Alaska - Pacific River Forecast Center

River Breakup Map

SRAK48 PACR 011444
ACRRVAAK
AKZALL-300000-

ALASKA SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
3 PM ADT THU MAY 01 2014

...SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR ALASKA...

FLOOD WARNING/WATCHES:
NONE

THE SPRING BREAKUP FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY RATED AS LOW TO
LOW-MODERATE STATEWIDE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON OBSERVED
SNOWPACK... ICE THICKNESS REPORTS... MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS... AND OBSERVATIONS OF THE
RIVER WATCH TEAMS AND VOLUNTEERS ALONG THE RIVERS. CURRENTLY BREAKUP
AT MOST LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DAYS TO WEEKS EARLIER
THAN NORMAL.


ICE - APRIL ICE THICKNESS DATA ARE AVAILABLE FOR A LIMITED NUMBER OF
OBSERVING SITES IN ALASKA. APRIL 1ST MEASUREMENTS INDICATED THAT ICE
THICKNESS WAS VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE... WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 48 AND 122 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE TANANA
BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL THICKNESS. ICE THICKNESS ON THE NORTH
SLOPE...WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WAS BELOW NORMAL. ICE
THICKNESS ON THE YUKON RIVER RANGED FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT EAGLE TO
BELOW NORMAL ON THE LOWER YUKON. EAGLE REPORTED 50 INCHES OF ICE ON
APRIL 23.

SNOW - THE APRIL 1 SNOWPACK ANALYSIS SHOWED ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN ALASKA... NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST... NORMAL IN
INTERIOR ALASKA... AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE CANADIAN YUKON.
SNOW MONITORING SITES IN THE CANADIAN YUKON REPORTED 100-130% OF
NORMAL. SOUTHCENTRAL AND WESTERN ALASKA REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
SNOWPACK... WITH LESS THAN 50% OF NORMAL IN THE KUSKOKWIM BASIN AND
THE LOWER YUKON. WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF APRIL HAVE
CAUSED SNOWPACKS TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SNOWPACK.. PLEASE REFER TO THE VARIOUS SNOW
GRAPH OPTIONS AT THE APRFC WEB SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV OR ON
THE NRCS WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/CGIBIN/...L?STATE=ALASKA

WEATHER - FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE FOR NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE STATE. APRIL TEMPERATURES IN
WESTERN ALASKA ARE ON PACE TO PLACE IN THE TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THIS YEARS
BREAKUP PROCESS.

OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR DAYS 6-14 INDICATE A
VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE OUTLOOKS FOR THIS SPRING PLEASE REFER TO
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/


************************************************** *******************
*EVEN THOUGH A PARTICULAR RIVER OR REACH MAY BE DESCRIBED AS MOSTLY *
*OPEN OR OPEN... IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR RUNS OF ICE AND DEBRIS TO *
*MOVE THROUGH AS HEADWATERS UPSTREAM BREAKUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION AT*
*ALL TIMES WHEN ATTEMPTING TO NAVIGATE RIVERS. *
************************************************** *******************

RECENT BREAKUP ACTIVITY:

SUSITNA RIVER..
MOSTLY ICE COVERED WITH SOME LIFTING AND OPEN LEADS BEGINNING TO FORM.
SOME ICE MOVEMENT AND MINOR ICE JAMMING REPORTED NEAR DESHKA LANDING.

TANANA RIVER..
ICE MOVED OUT THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE CHISANA RIVER IN THE NORTHWAY
AREA. THE TANANA RIVER AT NENANA MOVED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON APRIL
25TH. ICE AT THE SALCHA RIVER MOVED OUT ON THE 26TH... AT FAIRBANKS
ON THE 29TH AND AT MANLEY ON THE EVENING OF THE 29TH. REPORTS FROM
DOWNRIVER CONTINUE TO INDICATE DETERIORATING ICE CONDITIONS NEAR
THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE YUKON RIVER.

SKWENTNA RIVER...
THE OBSERVER REPORTS THAT THE RIVER IS NOT SAFE FOR TRAVEL DUE TO
DETERIORATING ICE CONDITIONS. THE ICE WENT OUT AT SKWENTNA ON APRIL
29TH.

