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Thread: The great .22lr shortage of 2013-2014

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    Member Alangaq's Avatar
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    Default The great .22lr shortage of 2013-2014

    found this interesting tid bit on the web but have not been able to verify the accuracy of the production numbers given.


    “Take for example .22LR ammunition. The industry as a whole (all manufacturers combined) is setup to produce 4,200,000,000 (4.2 Billions) .22 LR annually. That is running all the machines, full capacity all the time, all manufacturers together. There is NOTHING they can do to produce more.
    That corresponds to 230,137 cartridge per State per day, which is 460 bricks of 500 .22lr per day per State. That means that if less than 50 people per day in each State are buying 10 bricks of .22, it is enough to dry up the entire supply as it is being manufactured.”

    Assuming that those numbers are somewhat accurate; I would also point out that it is highly unlikely that each state receives an equal amount of .22LR, and I suspect that Alaska, given our relatively low population numbers combined with complicated and over regulated supply chain, probably receives far less than that quoted above. Not good news for those of us that would like to see retailers catch up and be able to provide more inventory to the public.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alangaq View Post
    found this interesting tid bit on the web but have not been able to verify the accuracy of the production numbers given.


    “Take for example .22LR ammunition. The industry as a whole (all manufacturers combined) is setup to produce 4,200,000,000 (4.2 Billions) .22 LR annually. That is running all the machines, full capacity all the time, all manufacturers together. There is NOTHING they can do to produce more.
    That corresponds to 230,137 cartridge per State per day, which is 460 bricks of 500 .22lr per day per State. That means that if less than 50 people per day in each State are buying 10 bricks of .22, it is enough to dry up the entire supply as it is being manufactured.”

    Assuming that those numbers are somewhat accurate; I would also point out that it is highly unlikely that each state receives an equal amount of .22LR, and I suspect that Alaska, given our relatively low population numbers combined with complicated and over regulated supply chain, probably receives far less than that quoted above. Not good news for those of us that would like to see retailers catch up and be able to provide more inventory to the public.

    Hmmm.... You could be on to something..... I know when I was in lewiston idaho I spoke with a few people I know who work at the CCI factory, and they said they had to slow down production on .22s while waiting for more materials and also to catch up on other orders that they frequently get behind on? There was not exactly a shortage of it in the area if you looked in the right places.



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    Even if the #s aren't perfect, it illustrates how a sharp change in demand can effect the supply chain.


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    Another "Craze" that's going on in the lower 48 that's eating-up a lot of the .22 ammo supply, as "Quoted" from a friend of mine that was just at the "Shot Show" and got this info: from several Major Ammo Manufactures,----- "The Bug-Out Craze" what the F*** is this all about,,,,,,,,,????? talk about "Drinking" the Cool-aid,,,, So those rep's told him these people were not just buying "Bricks" but "Cases" multiple cases, like 10-15 +, go figure, "NO" wonder we can't find any ammo, anyway, thought i'd share this with you guy's.
    The German

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    Quote Originally Posted by The German View Post
    "The Bug-Out Craze" what the F*** is this all about,,,,,,,,,?????
    It's about people who think the movie "Red Dawn" was a documentary. When the apocalypse comes, they're going to run away and survive in a hole somewhere with their hoard of .22LR.

    Quote Originally Posted by limon32 View Post
    Even if the #s aren't perfect, it illustrates how a sharp change in demand can effect the supply chain.
    Bingo. ...And all we can do is wait until the crazies calm down again so the supply can catch up.
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    Some of them think the 22LR will be able to be used for trading material for food or fuel. What a joke.

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    On a related note, and also more unverified data, but I personally trust the source and think it is credible; explained to me that our current powder shortage is due in large part to changes that were made to the hazardous materials regulations back in 2009, that limit the amount of gun powder that can be shipped per barge to 400 lbs total. my source also went on to claim that currently only 2 barges arrive in the port of Anchorage each week, so that makes 800 lbs of powder, per week for the entire state (again, this is his data, not mine) which if true, goes a long way to explaining our current lack of product on the retailers' shelves.

    Let's for a moment assume that this scenario is true and accurate, and imagine 800 individual one pound containers of gun powder being distributed throughout the entire state.. Anchorage, Fairbanks, Bethel, Palmer, Wasilla, Kenia, Homer etc. etc. and its not hard to see that the 10 to 20 lbs getting dropped off at any one retailer, say Sporty's for example, is going to get snagged up pretty quick. Probably within the first day or two of hitting the shelves, and then that's it... nothing for another week, and the cycle repeats... Now, is this really how it works? I honestly don’t know as I am not in the barge business, nor the gun powder distribution business, but it does seem plausible, and worrisome...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerberman View Post
    Some of them think the 22LR will be able to be used for trading material for food or fuel. What a joke.
    As much as I like the work of Jeff Cooper… he published an article entitled "Ballistic Wampum" that espoused that exact notion. I've read/heard similar stuff for several decades but not out of anyone else approaching his reputation or clout. I've got to admit- I find the whole bit more than a little fanciful as most semi-populated areas will easily run out of game before folks run out of ammo.

    Apparently the notion has been embraced with vigor however.

    But oddly enough- .22LR is difficult as heck to find but shotgun shells (an arguably much more useful meat procurer, home defense article and just as common arm in general circulation) were never difficult to find-even at the height of the recent madness. I'm thinking its more fear than logic based.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alangaq View Post
    ...but it does seem plausible, and worrisome...
    Plausible yes, but predicated upon there being supply to put on a barge in the first place. Before we can place an order to be put on a barge we have to compete with the L-48 market for supply, and so far I'm not seeing much of anything available to order...

