I wanted to start a new thread to get this out clean. I just read a paper that is titled " Bayesian Decision Analysis for Evaluting Management Options to Promote Recovery of a Depleted Salmon Population" that was published in Conservation Biology Vol 22 No 2 351-361 2008. Authors are Lynsey R. Pestes, Randall M Peterman, Michael J Bradford, and Chris Wood. These guys are top notch (Simon Fraser University School of Resource and Environmental Management, Pacific Biological Station Nanaimo) and part of the abstract is below for your interest.
The endangered population of sockeye salmon (O. nerka) in Cultus Lake, B.C Canada migrates through commercial fishing areas along with other, much more abundant sockeye salmon populations, but it is not feasible to selectively harvest only the latter, abundant populations. This situation creates controversial trade-offs between recovery actions and economic revenue. We conducted a Bayesian decision analysis to evaluate options for recovery of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. ....We also quantified how much reduction in economic value of commercial harvests of the more abundant sockeye salmon populations would be expected for a given increase in the probability of recovery of the Cultus population.
This type of approach is what I would like to see in the trade-off discussion with UCI allocation and stock management options. For example what is the trade off of a 1000 chinook under an MSY goal vs going over the upper end of the sockeye goal by 500,000. This type of work could be invaluable to decision makers if ADF&G took the lead and got it done.