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Thread: Early Run Chinook Closed in the Kenai

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    Default Early Run Chinook Closed in the Kenai

    ADF&G just issued a news release saying that the early run Kenai River chinook is closed for the 2014 season.
    EXPLANATION:
    This emergency order closes the Kenai River to sport fishing for early-run king salmon. The Kenai River will be closed to sport fishing for king salmon from the mouth upstream to the outlet of Skilak Lake and in the Moose River from its confluence with the Kenai River upstream to the northernmost edge of the Sterling Highway bridge beginning at 12:01 a.m., Thursday, May 1, through 11:59 p.m., Monday, June 30, 2014. Sport fishing for king salmon will remain closed from 12:01 a.m., Tuesday, July 1 through 11:59 p.m., Thursday, July 31, 2014 in waters of the Kenai River drainage from an ADF&G regulatory marker located approximately 300 yards downstream from the mouth of Slikok Creek, upstream to the outlet of Skilak Lake, and in the Moose River from its confluence with the Kenai River upstream to the northernmost edge of the Sterling Highway bridge. This closure prohibits all sport fishing for king salmon, including catch-and-release fishing. King salmon may not be retained or possessed; king salmon accidentally caught while fishing for other species may not be removed from the water and must be released immediately.
    REGULATION

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    *jaw drop*

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    Better late than never. Shoulda been closed the last 10 years



    Release Lake Trout

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    Default Give them a round of applause!

    Conservation at last.

    Need to hold their feet to the fire to make sure ER exploitation is minimized when the fishery opens for LR king on July 1.
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    Wonder what the contingency plan is for Kasilof
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    "The outlook for the early run of Kenai River Chinook salmon in 2014 is well below average, with a forecast total run of approximately 2,230 fish. If realized, this run will rank the 2nd lowest measured (28th out of 29 years), be nearly identical in abundance to the run of 2013 (approximately 2,150), and be about one-sixth the 1986–2013 average run of approximately 13,500 fish. The 2014 forecasted run is well below the optimum escapement goal (OEG) of 5,300 to 9,000 fish.

    The forecast of total run is calculated from the sum of individual age-specific forecasts of abundance for fish ages 3 to 7. All of the selected run forecasts by age for 2014 are in the hundreds, when in all years except for 2013, 2 – 3 of these age classes would individually realize runs in the thousands. Forecast abundance for each age class (Table 1) was calculated from several models based on relationships between adult returns or siblings from previous years (Table 2). The model estimates selected for each age class for inclusion in the 2014 forecast were those that had the minimum mean absolute percent error (MAPE) in 2009 – 2012 hindcasts of forecasts, and the 2013 forecast, as compared to the actual runs in those years. Most forecast models are chosen based on MAPE (from hindcasts going back 3 to 5 years), as it typically provides forecasts that are closest to the actual run (best accuracy). Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean percent error (MPE) were also used to evaluate accuracy and precision (respectively) between hindcasts and actual runs of the previous five years.

    For age-3 fish, the 5-year mean forecast estimate was selected (a run of 279 fish). Fewer models can forecast abundance for this age class as there are no prior sibling returns to provide insights. The maximum number of fish observed in this age has been ~600 fish; hence typically this has a small contribution to the run and run forecast.

    For age-4 fish, the median was selected (a run of 950 fish). This is approximately twice the number that returned in 2012 and 2013, and less than one-half of the number that returned in 2011.
    The 5-year mean sibling model was used to forecast the number of age-5 fish, for a forecast of 701 fish. This is approximately 120 fish more than the historic low in 2013, and is approximately one-fifth of the historical mean.

    Age-6 fish are usually the predominant age class for early-run Kenai River Chinook salmon. The most recent sibling model is considered the best estimate for this age class for 2014, a forecast of only 288 fish. This forecast of age-6 fish is less than 5% of the historical mean and less than 10% of the mean for the previous 5 years, which were also very low.


    For age-7 fish, the recent sibling model was selected, and forecast a run of 16 fish in 2014. If realized, this would also be an historic low for this age class, along with the age-6 fish.

    There is some uncertainty in the 2014 forecast estimate. The 2013 forecast was for a total run of approximately 5,330 fish while the preliminary estimated total run is approximately 2,150 fish, less than one-half the forecast. Probably the best way to consider this salmon forecast is in terms of 3 broad categories: approximately average run, below average run or above average run. Clearly the 2014 forecast gives the expectation of a run in the below average category."