COPPER RIVER.. BREAKUP OF THE GULKANA RIVER AT GULKANA OCCURRED ON
FRIDAY APRIL 25TH. THE MINOR ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE FROM HAS
CLEARED STRANDING SOME CAKE ICE. THE GAKONA RIVER WENT OUT ON APRIL 30TH
WHILE THE MINOR ICE JAM JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE RELEASED AND
STRANDED CAKE ICE ALONG THE BANKS. THE COPPER RIVER AT GULKANA HAS
OPEN CHANNELS WITH MINOR ICE JAMMING.


YENTNA RIVER..
LAKE CREEK HAS AN OPEN CHANNEL AT THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE YENTNA RIVER...
THE YENTNA RIVER REMAINS ICE COVERED.

YUKON RIVER.. KOYUKUK..
ICE IS DETERIORATING ALONG MOST OF THE LENGTH OF THE YUKON RIVER... BUT
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICE MOVEMENT ANYWHERE. YUKON RIVER ICE FROM
EAGLE TO CANADIAN BORDER REMAINS IN PLACE BUT IS CONTINUING TO ROT
IN PLACE. THE YUKON RIVER LEVEL AT EAGLE REMAINS SEVERAL FEET BELOW
THE BASE OF SHEET PILE WALL. UPSTREAM FROM EAGLE... THE FORTYMILE
RIVER IS OPEN. THE KLONDIKE RIVER CLEARED OU THE ICE AT THE
MOUTH... BUT HAS NOT PROVIDED SUFFICIENT WATER TO BREAK THE ICE ON
THE YUKON. THERE IS A SMALL OPEN LEAD SEVERAL MILES DOWNSTREAM FROM
DAWSON WITH SIGNS OF SOME ICE MOVEMENT. DOWNSTREAM FROM EAGLE THE
MOST NOTEWORTHY ACTION IS SOME SHIFTING OF ICE WITH DISCONTINUOUS
OPEN LEADS BETWEEN THE NATIONS AND CHARLEY RIVERS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CHARLEY RIVER THE ICE IS SOLID BUT SLOWLY ROTTING. FROM THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE TANANA TO GALENA WATER LEVELS ARE VERY LOW WITH ICE UNBROKEN BUT
ROTTING IN PLACE.


KUSKOKWIM RIVER..
THE ICE WENT OUT AT NIKOLAI ON APRIL 22. DOWNRIVER AT MCGRATH THE TRIPOD
TRIPPED ON THE AFTERNOON OF 5/01 AND HAD DRIFTED 2 MILES DOWNSTREAM BY
NIGHTFALL. SHEETS AND PANS HAVE SHIFTED AT RED DEVIL AND CROOKED CREEK
AND ICE WAS RUNNING IN FRONT OF ANIAK ALL NIGHT ON THE 30TH.
DOWNSTREAM THERE WAS A SHIFTED SHEET NEAR UPPER KALSKAG THAT LEFT
ABOUT 1/2 MILE OPEN LEAD. THE ICE AT KALSKAG BROKE UP ON THE 30TH
BUT ICE REMAINS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW KALSKAG. ICE IS DETERIORATING
ON MOST OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER... AND TRIBUTARIES LIKE THE KWETHLUK
RIVER ARE MOSTLY OPEN. THE ANIAK RIVER AND ANIAK SLOUGH APPEAR TO BE
OPEN NEAR THE CONFLUENCE. THE STONY RIVER WAS REPORTED OPEN FROM ITS
MOUTH UPSTREAM TO LIME VILLAGE... 74 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE MOUTH.


THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES AN ESTIMATION OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE AND BASIN RUNOFF VOLUMES.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOWMELT RUNOFF VOLUME...EXPECTED WATER VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT DURING
THE MELT SEASON.

FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT AND/OR
ICE JAMS.

* AVERAGE BREAKUP DATES ARE FOR THE PERIOD 1980 THROUGH 2013 AND ARE
CALCULATED FOR LOCATIONS WITH AT LEAST 5 YEARS OF DATA.
** ACTUAL BREAKUP DATE FOR THIS YEAR
---------------------------------------------------------------------

SNOWMELT FLOOD AVERAGE NO. OF FORECAST
RIVER - REACH RUNOFF POTENTIAL BREAKUP YEARS BREAKUP
VOLUME DATE * RECORD DATE
------------- ---------- --------- ------- ------ --------
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE

KENAI RIVER

ANCHOR RIVER BELOW AVERAGE LOW 04/13 10 04/17**

MATANUSKA RIVER BELOW AVERAGE 04/30 8 04/18**
SUSITNA RIVER LOW
GOLD CREEK LOW 05/03 7 05/01-05/03
SUNSHINE LOW 05/01 25 05/01-05/02

