I thought I would start a new thread since the late run discussion was in the early run Didson thread.
First and foremost, I agree with ADF&G actions to not fish the commercial fishery and restrict the sport fishery on Kenai chinook at this time. There are a number of reasons why this is a good decision. First, the chinook run timing is in question and a few days for that to sort out is good. If the return is late and a strong August component is coming then the MSY goals will be met but higher than the minimum. Second, the Kenai sockeye return appears to be lower than forecast and there are no fish on the beach. So the chinook to sockeye ratio would be terrible and for little gain relative to the Kenai sockeye goals. Third, the Department has maintained the flexibility to respond with the ESSN commercial fishery if needed for meeting the sockeye goals if fish do come to the beach in late July or early August.
The next significant data point is what the drift gill net fleet catches on Thursday. I hope they fish District wide as that is the best indicator if Kenai sockeye are on forecast or significantly below forecast. The OTF program lost too many days to weather and mechanical issues to be useful right now so the drift fleet is the best indicator. Also, the Northern District sockeye appear to be meeting goals and coho appear strong. That is a win win for everyone.
So it is time to wait and see how this sorts out.