    Nothing web-posted yet, but I got an inquiry into ADFG to see if either sonar counted any kings on the inaugural day of counting last Friday
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    So why is the educational fisheries still fishing? They have been taking kings at the mouth of the Kenai River, Kasilof River, and points sounth since May 1. Maybe someone should ask the Department. I know the answer. The Native tribe fisheries are pseudo subsistence fisheries and the Department is afraid to close them. They take more chinook than a catch and release fishery in the Kenai would kill.

    Heard today that they may close at end of month so they have a fishery but politically is looks better to close in June.

    I think an outpouring of letters and phone calls to the Commissioner is needed.

    Just for the record I do not think this e.o is any better than the ND e.o legally but if they are going to do it they need to stop playing games with the educational fisheries. These fisheries have no allocation, have alternative resources in July or August, and thus should be the first to close not last.

    Aktally, maybe you can explain this to the public - taking bets we will not hear a word.

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    Any harvest numbers on this fishery, Nerka?

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    I believe over a 100 chinook in one fishery alone but not sure where that was or year - I will check this out more. There are I believe 8 educational fisheries. The Kasilof Historical Society has one and it can fish, the Ninilchik Fire Department, the local K. Tribe, one on the ND eastside and not sure of the rest.

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    Is there a F&G cost recovery fishery in June? I know there was an uproar a few years ago when F&G contracted a set netter who fished it close to the Kenai in June when the in-river fishery was either closed or restricted. I am not sure if any changes were made after that year. I think it was 2011 or so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post

    Nothing web-posted yet, but I got an inquiry into ADFG to see if either sonar counted any kings on the inaugural day of counting last Friday

    Got a reply back.
    These are the numbers reported for kings 75 cm (29.5 inches) or greater

    5/16 = 6
    5/17 = 6
    5/18 = 0
    5/19 = 12

    They should post to the ADFG website tomorrow.

    .
    .
    .


    From prior conversations, I believe the counting algorithm is to ensonify one bank for 20 minutes, ensonify the opposite bank for 20 minutes, then analyze data for 20 minutes. Each ensonified target that meets the minimum threshold becomes part if the statistical sample which is then expanded by a factor of three to get the full count for that hour. So in other words, a count of 6 kings really means the sonar only saw 2 actual kings all day.
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    Quote Originally Posted by yukon View Post
    Is there a F&G cost recovery fishery in June? I know there was an uproar a few years ago when F&G contracted a set netter who fished it close to the Kenai in June when the in-river fishery was either closed or restricted. I am not sure if any changes were made after that year. I think it was 2011 or so.
    Yeah, the one that Channel 2 had on the news as "in the mouth of the Kenai river". Pretty sure the cost recovery fishery is a thing of the past. Apparently we don't need it anymore - our legislature has money to spare

    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    I believe over a 100 chinook in one fishery alone but not sure where that was or year - I will check this out more. There are I believe 8 educational fisheries. The Kasilof Historical Society has one and it can fish, the Ninilchik Fire Department, the local K. Tribe, one on the ND eastside and not sure of the rest.
    Speaking of, I noticed that the Kenaitze operation now consists of 3 nets just south of the Kenai. Is that new? I only ever remember 1. Could have missed the others previously though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smithtb View Post
    Yeah, the one that Channel 2 had on the news as "in the mouth of the Kenai river". Pretty sure the cost recovery fishery is a thing of the past. Apparently we don't need it anymore - our legislature has money to spare



    Speaking of, I noticed that the Kenaitze operation now consists of 3 nets just south of the Kenai. Is that new? I only ever remember 1. Could have missed the others previously though.
    People should be yelling about this but I am tired of being the one who writes the Commissioner.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    Got a reply back.
    These are the numbers reported for kings 75 cm (29.5 inches) or greater

    5/16 = 6
    5/17 = 6
    5/18 = 0
    5/19 = 12

    They should post to the ADFG website tomorrow.
    Well it's tomorrow…. and it's up on the ADFG website.

    Looks like they re-assessed the number of threshold targets ensonified. The new and improved numbers look like this:

    5/16 = 6
    5/17 = 12
    5/18 = 12
    5/19 = 24
    5/20 = 42

    So far tracking a smidge better than 2013, but considerably behind 2012 and 2011.

    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/sf/FishCo...ook#/estimates
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    Now you see them now you don't. Are the new numbers due to what is not counted directly (time, counting area, size correction) or some other correction that is new this year. The first set of numbers if published should have had the corrections. More examples of why this sonar program is a failure. Remember last year counts of 2000 when 5000 went in the river. That may not be significant last year since the total run was still low. However, it is significant if the count is 7,000 and actions are taken and the real escapement is 14,000. Lots of people hurt by the lower count if wrong.

