind to drive the BIG push. Looks like we're gonna have to wait til next week for that to happen.

    That's not to say significant spurts of fish aren't making their way upriver. There was a good fishing in the lower river this morning. This one was landed about an hour ago just as the tide started flooding out the drift....

    DINNER!

    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    The KeenEye MD

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    Nice looking fish doc looks like a prefect hook set I'm going to try circle hooks this year

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    My prediction is the big push arrives Tuesday morning and the Comm fishers will use 18 hours straight of their 36 hours to take at least half of the fish coming in. No worries though, there will be a lot of other fish behind them. Hopefully this year isn't a 4 day run like it was last year.

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    Looking back at the previous 10 returns, the first major "push" has started anywhere from July 14 to July 22... half occurring before July 16 and half occurring after July 15.

    That push can range from a brief pulse of 3-4 days (2004) all the way to a protracted steady stream of fish for 2 weeks (2006) delivering anywhere from 0.35 to 1.2 million sockeye to the sonar. And that's after a full scale commercial/rec/PU fishery downstream of the counter!

    The productivity of the system is truly something to behold.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    The KeenEye MD

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    I'm going to make the prediction of Sunday july 13 mostly cause that's when I'll be down there and would like to see some numbers.

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    Default GET READY.... 'cuz here they come

    Tonight SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt toward morning. Seas 4 ft.
    Tue SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
    Tue Night SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
    Wed SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

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    The big push could start as early as late tonight, but more likely to begin late tomorrow morning. The river should be ALIVE w sockeye by tomorrow afternoon!
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

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    Hopefully its not like years past and one or two big days then nothing

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    I'm at my place and it's slow now I guess I was a day early I hope you're right doc

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    http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noa...melength=daily

    SW winds and a strong ebb late tonight will direct the plume of Kenai flow tight to the beach... a virtual magnet to draw the fish ashore. Once immersed in all that Kenai water, they commit and just GO GO GO... and nothing will stop them. Unless a fortunate gillnet dipnet or sport line happens to get in the way.

    If it doesn't happen tonight, we won't have much longer to wait.

    An even bigger ebb starts at 7am tomorrow, and it's another day deeper into that pattern of sustained SW winds.

    I would be beyond shocked if reds don't storm the river by tomorrow afternoon. The only thing that could screw it up is if the wind pattern falls apart. Keep your fingers crossed, game time is imminent!
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

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    Doc correct me if I'm wrong but don't we typically see numbers on the Kasilof high the day before the big push hits the Kenai. Is it because the river is further South or the counter is not so far up? If numbers peak on the Kasilof, I think you would be on the money

  15. #15

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    Fished 10 pm to 12:45 and can say the action for myself and others just kept growing throughout the night now only if I was better at tying up my gear!

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    Out right now and it is slooowwww not what I was expecting for today one fish three guys and not many hookups

  17. #17
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    Default Wind pattern subsiding somewhat

    • Today Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
    • Tonight SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
    • Wed Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Patchy morning fog.
    • Wed Night SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
    • Thu S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
    • Fri Through Sat S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.


    Still not counting out the afternoon surge with the flood today.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  18. #18

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    Out right now it's slow maybe one hookup per 1/2 hour for entire visible bank. Also they seem small the ones I've seen

  19. #19
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    Wind forecast updated less than an hour ago...


    • Tonight SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
    • Wed Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
    • Wed Night SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
    • Thu And Thu Night S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
    • Fri Through Sun SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  20. #20

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    Doc, you left us without your interpretation of what that wind forecast means. Based on what you said previously, are we now looking at tomorrow afternoon for a big push of fish?

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