    Quote Originally Posted by hodgeman View Post
    ...I'm thinking its more fear than logic based.
    Ya think?
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    Quote Originally Posted by iofthetaiga View Post
    It's about people who think the movie "Red Dawn" was a documentary. When the apocalypse comes, they're going to run away and survive in a hole somewhere with their hoard of .22LR.

    Bingo. ...And all we can do is wait until the crazies calm down again so the supply can catch up.
    National Geographic Channel's Doomsday Preppers sure didn't help. Even Brownells is selling "survival/prepper" gear.

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    I have traded quite a bit of ammo for other items and services. The gunsmith I use likes 375H&H and I happen to have a bunch that I bought really cheap several years ago that I have no use for, (sold the rifle), so we trade 'smithing for ammo. We both win.

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    I have not seen anything available on line either, however I was in Nebraska for Thanksgiving and visited Cabela's, Bass Pro, Sheels and Guns Unlimited. Each of which had fully stocked supplies of powder and primers, although some seemed to stock more than others. The amount of powder in Guns Unlimited was SHOCKING... every kind of powder I had ever heard of, and many that I had never seen before. They even had all of the Norma powders, and everything the guy had, was loaded 4 deep on the shelves, with 8 pounders on the bottom shelf... frustrating to say the least, and to top it off, most powders were running under $20 per pound.
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    When the 4 leggers get kilt off, move on to the edible 2 leggers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alangaq View Post
    I have not seen anything available on line either, however I was in Nebraska for Thanksgiving and visited Cabela's, Bass Pro, Sheels and Guns Unlimited. Each of which had fully stocked supplies of powder and primers, although some seemed to stock more than others. The amount of powder in Guns Unlimited was SHOCKING... every kind of powder I had ever heard of, and many that I had never seen before. They even had all of the Norma powders, and everything the guy had, was loaded 4 deep on the shelves, with 8 pounders on the bottom shelf... frustrating to say the least, and to top it off, most powders were running under $20 per pound.
    That seems to verify your "unverified data".
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alangaq View Post
    On a related note, and also more unverified data, but I personally trust the source and think it is credible; explained to me that our current powder shortage is due in large part to changes that were made to the hazardous materials regulations back in 2009, that limit the amount of gun powder that can be shipped per barge to 400 lbs total. my source also went on to claim that currently only 2 barges arrive in the port of Anchorage each week, so that makes 800 lbs of powder, per week for the entire state (again, this is his data, not mine) which if true, goes a long way to explaining our current lack of product on the retailers' shelves.

    Let's for a moment assume that this scenario is true and accurate, and imagine 800 individual one pound containers of gun powder being distributed throughout the entire state.. Anchorage, Fairbanks, Bethel, Palmer, Wasilla, Kenia, Homer etc. etc. and its not hard to see that the 10 to 20 lbs getting dropped off at any one retailer, say Sporty's for example, is going to get snagged up pretty quick. Probably within the first day or two of hitting the shelves, and then that's it... nothing for another week, and the cycle repeats... Now, is this really how it works? I honestly don’t know as I am not in the barge business, nor the gun powder distribution business, but it does seem plausible, and worrisome...
    I knowed it war the gub'mint's doin.

    Stew'pit regulations, again.

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    having not seen bulk .223 for nearly a year i was definitely surprised to suddenly see a large pallet of it for sell on black friday at certain stores. nothing for a year and then overnight there's a surplus on the showroom floor. and to fan the speculation flame i've heard rumors where employees at sporting goods stores have bragged about how large their private supplies of 22lr have grown during the tumult. $85 for a brick...don't mind if i don't

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    I believe that the current shortage is primarily due to a whole lot more people that no longer believe the ammo or reloading supplies they will be wanting will be on the store shelves when they want them. I was caught by a primer shortage 30 some years ago and it ain't happen again. There are a bunch of folks that were caught right after the last two presidential elections that have apparently decided not to let that happen to them again. This will all end some day, but until this last bunch of folks that got caught have built their own inventory to their satisfaction, it will continue. How long is anyones guess at this point. I still pick up a little of this and a little of that as it becomes available because I won't depend on stores having what I want when I want it. Hindsight is 20/20 but in my case my foresight wasn't too bad either.

    Alaska doesn't have enough people in it to demand first priority on anything and 400lb limits on powder doesn't help. I haven't seen ammo being used in anywhere the volume that is being sold so I assume there is a bunch being stocked on private shelves. Hopefully it will return to normal soon but I'm not counting on it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ak-fang View Post
    having not seen bulk .223 for nearly a year i was definitely surprised to suddenly see a large pallet of it for sell on black friday at certain stores. nothing for a year and then overnight there's a surplus on the showroom floor. and to fan the speculation flame i've heard rumors where employees at sporting goods stores have bragged about how large their private supplies of 22lr have grown during the tumult. $85 for a brick...don't mind if i don't
    I posted in another thread already, but the young lady behind the gun counter at Sportsmans told me she had over 10,000 rounds of 22. And she didn't strike me as a competition shooter.

    But at least they sold me 100 when I bought my 10/22 TD.

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    Back in the "I never had sex with Monica" Billy Clinton era, I succumbed to this hysteria.Purchased 25,000 primers...anybody want to guess how many are still left?

    This insanity is like buying 6 of your favorite production rifles or shotguns....just in case they might discontinue those models.

    And what happens if/when they introduce an upgraded version?

    People should read "Who moved my cheese?"

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