    Bfish, not commercial harvest orientation here but wanting to see sport fisheries have opportunity if it exists.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    Now you see them now you don't. Are the new numbers due to what is not counted directly (time, counting area, size correction) or some other correction that is new this year. The first set of numbers if published should have had the corrections. More examples of why this sonar program is a failure.
    My apologies. The second set of numbers are indeed correct, but they reflect CUMULATIVE counts.

    The daily counts stand at

    5/16 = 6, cum 6
    5/17 = 6, cum 12
    5/18 = 0, cum 12
    5/19 = 12, cum 24
    5/20 = 18, cum 42

    Again, my bad… sorry for the confusion, folks.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    So why is the educational fisheries still fishing? They have been taking kings at the mouth of the Kenai River, Kasilof River, and points sounth since May 1. Maybe someone should ask the Department. I know the answer. The Native tribe fisheries are pseudo subsistence fisheries and the Department is afraid to close them. They take more chinook than a catch and release fishery in the Kenai would kill.

    Heard today that they may close at end of month so they have a fishery but politically is looks better to close in June.

    I think an outpouring of letters and phone calls to the Commissioner is needed.

    Just for the record I do not think this e.o is any better than the ND e.o legally but if they are going to do it they need to stop playing games with the educational fisheries. These fisheries have no allocation, have alternative resources in July or August, and thus should be the first to close not last.

    Aktally, maybe you can explain this to the public - taking bets we will not hear a word.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    I believe over a 100 chinook in one fishery alone but not sure where that was or year - I will check this out more. There are I believe 8 educational fisheries. The Kasilof Historical Society has one and it can fish, the Ninilchik Fire Department, the local K. Tribe, one on the ND eastside and not sure of the rest.
    For the sake of a factual mutual understanding of the educational fishery(-ies)….

    The historic harvest levels can be found in the recent management reports:
    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/FedAidPDFs/FMR13-51.pdf
    Tables 29-31

    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/FedAidPDFs/FMR13-42.pdf
    Tables 43-47

    All of the Kenai Peninsula educational fisheries are under reduced limits and gear/season restrictions.
    The Kenaitze permit only allows a single 10 fathom, 45" mesh deep, 6" stretched mesh net in the marine waters. The inriver net is not allowed. Reported harvest through the 16th is zero king salmon. Last year they harvested 11 king salmon during the early run fishery and 8 king salmon during the late run fishery. They have a 50 king harvest limit. They do not want to catch any king salmon and will release any king salmon that still alive.

    The permit information (quotas, restrictions, etc) for the Ninilchik area educational fisheries are contained within the linked report. They have entered their closed period (May 21-June 14) and have a reported harvest of 38 kings through the 18th. Keep in mind, management of those fisheries are tied to management of the lower Kenai Peninsula streams where they are still able to sport fish.


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    Quote Originally Posted by smithtb View Post
    Speaking of, I noticed that the Kenaitze operation now consists of 3 nets just south of the Kenai. Is that new? I only ever remember 1. Could have missed the others previously though.
    I think the misperception on the three nets is due to the fact that the Kenaitze's have running lines at three different locations on the beach, but they can only fish one location at a time. They've tried two of the locations so far.
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    But the issue is that they are harvesting fish. No one else is harvesting a chinook. The educational fisheries should be the lowest priority. They are not subsistence fisheries. The Idea of releasing a chinook from their net is silly.- not they said if alive. Easy to kill them - just do not pick the net when the fish hits. Also, what else are they catching this time of year - Russian River sockeye - not in early to mid May.

    If they can fish then the sport fishery should be catch and release. The sport fishery would probably kill less fish. This is political bull by ADF&G

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerka View Post
    But the issue is that they are harvesting fish. No one else is harvesting a chinook. The educational fisheries should be the lowest priority. They are not subsistence fisheries. The Idea of releasing a chinook from their net is silly.- not they said if alive. Easy to kill them - just do not pick the net when the fish hits. Also, what else are they catching this time of year - Russian River sockeye - not in early to mid May.
    If they can fish then the sport fishery should be catch and release. The sport fishery would probably kill less fish. This is political bull by ADF&G
    Hmmmm. Should I pull the race card on Nerka.... Or Fish n Game?
    Your sarcasm is way, waaaayyyyyyyy more sarcastic than mine!

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