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Thread: Forecast error and update on management

  1. #1
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    Default Forecast error and update on management

    Talked to staff today and the early run Kenai chinook forecast has been met at 1/3 of the way into the return. This is a perfect example of why forecast should not be used for management. They are historically poor and one reason the emergency order authority requires in-season information. Age composition data again shows a large percentage of small fish.

    The Guide Association met with staff (not sure if KRSA was present) and wants the netting program stopped in the Kenai because a few kings will be killed. This is just nonsense. There is no way to get a total count without the netting program. Even with all the flaws it is important to keep it going to see how it tracks the weir data. Without the netting program there is no age composition data or total return estimate (only fish larger than 750mm).

    The weirs run by the USFWS are in and operating - fire did not stop them.

    The ND escapement at Deshka is also doing well and the commercial fishery may go back to 12 hours for the next period. That is yet to be decided.

    The Kenai River early run may go to catch and release fishing because of the strength of the return. If that happens Kasilof PU fishery may not be restricted.

    The Anchor River is closed to king salmon fishing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    The Guide Association met with staff (not sure if KRSA was present) and wants the netting program stopped in the Kenai because a few kings will be killed. This is just nonsense. There is no way to get a total count without the netting program. Even with all the flaws it is important to keep it going to see how it tracks the weir data. Without the netting program there is no age composition data or total return estimate (only fish larger than 750mm).
    Yes, but this will result in a total count which excludes a bunch of small kings that make up a large percentage of the run, and an even larger percentage of the ESSN King harvest. So they would prefer that we count these small kings (as we currently do) when harvested in the ESSN nets, but not count them in the river. And they would prefer, despite the fact that we have an obvious age problem likely linked to the targeted trophy king fishery, that we stop paying attention to age completely?

    Hmmmm. Not hard to see the motivation there...

    I'm sure it's because they feel that nets are an "outdated" method of catching fish. As if a hook and string are recent developments...

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    The Guide Association met with staff (not sure if KRSA was present) and wants the netting program stopped in the Kenai because a few kings will be killed. This is just nonsense. There is no way to get a total count without the netting program. Even with all the flaws it is important to keep it going to see how it tracks the weir data. Without the netting program there is no age composition data or total return estimate (only fish larger than 750mm).
    How many is a few? Do we know what the mortality rate on the netting program is?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye Charlie View Post
    How many is a few? Do we know what the mortality rate on the netting program is?
    Not sure of exact numbers but even if it was 100 that would be insignificant relative to the number of fish in the river and data that is gained.

    tbsmith - they increased the netting program so at this point do not have any data to say whether they are representing the age composition or not. So we need to let this play out this year. I understand you comment on motives of those who just want a large fish goal.

    A number of people are over the top on this chinook issue, including some in the Department and Board of Fish. We are talking about MSY goals not some threshold of extinction. Also, it makes no sense to curtail a stock assessment program when you are trying to develop it for long term monitoring. Sometimes a few chinook can be killed for development of these programs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    ...The Guide Association met with staff (not sure if KRSA was present) and wants the netting program stopped in the Kenai because a few kings will be killed. This is just nonsense. ...
    If it were me, I wouldn't put to much stock in something that I heard third hand.

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    I sure would not put any trust in what you say Bfish. You have a proven track record of misinformation and bias reports.

    However, this came directly from ADF&G staff and the meeting was at the Soldotna office. If you want to dispute it then provide some data to show it is wrong and it is not the messenger but the ADF&G staff you would be questioning.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bfish View Post
    If it were me, I wouldn't put to much stock in something that I heard third hand.
    It took longer for you to slam him that it would have taken to verify this simple issue to be true or false. Doesn't seem to be Nerka that is misrepresenting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bfish View Post
    If it were me, I wouldn't put to much stock in something that I heard third hand.
    What Family Man said. You could have confirmed or denied it - you obviously know if that's the play or not. Again, thanks for the lack of any meaningful contribution. Oh wait, I forgot - we can't "afford" you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post

    The Kenai River early run may go to catch and release fishing because of the strength of the return.
    Really? When we are so darned concerned about the fishery, why in the hell can't they just leave them alone for a year. Is that just too much to ask..???!!! To me that's just saying they're NOT that concerned........sheesh...!!!
    Sheep hunting...... the pain goes away, but the stupidity remains...!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by 4merguide View Post
    Really? When we are so darned concerned about the fishery, why in the hell can't they just leave them alone for a year. Is that just too much to ask..???!!! To me that's just saying they're NOT that concerned........sheesh...!!!

    Plus one.... At least so far. Anyone else?
    Your sarcasm is way, waaaayyyyyyyy more sarcastic than mine!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    The Guide Association met with staff (not sure if KRSA was present) and wants the netting program stopped in the Kenai because a few kings will be killed. This is just nonsense. There is no way to get a total count without the netting program. Even with all the flaws it is important to keep it going to see how it tracks the weir data. Without the netting program there is no age composition data or total return estimate (only fish larger than 750mm).



    .
    Better find a better source with F&G because they gave you bad information.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    Better find a better source with F&G because they gave you bad information.
    I will recheck with them and see if it was bad or not.

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    Better find a better source with F&G because they gave you bad information.
    That would be excellent news. I support a large fish goal, but mainly because it puts MORE emphasis on age/size, not less. Knowing the size/age comp of the run - especially on the WORLD-CLASS TROPHY Kenai, as many have billed it - is such important information I don't know how anyone who benefits from these runs, (as opposed to some who only benefit from saying what certain organizations pay them to) would want to give up on obtaining it as accurately as possible.

    How would you establish or maintain a large fish goal if you had no clue what percentage of the total run those large fish constitute?

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    +1 to former also.

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