YENTNA RIVER BELOW AVERAGE
LAKE CREEK LOW 05/01 23 05/01**

SKWENTNA RIVER BELOW AVERAGE
SKWENTNA LOW 05/01 19 04/29**

COPPER RIVER BASIN AVERAGE
GAKONA RVR @ HWY LOW 05/01 26 04/30**
GULKANA RVR @ HWY LOW 04/30 25 04/25**

CHENA RIVER AVERAGE
CHENA LAKES PROJECT
FAIRBANKS LOW 04/26 22 04/22**

TANANA RIVER AVERAGE
NORTHWAY LOW 04/26 26 04/24**
SALCHA LOW-MOD 04/26**
FAIRBANKS LOW 04/30 15 04/29**
NENANA LOW 05/01 31 04/25**
MANLEY LOW 05/04 24 04/29**

KUSKOKWIM RIVER BELOW AVERAGE
NIKOLAI LOW 04/24 28 04/21**
MCGRATH LOW 05/07 34 04/30**
STONY RIVER LOW 05/06 26 05/01-05/06
SLEETMUTE LOW 05/05 25 05/01**
RED DEVIL LOW 05/07 28 05/01**
CROOKED CREEK LOW 05/07 28 05/01-05/07
ANIAK LOW 05/08 31 05/01**
KALSKAG LOW 05/08 25 04/30**
TULUKSAK LOW 05/10 22 05/03-05/10
AKIAK LOW 05/11 28 05/04-05/11
KWETHLUK LOW-MOD
BETHEL LOW 05/12 33 05/04-05/11
NAPAKIAK LOW 05/14 20 05/06-05/13

YUKON RIVER (UPPER) AVERAGE
DAWSON, YT 05/05 34 05/01-05/04
EAGLE LOW-MOD 05/05 32 05/01-05/04
CIRCLE LOW-MOD 05/10 30 05/02-05/08
FORT YUKON LOW 05/11 30 05/04-05/10
BEAVER LOW 05/11 18 05/04-05/10
STEVENS VILLAGE LOW-MOD 05/12 17 05/05-05/11
RAMPART LOW 05/12 19 05/05-05/11

YUKON RIVER (MIDDLE) AVERAGE
TANANA LOW-MOD 05/10 29 05/03-05/09
RUBY LOW 05/12 28 05/05-05/11
GALENA LOW-MOD 05/13 33 05/06-05/12
KOYUKUK LOW-MOD 05/14 9 05/07-05/13
NULATO LOW-MOD 05/13 18 05/06-05/12
KALTAG LOW 05/14 28 05/07-05/13
ANVIK LOW 05/17 27 05/09-05/16

YUKON RIVER (LOWER) AVERAGE
HOLY CROSS LOW 05/16 27 05/09-05/15
RUSSIAN MISSION LOW 05/16 28 05/09-05/15
MARSHALL LOW 05/17 22 05/10-05/16
PILOT STATION LOW 05/18 17 05/11-05/17
MOUNTAIN VILLAGE LOW 05/19 27 05/12-05/18
ALAKANUK/EMMONAK LOW-MOD 05/23 29 05/16-05/22

KOYUKUK RIVER AVERAGE
BETTLES LOW 05/10 31 05/03-05/09
ALLAKAKET LOW 05/11 28 05/04-05/10
HUGHES LOW-MOD 05/11 27 05/05-05/11

SEWARD PENINSULA
BUCKLAND RIVER
BUCKLAND LOW-MOD 05/19 24 05/05-05/12

KOBUK RIVER
KOBUK LOW-MOD 05/17 30 05/11-05/17
SHUNGNAK LOW 05/18 24 05/12-05/18
AMBLER LOW 05/19 30 05/13-05/19

NOATAK RIVER ABOVE AVERAGE
NOATAK LOW 05/20 19 05/14-05/20

BROOKS RANGE - NORTH ABOVE AVERAGE
COLVILLE @ UMIAT LOW 05/25 15 05/19-05/26
COLVILLE @ COLVILLE LOW-MOD 06/01 17 05/25-06/02

FOR MORE DETAIL AND TO SEE A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAP REFER TO OUR WEB
SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

THE NEXT SPRING BREAKUP OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED AT 3 PM ADT FRIDAY
MAY 2 2014.

$$
RAR